Risen Star Stakes 2020: Odds and analysis
Having drawn 23 entries for the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes, Fair Grounds officials decided to split the season’s first major 2020 Kentucky Derby prep into a pair of divisions running next Saturday.
Given that both races will carry the full, original purse money, they will also allot Derby qualifying points to their top four finishers on a 50-20-10-5 basis.
In the first flight, the Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner Enforceable gets a rematch with the likes of Silver State and Mr. Monomoy, while Blackberry Wine and Digital join out of the local allowance ranks.
The second division is headlined by Anneau d’Or, who finished second in both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He’s searching for his first dirt win with stakes hero Liam’s Lucky Charm among his rivals.
Below, find analysis for both 1 1/8-mile races with projected morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation.
Risen Star Division I (Race 12, 6:38 p.m. ET)
1. Digital, 8-1 (Into Mischief – Bret Calhoun/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 3: 1-2-0)
2. Silver State, 4-1 (Hard Spun – Steven Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 3: 1-2-0)
3. Ready to Roll, 20-1 (City Zip – Bret Calhoun/Gabriel Saez – 3: 1-0-1)
4. Perfect Revenge, 30-1 (I Want Revenge – Saffie Joseph Jr./Shaun Bridgmohan) – 8: 1-2-0)
5. Moon Over Miami, 20-1 (Malibu Moon – Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado – 3: 1-0-0)
6. Shashashakemeup, 20-1 (Shackleford – Keith Desormeaux/James Graham – 3: 1-0-0)
7. Blackberry Wine, 3-1 (Oxbow – Joe Sharp/Adam Beschizza – 6: 2-0-3)
8. Enforceable, 7/2 (Tapit – Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux – 7: 2-1-2)
9. Mr. Monomoy, 8-1 (Palace Malice – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux – 4: 1-1-1)
10. Farmington Road, 20-1 (Quality Road – Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano – 3: 1-1-0)
11. Scabbard, 12-1 (More Than Ready – Eddie Kenneally/Joel Rosario – 5: 1-2-0)
Analysis: Earlier in last month’s Lecomte Stakes card, Blackberry Wine won a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer in 1:43.22. Enforceable later finished the feature in 1:43.72.
With that in mind, it is tough to ignore Blackberry Wine. Visually, he showed a ton of heart in that win as well by battling back against Digital in the stretch. Blackberry Wine lost the lead but recaptured it in mid-stretch, inching ahead by a length.
Also check out Blackberry Wine’s Nov. 30 win on the slop. He broke his maiden by 5 ¾ lengths at Churchill Downs over another future stakes runner, Shared Sense.
Silver State deserves another shot after bobbling at the break of the Lecomte, causing him to lose position and settle back in ninth early on. After encountering traffic problems on the far turn, he finally made his rally and closed for second.
With a clean break and trip, Silver State can rebound to win. But it could also turn out that he is a habitually poor gate horse.
As for Enforceable, his deep closing style is a turnoff. But with some pace to run into, it is not hard to imagine him contending again late. His slow, grinding style gives the impression that he will finish underneath more often than not.
Mr. Monomoy could also make some noise after his third in the Lecomte.
On paper, this is a logical race with no real huge surprises waiting.
Risen Star Division II (Race 13, 7:12 p.m. ET)
1. Modernist, 12-1 (Uncle Mo – Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado – 3: 1-0-1)
2. Truculent, 15-1 (Raison d’Etat – Jack Sisterson/Declan Carroll – 3: 2-1-0)
3. Mr. Big News, 20-1 (Giant’s Causeway – Bret Calhoun/Robby Albarado – 4: 1-1-0)
4. Fame to Famous, 20-1 (Tapit – John McAllen/Colby Hernandez – 5: 1-1-1)
5. Liam’s Lucky Charm, 8-1 (Khozan – Ralph Nicks/Edgard Zayas – 6: 3-1-2)
6. Excession, 12-1 (Union Rags – Steven Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 7: 1-0-3)
7. Major Fed, 15-1 (Ghostzapper – Greg Foley/Julien Leparoux – 2: 1-0-1)
8. Anneau d’Or, 3-1 (Medaglia d’Oro – Blaine Wright/Joel Rosario – 3: 1-2-0)
9. Lynn’s Map, 9/2 (Liam’s Map – Mark Casse/Corey Lanerie – 4: 2-0-1
10. Finnick the Fierce, 8-1 (Dialed In – Rey Hernandez/Sonny Leon – 4: 1-1-0)
11. Mailman Money, 8-1 (Goldencents – Bret Calhoun/Luis Saez – 2: 2-0-0)
12. Ny Traffic, 15-1 (Cross Traffic – Saffie Joseph Jr./Javier Castellano – 5: 2-0-1)
Analysis: Anneau d’Or is an obvious contender, but there is a flaw in his record. In three starts, he lacks a single dirt win. While he finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), he arguably hung in both races. Whenever a closer takes dead aim at the leader and fails to get by, it is a red flag.
With synthetic and turf horses, it is even more concerning because sometimes they cannot grip dirt surfaces as well. Think about Dullahan in the Kentucky Derby. Note, however, that Anneau d’Or adds blinkers for the Risen Star in hopes that could buck the trend.
One interesting name that could upset Anneau d’Or is Modernist, who broke his maiden in a Jan. 25 maiden race at Aqueduct by four lengths. He traveled nine furlongs in that race, giving him the proper experience for this distance.
For those interested in pedigree analysis, Modern’s dam Symbolic Gesture is a half-sister to Life Is Sweet, the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic champion.
Another up-and-comer is Liam’s Lucky Charm. On Jan. 18, this Khozan colt won the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs by 5 ½ lengths. Back on Aug. 31, he also defeated future Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner Chance It in the Florida Sire Affirmed Stakes. The two of them finished 17 ¾ lengths ahead of third.
The question is whether Liam’s Lucky Charm can stretch out. But he is one option to consider for now.
Major Fed broke his maiden at 1 1/16 miles by four lengths on this track.
As with Enforceable, Finnick the Fierce’s grinding style means he is always a threat to hit the board. Any trifecta or superfecta ticket needs him.
Another to include is Mailman Money, who’s undefeated in two starts. Those two races include a win over Digital in a six-furlong Churchill Downs maiden and a local score by 5 ¾ lengths over one mile and seventy yards in an off-the-turf optional claimer.
Playing the horses can be a rewarding but tough game. Exacta, trifectas, superfectas, Pick 4s, Pick 5s -- there are so many wagers to play, it can get overly confusing. How do you know how much to play or which wagers to try?