Rich Strike will tell Reed if he should go to Dubai World Cup

Lexington, Ky.

A familiar face showed up again at Mercury Equine Center on Monday.

“Rich Strike is back,” trainer Eric Reed declared Tuesday morning after watching last year’s 80-1 Kentucky Derby winner get out on the five-furlong training track for the first time this year.

After spending 45 days on the Hill ’n’ Dale at Xalapa farm about 20 miles away in Paris, Ky., Rich Strike was eased back to work toward a 4-year-old debut on March 25 at the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1). Maybe.

“That’s what our target is to go to if things go well. If he’s fit,” Reed told Horse Racing Nation. “If he lost more conditioning than I thought, that’s going to be awful hard to make. But if he didn’t, then that’s what we’re looking at.”

It was the first time Reed suggested there could be a plan B if a visit to the Middle East might come too soon. The $1 million Oaklawn Handicap (G2), a 1 1/8-mile race April 22 for 4-year-olds and up, is the alternative.

“That would suit him real well and kind of kickstart us to get to the race at Churchill,” Reed said.

He was talking about the $750,000 Stephen Foster, the July 1 race that was just reclassified from a Grade 2 to a Grade 1. Reed also scheduled Rich Strike to go to Saratoga on Aug. 5 for the $1.2 million Whitney (G1), back to Churchill Downs on Sept. 30 for the $500,000 Lukas Classic (G2) and then presumably call it a career Nov. 4 in the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita.

“That’s my plan,” Reed said. “But trainers know nothing, right? Richie will tell us what to do, but it looks like a five-race year for him.”

The Keen Ice colt was eager to get back to work. Flicking his head around during his two laps Tuesday, he seemed more in the mood to cut loose than take what may as well have been a leisurely stroll on a cool, gray morning.

“He went a half-mile jog, and then he went like a real, easy mile-and-a-half,” Reed said. “Just a canter to let him loosen up. Don’t overdo it his first day back and make his muscles all sore the rest of the week. You know Richie wants to overtrain. He was a little handful. He had his head cocked. He wanted to go. The last half-mile we let him have a normal gallop just a little bit. Tomorrow he’ll get a regular gallop.”

Reed said it would be a lot more of that until a fully timed, half-mile breeze Jan. 23 at Mercury.

“We’ll see how he gallops out and how tired he is,” Reed said. “That’s the big unknown. When I got that horse in September (2021), he’s never gone over four days without a saddle and a rider. Ever. I don’t know how much conditioning he lost in the 45 days. Even after the Derby, we had to go back after two days, because he’s one of those horses that wants to train. The conditioning part is easy. It’s just how much did he lose in 45 days? I don’t know that yet.”

Reed had intended to give Rich Strike a 60-day break after a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland. That was before he and owner Rick Dawson decided to take one more shot last year in the Clark (G1). It backfired with a last-place finish Nov. 25 that was followed by a diagnosis of a respiratory problem.

“He coughed like five times in the test barn cooling out,” Reed said. “When (jockey) Sonny (León) came back off of him, the first thing he said was, ‘You should scope him, because he’s not the same horse.’ … He didn’t continue to cough like a horse that bleeds. It was spaced out more. That made me nervous that maybe he has some mucus or something.”

Reed said veterinarian Dr. Alan Dorton had trouble inserting the scope into Rich Strike’s throat because the breathing passages were so clogged.

“We knew it was not good,” Reed said. “When he finally got the scope down his trachea, he showed me. I’ve seen enough of it over the years, and it was a lot. … The horse was healthy other than having this mucus. He said (the clog) was a four out of five, and it was no chance that he could perform at all.”

As he was saying that, Reed knew he might be criticized for coming up with an alibi for another loss, especially since Rich Strike was defeated in all five of his starts after the Derby with only one in-the-money finish.

“I don’t want to make excuses,” Reed said. “He got beat.”

Now in his 39th year training horses in his name, Reed looked forward to an ambitious calendar of races in 2023, one he believed would set up well for Rich Strike, at least from a scheduling standpoint.

“I think the timing is good, plus two races here at home,” Reed said. “That really doesn’t allow but one big ship, and that would be to New York. … That’ll give him the time to get back and freshen. He won’t travel near as much and won’t run near as much as last year.”

From nine starts in 2022 to five in 2023, there still would be that one long flight to the Middle East this spring. That is if plan A remained in place for Rich Strike’s first race in nearly five months.

“They’re sending me a list this week of what it looks like it’s going to be over there, so that’ll help convince us to go,” said Reed, who is well aware Eclipse Award finalist Taiba is likely to be in the mix. “Richie will tell me to go or not, because there’s no reason to go that far and put that trip on him. It’s hard on horses to come out of there. If he ran (in Dubai), he would have had plenty of time to get over it for the Stephen Foster. But we’re not going to run him if he’s not ready.”

Consider the Dubai World Cup, then, to be a definite maybe for Rich Strike. His future contains no guarantees of any more wins, but his legacy that was written last May 7 remains intact.

“There’s a whole lot of them that win the Derby and don’t win again,” Reed said. “He’s validated himself with the races after the Derby. If he stays healthy this year, there’s no reason that he won’t have big races. And bigger efforts.”