Risen Star: Speed succeeds in this Kentucky Derby prep
Good news for Track Phantom. As he has shown twice already, the main track at Fair Grounds is not just for closers anymore.
That was the old reputation the New Orleans racecourse brought 11 years ago to the dawning of the Kentucky Derby points era. The Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, which will be run Saturday for the 52nd time, was a microcosm.
Like the Lecomte (G3) and to a lesser degree the Louisiana Derby (G2), the Risen Star was kind to horses coming from off the pace, especially with a 449-yard homestretch that is second-longest only to Los Alamitos among Derby prep courses. Five consecutive winners from 2013 to 2017 made up at least four lengths in that long run to the wire.
Then came War of Will in 2019. His stalking style signaled a new trend that held true five times in a row, including both divisions of the oversubscribed renewal in 2020, when the Risen Star was lengthened from 1 1/16 to 1 1/8 miles. Each winner was in first place or within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead at every call.
Angel of Empire broke the trend last year when he rallied from ninth place to score a 13-1 upset victory, but that proved to be the rare exception. Of the last 16 Fair Grounds points preps, including the Gun Runner, the Lecomte, the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, 13 were won by horses that were on the lead or no more than two lengths behind. Seven of those 13 were gate-to-wire winners.
These were the Risen Star winners so far in the Kentucky Derby points era:
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Angel of Empire | 9 - 6 1/4 | 9 - 5 3/4 | 7 - 4 3/4 | 3 - 1/2 | 1 | 13-1 |
| 2022 | Epicenter | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7-2 |
| 2021 | Mandaloun | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 2 | 3 - 1 | 1 | 1 | f 2-1 |
| 2020 | Mr. Monomoy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12-1 |
| Modernist | 2 - hd | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 7-1 | |
| 2019 | War of Will | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1* | f 1-1 |
| 2018 | Bravazo | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 2 - hd | 2 - hd | 1* | 21-1 |
| 2017 | Girvin | 5 - 6 | 5 - 9 1/2 | 4 - 5 1/2 | 1 | 1* | 8-1 |
| 2016 | Gun Runner | 5 - 4 | 4 - 4 1/2 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1* | 5-1 |
| 2015 | International Star | 6 - 6 | 6 - 6 1/2 | 5 - 4 1/2 | 1 | 1* | 7-2 |
| 2014 | Intense Holiday | 8 - 5 1/2 | 7 - 6 | 7 - 3 1/4 | 3 | 1* | 5-1 |
| 2013 | Ive Struck a Nerve | 12 - 8 3/4 | 11 - 7 | 9 - 6 3/4 | 5 - 2 1/4 | 1* | 135-1 |
| Source: Equibase | |||||||
| *1 1/16 miles | |||||||
| 1 1/8 since 2020 | |||||||
| f - favorite |
All this builds a big case for Track Phantom, the 7-2 morning-line favorite Saturday. He stayed within a head of the strong, early pace of 23.61 and 46.93 seconds before seizing the lead Dec. 23 en route to winning the Gun Runner. Then last month over the same course and 1 1/16-mile distance, his fractions were a more pedestrian 24.01, 48.36 and 1:13.15 on the way to his gate-to-wire triumph by 2 3/4 lengths over even-money favorite Nash in the Lecomte.
“It was great to see him win the race against a talented field but especially with going as fast as they did early and showing enough quality to still respond,” Track Phantom’s trainer Steve Asmussen told the Fair Grounds media department. “I think the Lecomte was as easy on him as you could have wanted it to be, with him still getting something out of it.”
That early display of versatility by Track Phantom cannot go unnoticed.
“He’s done something that very few horses can do, which is to be able to lead through a mile-and-a-sixteenth in a contested pace and be able to lead all the way in a soft pace,” said FanDuel TV analyst Caton Bredar, who has been at Fair Grounds most of this season. “So he’s obviously pretty adaptable and also likes the racetrack no matter how you slice it. I think he’s a nice horse, and I do think he’s a deserving favorite, but I also think that in this particular situation, based on what I’ve seen over the last week with weather conditions and everything else, I think it’s going to be a fair racetrack. If Track Phantom were to somehow get the lead all to himself, I think he would be extremely tough. But I don’t really envision that happening.”
Ten-length maiden winner Hall of Fame might try to contest the pace. Past performances suggest long shots Cardinale and Bee Dancer will do the same. How much they engage Track Phantom for the early lead will say a lot about who wins Saturday.
One thing working against Track Phantom in the Risen Star is his draw. The $500,000 Quality Road colt who has a record of 5: 3-1-1 has not started from wider than post 7 until now. This weekend he and jockey Joel Rosario will be challenged to find the early advantage from post 11 in the 12-horse field for the Risen Star, which was lengthened to give those starters on the far outside a fairer shot going through the first turn.
History aside, Bredar felt like recent results have demonstrated Fair Grounds to be less favorable to early pacesetters and more equitable for other styles.
“I’m not positive the track is going to play exactly the same on Saturday for the Risen Star that it has played in years past or even earlier in the meet, when I think speed was a little bit better than it is at the moment,” she said.
Bredar also predicted horses like Remsen (G2) runner-up Sierra Leone, Smarty Jones winner Catching Freedom and Kentucky Jockey Club (G1) victor Honor Marie, all of whom will come from off the pace, may have a tough time channeling Fair Grounds’ old image as a haven for closers.
“It’s still a tall order to have to do all your running through the stretch, even with a mile-and-an-eighth to work with,” she said. “Not that it can’t be done, but that’s a tall order. Everything kind of has to go right.”