Risen Star: See what styles win, translate to Kentucky Derby
Put aside the possibility that last year’s Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes winner Mandaloun may yet wind up as the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby if the late Medina Spirit is disqualified for a failed drug test. That remains a bone of contention involving regulators and lawyers – and a possibility that could become reality any day now.
The timing feels appropriate, considering the Risen Star will be run again Saturday at Fair Grounds, just three years after the race produced an asterisked Derby winner.
It was 2019 when Country House came in second in New Orleans – and again, for that matter, less than three months later at Churchill Downs. Then came the 22-minute wait for Kentucky stewards to disqualify first-place finisher Maximum Security for interference. When that number came down, Country House went up as the second Risen Star graduate to win the Derby.
War Emblem’s legacy was much less complicated. After he finished sixth in the 2002 Risen Star, his one-gear, front-running style took him to victories that spring in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
The Risen Star’s ring of honor extends beyond successes at Churchill Downs. Master Derby in 1975 and War of Will in 2019 each pulled off the Risen Star-Preakness double. In 2013, both Preakness winner Oxbow and Belmont Stakes victor Palace Malice made up the back end of the superfecta in the Risen Star.
Two other winners of the Louisiana race, Mucho Macho Man and Gun Runner, went beyond the Triple Crown with victories as older horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Gun Runner, in fact, became an Eclipse Award-winning Horse of the Year.
The Risen Star used to carry a reputation as being a haven for closers. Not anymore. Its last five winners, including both divisions of an oversubscribed renewal in 2020, showed early speed. So much for the perception that coming from behind was the most likely way to win at Fair Grounds, where the 449-yard homestretch is second on the Derby trail only to the 460-yard run home at Los Alamitos.
Long also is a word that describes the last four runnings of the Risen Star. Partly to answer critics – and trainers – who said races with a short run to the first turn were unfair to horses drawn wide, all the Fair Grounds preps were extended. The Risen Star went from its traditional 1 1/16-mile distance to 1 1/8 miles.
When it was a shorter race, War of Will’s stalking trip was more the exception than the 8 1/2-furlong rule. In eight of the last 14 Risen Stars run at the old distance at Fair Grounds, the winner came from six or more lengths behind. Two others had to make up at least three lengths.
Here are the past-performance lines for the Risen Star winners since 2000 with their placing at each call and lengths behind when trailing, according to Equibase:
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Mandaloun | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 2 | 3 - 1 | 1 | 1** |
| 2020 | Mr. Monomoy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1** |
| Modernist | 2 - hd | 2- 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 - 1 1/2 | 1** | |
| 2019 | War of Will | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2018 | Bravazo | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 2 - hd | 2 - hd | 1 |
| 2017 | Girvin | 5 - 6 | 5 - 9 1/2 | 4 - 5 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2016 | Gun Runner | 5 - 4 | 4 - 4 1/2 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2015 | International Star | 6 - 6 | 6 - 6 1/2 | 5 - 4 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2014 | Intense Holiday | 8 - 5 1/2 | 7 - 6 | 7 - 3 1/4 | 3 | 1 |
| 2013 | I've Struck a Nerve | 12 - 8 3/4 | 11 - 7 | 9 - 6 3/4 | 5 - 2 1/4 | 1 |
| 2012 | El Padrino | 4 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 3 | 3 - 2 | 2 - hd | 1 |
| 2011 | Mucho Macho Man | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2010 | Discreetly Mine | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2009 | Friesan Fire | 3 - 1 1/2 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 4 - 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | Pyro | 10 - 5 1/2 | 11 - 5 3/4 | 11 - 8 3/4 | 8 - 4 1/4 | 1 |
| 2007 | Notional | 8 - 7 3/4 | 8 - 3 1/4 | 5 - 2 | 2 - 1 | 1 |
| *2006 | Lawyer Ron | 2 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2005 | Scipion | 11 - 10 3/4 | 11 - 9 3/4 | 10 - 8 | 7 - 5 1/4 | 1 |
| 2004 | Gradepoint | 6 - 6 | 6 - 10 | 6 - 9 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 1 |
| 2003 | Badge of Silver | 2 - 1 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2002 | Repent | 8 - 8 1/4 | 8 - 7 1/2 | 8 - 6 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 1 |
| 2001 | Dollar Bill | 4 - 4 | 3 - 4 1/2 | 3 - 5 | 2 - 2 1/2 | 1 |
| 2000 | Exchange Rate | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| *Louisiana Downs | ||||||
| All others at FG | ||||||
| **1 1/18 miles | ||||||
| 2000-’19: 1 1/16 mi |
The recent success of early speed in the Risen Star plays well in the Kentucky Derby, which has favored front-running horses since qualifying points were established for prep races nine years ago.
Even so, since the race was extended to nine furlongs three years ago, only 4 of 10 (40 percent) of the Risen Star finishers who went on to the Derby carried E (early) or E/P (early/presser) Quirin Speed Points designations that go to pacesetters and stalkers.
It was more skewed to closers from 2000 to 2018, when 26 of 39 (67 percent) Risen Star graduates who started in the Derby had P (presser) or S (sustaining) styles belonging to horses making up ground late.
Following are the pre-Kentucky Derby Quirin Speed Points and the results for Risen Star horses who raced in the Derby since 2000, according to the Churchill Downs online media guide:
| Year | Horse | Quirin | RS | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Mandaloun | P 7 | 1st | 2nd |
| O Besos | S 3 | 4th | 5th | |
| Midnight Bourbon | E 8 | 3rd | 6th | |
| 2020 | Mr. Big News | S 0 | 5th | 3rd |
| Enforceable | S 0 | 2nd | 7th | |
| Ny Traffic | E 7 | 3rd | 8th | |
| Major Fed | P 2 | 2nd | 10th | |
| 2019 | Country House | S 0 | 2nd | 1st |
| War of Will | E/P 5 | 1st | 7th | |
| Plus Que Parfait | E/P 2 | 13th | 8th | |
| 2018 | Instilled Regard | P 3 | 4th | 4th |
| Bravazo | E/P 5 | 1st | 6th | |
| Noble Indy | E/P 7 | 3rd | 17th | |
| 2017 | Untrapped | P 2 | 2nd | 12th |
| Girvin | P 1 | 1st | 13th | |
| 2016 | Gun Runner | P 4 | 1st | 3rd |
| Mo Tom | S 0 | 3rd | 8th | |
| Tom's Ready | S 1 | 7th | 12th | |
| 2015 | Keen Ice | S 1 | 3rd | 7th |
| War Story | P 1 | 2nd | 16th | |
| 2014 | Commanding Curve | P 1 | 6th | 2nd |
| Intense Holiday | P 2 | 1st | 12th | |
| Vicar's in Trouble | E/P 5 | 3rd | 19th | |
| 2013 | Golden Soul | S 2 | 6th | 2nd |
| Normandy Invasion | S 2 | 5th | 4th | |
| Mylute | E/P 4 | 7th | 5th | |
| Oxbow | E 4 | 4th | 6th | |
| Palace Malice | P 3 | 3rd | 12th | |
| 2012 | Optimizer | S 0 | 9th | 11th |
| El Padrino | P 5 | 1st | 13th | |
| 2011 | Mucho Macho Man | E/P 6 | 1st | 3rd |
| Santiva | E/P 4 | 2nd | 6th | |
| Pants On Fire | E/P 5 | 6th | 9th | |
| Decisive Moment | E 8 | 5th | 14th | |
| 2010 | Discreetly Mine | E 8 | 1st | 13th |
| 2009 | Nowhere to Hide | P 3 | 4th | 17th |
| Friesan Fire | E/P 6 | 1st | 18th | |
| 2008 | Pyro | S 1 | 1st | 8th |
| Z Fortune | P 2 | 2nd | 10th | |
| Visionaire | S 3 | 3rd | 12th | |
| 2007 | Imawildandcrazyguy | P 0 | 2nd | 4th |
| Circular Quay | S 0 | 5th | 6th | |
| Zanjero | S 3 | 3rd | 12th | |
| 2006 | Lawyer Ron | E/P 6 | *1st | 12th |
| 2005 | Buzzards Bay | E/P 3 | 10th | 5th |
| 2004 | ||||
| 2003 | Lone Star Sky | P 3 | 2nd | 15th |
| 2002 | War Emblem | E 6 | 6th | 1st |
| It'sallinthechase | S 0 | 5th | 16th | |
| 2001 | Fifty Stars | S 0 | 5th | 9th |
| Dollar Bill | P 2 | 1st | 15th | |
| 2000 | Exchange Rate | E/P 5 | 1st | 12th |
| E - Early (pacesetter) | ||||
| E/P - Early presser (stalker) | ||||
| P - Presser (mid-pack) | ||||
| S - Sustainer (closer) | ||||
| *Race at Louisiana Downs | ||||
| All others at Fair Grounds |
If recent form holds, forward-running horses such as Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner Slow Down Andy or Lecomte (G3) runner-up Epicenter could find the Risen Star to their liking. If, instead, the race reverts to the closing form that has been a familiar path to the Fair Grounds winner’s circle, that could bode well for Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) victor Smile Happy or Lecomte third-place finisher Pappacap.