Risen Star fair odds: Previous prep also-rans merit 2nd chance

Both Chip Honcho and Universe entered their 3-year-old debuts with high expectations off solid performances in Kentucky Derby points races to conclude their 2-year-old seasons, but they both disappointed in those efforts.

There should be value on the pair in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds, where they will take on Remsen Stakes (G2) winner Paladin as well as Golden Tempo, who beat Chip Honcho in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) last out.

Chip Honcho won the Gun Runner Stakes but could muster no better than fourth behind Golden Tempo. Universe was second to Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) before doing little running as the 5-2 favorite in the Smarty Jones Stakes.

In the case of Chip Honcho, his Lecomte was better than it looks as he pressed a fast pace while five wide from the 10th post in a field of 10. Being by Connect out of a Magician mare, Chip Honcho should benefit from the stretchout to 1 1/8 miles. Trainer Steve Asmussen is known for bringing horses along on the Derby trail and popping later rather than sooner, as he did when winning the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby (G2) last year with Magnitude and Tiztastic, respectively. Throw in Asmussen legging up Luis Saez and taking off blinkers, and Chip Honcho is worth a bet.

Universe is a bit different in that his Smarty Jones was not better than it looks. It was just a complete dud no-show. So if you're willing to draw a line through it and bet the Ken McPeek trainee off what we saw as a 2-year-old, then he fits in here at a much more generous price than we got last time against seven others in the Smarty Jones. Like Chip Honcho, Universe also gets changes in equipment and jockey with blinkers coming off and Christopher Elliott hopping on.

Paladin is certainly the most likely winner, but the number power just isn't there to back this one at any odds shorter than his morning-line price of 8-5. Chip Honcho is sharper and might be able to control this race from the jump, which he was unable to do in the Lecomte. Paladin is forward for sure, but given the layoff I'm inclined to watch this one at a short price.

Golden Tempo obviously fits as well, but as a deep closer might not get the same setup here as in the Lecomte. If Paladin is fresh and presses Chip Honcho and Carson Street early, then that helps Golden Tempo's cause. But it also helps Universe's, and I'd rather take that one at likely at least twice the price.