Fair odds: This horse offers value in evenly matched River City

With a full field expected for the Grade 3 River City Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs, the first thing I did to handicap this 1 1/8-mile turf race is use the Horse Racing Nation Track Trends tool.

It's a relatively small sample size with only 31 races in 2022-23, but I think the numbers show that pace-wise it is better to be farther back than up front, though there is no post advantage or disadvantage. Click the link above to see the figures.

In the most general sense, that leads me to dismiss cheap speed and handicap the also-eligible horses, nos. 13, 14 and 15, as if they're in the race because if they do draw in to the outside, post is not an impediment.

So the fair-odds line for this 15-horse field is as though all 15 horses are starting, even though only 12 of the 15 can go. Depending on who scratches, that can be anywhere from 6 percent to 42 percent of the probable winners. If long shots scratch, you can maybe move my shortest price horses up a point. If my personal, not morning-line, favorites scratch, then you accept even shorter prices on the logicals that remain.

I expect no. 12 Harlan Estate to offer the most value. His two races at Churchill aren't bad, but more important, that Turf Mile (G1) last out at Keeneland was insane with Breeders' Cup Turf runner-up Up to the Mark besting Breeders' Cup Mile winner Master of the Seas by a nose with Arlington Million winner Set Piece third. Harlan Estate sheds five pounds for this, and jockey Joe Ramos is by far Horseshoe Indianapolis's best turf jockey.

No. 11 Sieve of Boston I have as the most likely winner. At 5-1 fair odds versus 9-2 morning line, he is potentially usable, but the upside on our top pick Harlan Estate seems greater. Still, Siege of Boston has shown ability to adapt with his three wins coming gate-to-wire, mid-pack and as a deep closer.

Of the other morning-line long shots, no. 10 Injunction intrigues the most stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. This was a horse who was only 7-1 in the Clark (G1) last year, and now he makes his fourth career turf start third off the layoff.

No. 4 Rockemperor and no. 1 Cellist would not shock anybody, but based on morning line they are underlays and easy tosses from multi-race wagers at those morning-line odds.