Risen Star guide: 50 Derby points await Fair Grounds victor
The Kentucky Derby trail starts getting serious Saturday in the Grade 2, 1 1/8-mile Risen Star stakes for 3-year-olds on dirt. This early-season prep has been the coming-out party for many top stakes winners, from Lawyer Ron in 2006 to Gun Runner in 2016 and War of Will, Mandaloun, Epicenter, Two Phil's, Sierra Leone and Magnitude in more recent runnings.
A compact but competitive field of eight has drawn to race for the 50-25-15-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualifying points for the top five finishers. This means a win will all but guarantee a spot in the gate for the Derby.
Paladin comes into the race off a win in the Remsen (G2) last year for trainer Chad Brown. The son of Gun Runner is following the path of just-retired champion Sierra Leone, who won the Risen Star to kick off his 3-year-old season in 2024. Paladin has just two lifetime starts, both wins, though his maiden victory came by disqualification. Renegade, Todd Pletcher's Sam F. Davis winner, was set down for interference in the stretch in that maiden special weight at Aqueduct last September. He was unable to catch Paladin in the Remsen, however. The distance and post position should not be a problem for the pace-pressing colt.
Lecomte (G3) winner Golden Tempo is the local favorite. The Cherie DeVaux trainee has done everything right in his two career starts, both at the Fair Grounds. A son of Curlin, Golden Tempo should only improve as he gets older and as distances stretch out. His late-running style could be a setback if there's a slow pace setup, but that question could be answered here.
When it comes to the pace scenario, Carson Street will be the one to make the moves. This son of Street Sense contested the pace in the Lecomte from start to finish, only giving way in the final strides. Brendan Walsh has brought this colt along carefully through five starts, and he has already faced some talented colts – Incredibolt, Mesquite, Golden Tempo – in his brief career. Though the distance is a question for all of these young horses, if left alone on the lead Carson Street could take them all the way.
Gun Runner stakes winner Chip Honcho can be one of the colts who prevents Carson Street from a wire-to-wire run. The son of Connect was never worse than second until the Lecomte, where he pressed Carson Street and ran out of gas late. In the Gun Runner, he set just off the pace and rallied in deep stretch to win. He could be Steve Asmussen's top Derby shot if he can relax here, and blinkers are off.
Todd Pletcher's Risen Star entry is Courting, a son of Curlin who is a full brother to multiple graded-stakes winner Clairiere. The $500,000 yearling purchase has one win in three starts, all as a 2-year-old. His one stakes appearance was in the Remsen, where he was bumped at the start and had to navigate a tough trip to finish fourth. In his maiden win, he led from start to finish. Pletcher adds blinkers for this trip and jockey John Velazquez is in the saddle, so Courting will have every chance to prove he belongs on the Derby trail.
For more info on the rest of the Risen Star field, check out this horse-by-horse guide.
The Risen Star is race 12, post time 6:30 p.m. EST. TV coverage of the race will be on FanDuel TV.
Free past performances for the Sam F. Davis and Robert B. Lewis are courtesy of Brisnet.
Here are the top lifetime speed figures for the Risen Star entrants.
| No. | Horse | Beyer* | TFUS* | Brisnet | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universe | 82 | 107 | 91 | 107 |
| 2 | Golden Tempo | 81 | 101 | 88 | 111 |
| 3 | Carson Street | 79 | 105 | 87 | 108 |
| 4 | Paladin | 86 | 110 | 98 | 114 |
| 5 | Chip Honcho | 81 | 105 | 90 | 119 |
| 6 | Colt Forty Seven | 63 | 96 | 81 | 96 |
| 7 | Courting | 77 | 106 | 90 | 107 |
| 8 | Quality Mischief | 57 | 101 | 84 | 101 |
*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are provided courtesy of Daily Racing Form.
HRN Handicappers
HRN's Ed DeRosa thinks betting last-out prep also-rans is the value play in the Risen Star. Find out why.
Head-to-head handicappers Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis are split on the top three in the Risen Star. See their discussion here.
This week's Ron Flatter Racing Pod celebrates Black History month with guests Avery Johnson and Terry West. Johnson, a former NBA player, is a Breeders' Cup ambassador with lots of memories at Fair Grounds. West is a standout jumps rider and one of the first Black women to compete in Thoroughbred racing. Get their stories and much more on the pod this week.
The Risen Star is only one of a deep card of stakes races Saturday at Fair Grounds. Horse Racing Nation proudly sponsors the Fair Grounds Stakes (G2) on turf. Ed DeRosa has a quick analysis and wagering tips for our race this week.
And Super Screener's Mike Shutty takes on Hit Show in the Mineshaft - see who he has circled as an alternative pick.
Don't stop with the Risen Star - get the Super Screener for the whole Derby trail & more!