Risen Star: Odds and analysis for Kentucky Derby prep

Saturday’s Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star is the third of four stops on the Fair Grounds road to Kentucky Derby 2024, and 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points are available to the top five eligible finishers.

Recent winners of the Risen Star form a star-studded list, with five Grade 1 winners, a Kentucky Derby victor and a horse of the year. Epicenter took the 2022 Risen Star and went on to victory in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and the Travers (G1) and was second in the run for the roses and the Preakness. In 2021 Mandaloun eventually was awarded the Kentucky Derby win and scored in the Haskell (G1). War of Will went on to win the 2019 Preakness. Gun Runner went from the 2016 Risen Star victory to be named 2017 horse of the year with earnings of almost $16 million.

Here is the analysis for the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star with the official track morning-line odds. It is scheduled as the finale on a 14-race card, with post time set for 7:17 p.m. EST.

1. Tizzy Indy, 50-1. Take Charge Indy – Keith Desormeaux / James Graham – 7: 1-1-1 - $53,750. Tizzy Indy broke his maiden in his fourth start as a 2-year-old, and that was in a $20,000 claimer. Since then, he was second in a starter allowance also at Churchill Downs and third on the turf. Tizzy Indy was fifth in the Lecomte (G3) on the Derby trail, getting 1 Derby point. Toss.

2. Awesome Ruta, 30-1. Mendelssohn – Joseph Foster / Mitchell Murrill – 6: 1-1-2 - $43,570. Awesome Ruta got his initial victory in his second start by nine lengths at Louisiana Downs. He was second by a neck in the Jean Lafitte going seven furlongs, which is around two turns at Delta Downs. In three subsequent allowance races his best finish was third last month. Toss.

3. Honor Marie, 6-1. Honor Code – Whit Beckman / Rafael Bejarano – 3: 2-1-0 - $318,175. Honor Marie is one of three horses in the field who have a 10-point victory on the road to the Derby. His was in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in November. All three of his races were at Churchill, including his debut maiden victory and a second in an allowance behind the Derby trail winner Otto the Conqueror. Honor Marie is the leading money earner in the field. He trained at Fair Grounds to prepare for his 2024 debut. Win contender.

4. Sierra Leone, 4-1. Gun Runner – Chad Brown / Tyler Gaffalione – 2: 1-1-0 - $96,750. Sierra Leone lived up to his $2.3 million yearling purchase price when he was a debut winner at Aqueduct in November, beating Change of Command who ran in the Sam F. Davis (G3) on Saturday. In December Sierra Leone moved onto the Derby trail in a strong edition of the Remsen (G2), where he rallied from last in the field of 10 to get the lead and then miss by a nose and pick up 5 Derby points. Chad Brown sent him to train in Florida, and he gets blinkers for his first start as a 3-year-old. Top choice.

5. Moonlight, 12-1. Audible – Todd Pletcher / Florent Geroux – 4: 1-2-0 - $125,500. Moonlight began his career on the turf at Saratoga, where he had the lead and ended up second by a neck. In September he switched to the main track at Aqueduct and won by eight lengths in a race that was meant for the grass. Moonlight moved to the Derby trail, where he closed for second in the Street Sense (G3) and then was fourth in the Remsen, giving him at total of 7 Derby points. He also is entered in race 3 earlier in the card at Fair Grounds. Trainer Todd Pletcher won the Risen Star three times, most recently in 2014 with Intense Holiday. Live long shot.

6. Real Men Violin, 8-1. Mendelssohn – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 6: 1-4-1 - $216,825. After finishing second or third in his first four starts, Real Men Violin broke his maiden going a mile at Churchill in October, defeating Track Phantom. Trainer Ken McPeek, who won the Risen Star in 2002, moved the son of Mendelssohn onto the Derby trail, where he got 5 qualifying points with a second in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Real Men Violin trained for the Risen Star with a recent bullet workout. Trifecta finish possible.

7. Hall of Fame, 6-1. Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 2: 1-1-0 - $60,000. Hall of Fame was the favorite in both of his starts as a $1.4 million yearling purchase and was a maiden winner in his second race by more than 10 lengths at the Fair Grounds a month ago. He earned a race-high speed figure with Lasix for the first time. Trainer Steve Asmussen has three wins in the Risen Star with the likes of Epicenter and Gun Runner. Toss.

8. Catching Freedom, 5-1. Constitution – Brad Cox / Luis Saez – 3: 2-0-0 - $237,350. Catching Freedom was favored to win all three races and did so twice. In October he was a maiden winner at Churchill by almost four lengths going the one-turn mile. In an allowance he had traffic problems and could do no better than fourth. In the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn he picked up 10 Derby points with a convincing victory from off the pace. Trainer Brad Cox also has three wins in the Risen Star, all in the last four years, led by Mandaloun. Win contender.

9. Cardinale, 12-1. Speightstown – Todd Pletcher / Flavien Prat – 2: 1-2-0 - $39,840. Cardinale was a debut winner at Gulfstream Park in November for Pletcher. He came back last month in an allowance at the Florida track, had the lead and lost a duel down the lane by a neck. Blinkers come off, and he will have to race without Lasix. Toss.

10. Resilience, 12-1. Accelerate – Bill Mott / John Velazquez – 4: 1-1-1 - $78,630. Resilience needed four times to break his maiden, which he did at Gulfstream on New Year’s Day by more than four lengths as the betting choice. Trainer Bill Mott won the Risen Star twice, most recently in 2020 when it was run in two divisions. Toss.

11. Track Phantom, 7-2. Quality Road – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 5: 3-1-1 - $285,000. Track Phantom won his last three starts moving from a maiden at Churchill in his third career start to the Kentucky Derby trail, where he won the Gun Runner and the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds. With 30 points, he is currently in second place on the Derby leaderboard. The one to beat.

12. Bee Dancer, 20-1. Bee Jersey – Dallas Stewart / Corey Lanerie – 1: 1-0-0 - $36,000. Bee Dancer will make a big step up in class from his debut maiden victory at Fair Grounds last month to face this large field that includes several stakes winners. Drawing the far outside certainly did not make the task any easier for Bee Jersey as he stretches out from a sprint. Toss.

Summary: The Risen Star drew the best field for a Kentucky Derby prep this year, with three horses who have a total of four victories on the Derby trail and four others who have earned qualifying points.

Track Phantom is the only horse with two victories on the Derby trail, which he did against a pair of small fields. The morning-line favorite will go for his fourth win overall in a row against this salty field of 12.

Sierra Leone and Moonlight made their last starts in the Remsen, and they are the only two horses with races going the 1 1/8-mile distance of this Fair Grounds prep race. Sierra Leone had a dynamic closing move in that race at Aqueduct and could make the last and best move in the Risen Star. Sierra Leone is the top choice.