Odds & analysis: More than just rematch in Grade 1 Alabama

The 3-year-old filly division will race at the classic distance of a 1 1/4 miles in the Grade 1 $600,000 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday.

All but one of this year’s field of seven are graded-stakes winners. The race includes a rematch between the Grade 1 winners Malathaat and Maracuja, who were separated by only a head when Maracuja won the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) on July 24 at Saratoga.

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Trainer Kenny McPeek will try and win the Alabama for the third time in the last four years with Crazy Beautiful. In last year’s non-traditional racing schedule, Swiss Skydiver notched her first career Grade 1 victory for McPeek in the Alabama on the way to her divisional championship.

Here is a full field analysis for the Alabama with odds provided by the Horse Racing Nation staff.

1. Crazy Beautiful (7-2 – Liam’s Map – Kenny McPeek / Jose Ortiz – 10: 5-3-0 - $700,865) Since finishing 10th in the Kentucky Oaks, Crazy Beautiful is 2-for-2 with victories in the Summertime Oaks (G2) at Santa Anita and the Delaware Oaks (G3) in the beginning of July. At Delaware Park, she drew off to win by six lengths as the odds-on favorite with Lasix for the first time. Kenny McPeek brought her to Saratoga to prepare to run at the premier summer meeting. Crazy Beautiful will have an opportunity to prove just how good she is against an elite field going the classic distance. Win contender.

2. Will’s Secret (12-1 – Will Take Charge – Dallas Stewart / Jon Court – 9: 3-0-4 - $500,300) Will’s Secret won two stakes in a row at Oaklawn Park in the winter with one of them in the Honeybee (G3) as part of the pace. Since, she was third in a pair of Grade 1s behind Malathaat and most recently she was a non-threatening sixth in the Indiana Oaks (G3). Toss.

3. Clairiere (8-1 – Curlin – Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 7: 2-2-2 - $497,992) Since Clairiere broke her maiden in her first start and since then she has taken on the best fillies while racing in six Grade 1 and 2 stakes. The daughter of Curlin showed up in every start with top three finishes every time except her fourth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She won the Rachel Alexandra (G2) in February and most recently Clairiere was third in the CCA Oaks (G1) at the Spa behind Maracuja and Malathaat after pressing the pace. Another top 3 finish possible.

4. Maracuja (4-1 – Honor Code – Rob Atras / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 6: 2-2-1 - $407,100) Trainer Rob Atras, whose barn is red hot at Saratoga this summer, got the biggest win of his career when Maracuja won the CCA Oaks (G1) at odds of 14-1. Ricardo Santana Jr. gave her a great ride as she sat behind as Clairiere pressed Malathaat on the lead. When the time was right, Maracuja was ready to do battle down the stretch and was able to prevail by a head for a well-deserved victory. In her six starts, she was off the board only once and that was a seventh in the Kentucky Oaks. It is unlikely that she will get an ideal trip again as she did in the CCA Oaks. Win contender.

5. Played Hard (8-1 – Into Mischief – Phil Bauer / Luis Saez– 5: 2-2-1 - $162,138) Trainer Phil Bauer is having a good experience at Saratoga this summer with three winners already. Played Hard won her last two starts while racing on the front end including a maiden victory at Churchill Downs in June and then in a nine-furlong allowance at the Spa by almost five lengths. Even with her excellent current form, this daughter of Into Mischief faces a significant class challenge. Toss.

6. Malathaat (8-5 – Curlin – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 6: 5-1-0 - $1,225,150) Malathaat went into the CCA Oaks (G1) with an unbeaten record that included a neck victory in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Having drawn the inside post-position, she was sent to the lead where she was pressured throughout the nine furlongs. This daughter of Curlin battled down the stretch, but without a chance to relax earlier in the race, she was beaten by a head by Maracuja’s final challenge. No doubt that trainer Todd Pletcher would prefer that Malthaat return to the stalking style that she used to win two Grade 1s. Pletcher has already won the Alabama twice, most recently with Stopchargingmaria in 2014. Win contender.

7. Army Wife (6-1 – Declaration of War – Michael Maker / Tyler Gaffalione – 9: 4-1-2 - $423,972) Army Wife matured to become a multi-graded stakes winner as a 3-year-old while winning 3 of 4 starts in 2021. Starting with an allowance win at Gulfsteam Park in March, Army Wife was then third in a very tough edition of the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct behind future graded stakes winners Search Results and Maracuja after a less than ideal trip. In the Black-Eyed Susan (G2), she rallied to win by more than two lengths. She followed that with an easier victory in the Iowa Oaks (G3). Trainer Mike Maker has given her two breezes at Saratoga as he looks to add another win to his total as the current leading trainer at the meeting. Her pedigree and past races make the 10 furlongs a distance that she can handle. Top choice.

Summary: Several of the 3-year-old fillies are heading into the Alabama after outstanding performances in graded stakes, and that makes them worthy contenders.

After their stretch duel in the CCA Oaks, Malathaat and Maracuja are the two fillies to beat in this race. Malathaat was all out after a strenuous effort on the front end to just miss her sixth consecutive victory. Maracuja had a perfectly timed final move to get the upset win.

I will look beyond those two who might be vulnerable in the Alabama. Army Wife’s trainer, Michael Maker, has been making all the right moves at Saratoga this summer. It appears that Maker has been targeting this race for Army Wife, giving her plenty of time between starts. I will look for her to make the final winning move down the stretch to get her first Grade 1 victory.