Risen Star distance at Fair Grounds favors inside speed

For only the third time during the current Fair Grounds meeting, the New Orleans track will conduct a 1 1/8-mile race on the main track, the Grade 2 Risen Star. And while it’s interesting that the No. 1 post won both of those races so far, two races is hardly enough of a sample size.

So, we went back five years and found 23 total 9-furlong dirt races, and what’s interesting vis-a-vis that post stat above is that the rail is 3-for-4 going 1 1/8 miles the past year but only 1-for-19 before that.

Even more interesting, though, is how forward the winners are at this distance, with six gate-to-wire winners, another seven within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead at the first call, and all 23 winners no worse than fifth at that point in the race.

Of the 6 winning favorites, only Girvin in the 2017 Louisiana Derby was more than 1 1/2 lengths off the lead.

Here are the winners of the six 3-year-old races going 1 1/8 miles on the main track in the last 5 years at Fair Grounds:

9f races for 3yo on main track at Fair Grounds since 2017

The 13-race Risen Star card on Saturday at Fair Grounds has only one 1 1/8-mile race in the Risen Star Stakes itself, but there are four 1 1/16-mile races, including the Rachel Alexandra (G2) for 3-year-old fillies. The Risen Star and Rachel Alexandra are the first races of the Championship Series for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks, respectively.