Report card: Rating Triple Crown class of ’25 vs. older horses

Sovereignty may be the reigning horse of the year, and Journalism will be among the top choices next week in the Grade 1 Met Mile at Saratoga. But the two popular rivals still have one big item at the top of their to-do lists.

They have yet to win a race against older horses.

In Sovereignty’s case, the sample size is small. A fever kept the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner from starting in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar. In his first race at age 4, he finished second to 7-year-old multimillionaire White Abarrio last month in the Oaklawn Handicap (G3).

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Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott said that was more about coming off a long layoff and into an early speed duel with Journalism than it was about facing older competition.

“He ran hard,” Mott said. “Probably got a little tired. He’d been off eight months.”

Even so, winning in open company remains a crucible for the Triple Crown class of 2025, especially in top-level assignments. Of the 29 horses who ran in the Derby, Preakness or Belmont last year, seven have tested the waters since in Grade 1 and Group 1 races. Their combined record is 10: 0-2-1.

Preakness winner Journalism, who also was the runner-up in the Derby and Belmont, finished second to Fierceness in last year’s Pacific Classic (G1). Six months after his 16th-place result in the Kentucky Derby, Citizen Bull was second to stablemate Nysos in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Heart of Honor, who was fifth in the Preakness and sixth in the Belmont, finished third Jan. 23 in the Al Maktoum Challenge (G1) at Meydan.

No one would dare suggest that hitting the board in a Group 1 race during the Dubai winter put Heart of Honor is in the same league as Sovereignty and Journalism. Flying Mohawk, who was 18th in the Derby, does not exactly rise to the head of the class. Nevertheless, success against older competition remains an elusive goal for 4-year-old alumni of the U.S. classics, especially in what appears to be an exceptional year.

“You’ve got depth to the handicap division that I don’t think we’ve seen in quite some time,” said Aron Wellman of Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, co-owner of Journalism. “It’s a real testament to the owners and connections of horses in the handicap division staying in training this year. We’re starting to, as an industry, really recognize those gestures by the connections for keeping all these horses in training.”

Burnham Square, who came home sixth in Kentucky Derby, is the only Triple Crown graduate from 2025 who has won a graded stakes at age 4. In fact, he has done it twice, scoring April 18 in the Elkhorn (G2) at Keeneland and May 16 in the Louisville (G3) at Churchill Downs.

The common denominator to those recent trips to the winner’s circle was grass. Even with a Grade 1 dirt win in the 2025 Blue Grass, trainer Ian Wilkes figured the long-term future for the Liam’s Map colt was on the turf, especially as an older horse. He made the switch last summer, when Burnham Square finished a close second in the Nashville Derby Invitational (G3) at Kentucky Downs.

“He was very professional again,” Wilkes said this month after the Louisville victory. “He’s bred to do just this, go long on the grass. Distance is his forte. We’ll work backwards from the Breeders’ Cup Turf and go to Kentucky Downs as well as the Arlington Million (G1).”

Magnitude is the successful 4-year-old whose absence from this list is impossible to miss. An ankle chip knocked him off the Triple Crown trail last year, but he has more than made up for it. He is 3-for-3 against older competition. He was the first 3-year-old to win the Clark (G2) since 2016. Then came his victorious 4-year-old debut in the Razorback Handicap (G3). That set up the biggest triumph of his career in the Dubai World Cup (G1).

In his first start since returning from the Middle East, Magnitude is expected to line up in the Stephen Foster (G1) on June 27 at Churchill Downs. Sovereignty, Baeza and White Abarrio also are considered by the track’s racing office as potential starters in what shapes up to be a championship race.

“It’s good to see him come into himself,” trainer Steve Asmussen presciently said in November after the Clark. “He’s just in that physical development. Always had a lot of talent and got a tremendous frame to him. We’re excited about the prospects for him as an older horse.”

Even if the active classic horses from 2025 are chasing Magnitude, it is not as if they have been completely lacking foundational results against older competition. After their surprising early pace battle last month, Sovereignty and Journalism still beat three other older horses when they came in second and third in the Oaklawn Handicap. In his starts against 17 horses who are 4 and up, Journalism has beaten 11 of them.

Trainer Michael McCarthy is not lacking for confidence about Journalism’s future in the division. Before going to Oaklawn, he said he was seeing more and more of a resemblance to the colt’s Hall of Fame sire Curlin.

“Bigger horse, stronger horse,” McCarthy said. “Things are coming to him easier all the time.”