River City guide: See fair odds, picks, analysis and free PPs
With a full field of 12 horses expected in this Grade 3 clash, the River City at Churchill Downs has excellent potential for producing some nice prices.
We've got you covered with, Ed DeRosa's Fair Odds, Super Screener picks (including a surprising top pick) and analysis below.
But before we get into the picks, let's take a look at the best speed figures of 2023 for this group. If you want to check out HRN's Free Past Performances page, you can download free PPs courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
| Post | Horse | Beyer | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cellist | 97 | 119 | 107 |
| 2 | F Five | 87 | 113 | 104 |
| 3 | Red Run | 95 | 119 | 107 |
| 4 | Rockemperor | 99 | 121 | 112 |
| 5 | Kitodan | 89 | 117 | 103 |
| 6 | Smokin' T | 94 | 124 | 111 |
| 7 | Dominican Pioneer | 98 | 119 | 118 |
| 8 | Grand Sonata | 94 | 118 | 105 |
| 9 | Stitched | 94 | 125 | 111 |
| 10 | Injunction | 96 | 120 | 110 |
| 11 | Siege of Boston | 94 | 121 | 112 |
| 12 | Harlan Estate | 97 | 122 | 108 |
| 13 | Accredit | 95 | 123 | 110 |
| 14 | Beatbox | 94 | 121 | 109 |
| 15 | Street Ready | 80 | 112 | 99 |
Looking at the pace
The TimeformUS pace projector indicates the River City could have a fast pace, led by no. 7 Dominican Pioneer and no. 9 Stitched.
The HRN Pace Report gives the River City a pace rating of 78, which is the highest (fastest potential) rating on the Saturday card at Churchill Downs.
HRN picks: Liking the same long shot
It will be tough for Super Screener to top its performance from Breeders' Cup last week, but even just matching it would make for a spectacular follow-up.
The River City Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs is such a race with no. 8 Grand Sonata (6-1 morning line) and no. 12 Harlan Estate (15-1) catching the eyes of both the Super Screener and Ed DeRosa's fair odds.
"This productive colt has moved forward in every start following that 7-month layoff with form-cycle analysis informing us that he has one more incremental move forward coming into this race," Shutty says of Grand Sonata. "That will be aided by the 3-furlong cutback in distance versus what he ran in his last race against much, much tougher than he'll face here. Given the aggressive pace set up, he projects to sit a perfect trip off the pace early before closing that gap and overtaking the tiring leaders turning for home.
"A very reliable sort to build wagers around."
Super Screener is available every weekend with a $97 special now available that gets you the next 12 weeks through Pegasus at Gulfstream Park. That's just about $8 each week for nearly three months.
Here are Ed DeRosa's complete fair odds below.
Track Trends
Finally, looking at HRN's Post Position Bias Report, which is part of the HRN Pro Reports package, we can see that outside posts have been performing well at this 1 1/8-mile distance over the Churchill Downs turf course.