Rich Strike draws 21, Derby makes bankroll bust

At the eighth pole it looked as if we’d get the showdown we were expecting with Epicenter digging in against Zandon.

My top pick, Tiz the Bomb, was not gaining ground so my mind furiously raced through the machinations of my exotic wagering strategy: Epicenter, Zandon, Tiz the Bomb, and Pioneer of Medina. Two of them were there, and even though they were among the top choices I knew I had peppered in 80-1 Rich Strike with the horses on my grid.

“3-10-21 would be alright,” I thought as it looked like Epicenter would hold sway over Zandon. And he did. But for place. Rich Strike went by and I lost. So did a lot of other people. That’s what happens when 80-1 shots win.

And this one wasn’t impossible. I figured him for around 100-to-1 and certainly gave him a better shot than a few others. More importantly, I saw him in the mix as a clunk up candidate. He didn’t clunk, though, he accelerated, and my approach to include him as a sort of “saver” underneath was not good enough to cash in.

The only other solace I have about my handicapping is that Rich Strike did come out of the same race as my top pick. Tiz the Bomb won the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park with Tawny Port second and Rich Strike third. To say Rich Strike ran the best of that trio would be putting it mildly, but he is now the third next-out winner from the race.

My other “A”, #11 Pioneer of Medina, was terrible. I took a shot at 50-1, and I guess that ends up looking better in the face of an 80-1 winning, but never really in the front half of the field at any point is not what you want out of an “A” regardless of price.

It’s 364 days until the next Kentucky Derby. It’s the race everyone wants to get right. I don’t like getting it wrong, but I hate feeling like money was left on the table even more. It’s real stretch to think any of my opinions could have gotten there this year, so the concern shifts to how to be better at this in 2023.