Odds and analysis: See the 10 horses in the 2021 Red Smith
The $200,000 Grade 2 Red Smith at Aqueduct on Saturday is the final graded stakes for male turf horses in New York in 2021. The 1 3/8-mile race on the inner-turf course drew a group of 10.
Five of the horses in this field have trainers with prior victories in the Red Smith – Barclay Tagg (1993, 2007), Todd Pletcher (2003, 2018), Christophe Clement (1995, 2010), Mike Maker (2016) and Chad Brown (2009, 2015).
Hall of Fame rider Javier Castellano, who is enjoying a recent upswing in his career, rode four of the horses in the field in their most recent starts and three were winners. Castellano and his new agent, J.P. Campo, opted for the mount on Shamrocket.
Here is a full field analysis for the Red Smith which is carded as race 9 out of 10 with post time set for 3:43 p.m. EST. The odds are provided by the Horse Racing Nation staff.
1. Tide of the Sea (12-1 – English Channel – Mike Maker / Luis Saez – 18: 5-5-1 - $452,184) Tide of the Sea will make his 10th start of his 2021 campaign that began with a January victory in the McKnight (G3) at Gulfstream Park. He faced some very tough fields at times and notched his most recent win in the Japan Turf Cup at Laurel in last month. Most recently, the 5-year-old was fourth in the Point of Entry behind Shamrocket. He prefers to run on or near the lead and would have to deal with Channel Cat’s classier speed. Toss.
2. Value Engineering (10-1 – Lemon Drop Kid – Chad Brown / Dylan Davis – 11: 3-2-6 - $222,060) It is interesting to see a Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables’ runner that has never run worse than third but has yet to try a stakes race. He broke his maiden in his second start and then ran strictly in allowances picking up two more wins including a month ago at Belmont. It is always hard to ignore a Chad Brown runner in a turf stake but this guy seems out classed. Toss.
3. Soldier Rising (7-2 – Frankel – Christophe Clement / Jose Ortiz – 7: 2-4-0 - $435,481) Soldier Rising began his career in France where he broke his maiden and won an allowance. His American career started at Saratoga with a second in the Saratoga Derby (G1) and then moved to Belmont where he was again second this time behind Yibir who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Fairly, Soldier Rising was made the favorite in the Hill Prince (G2) at Belmont but was fifth after trying to rally from the back of the field going seven paths wide. He sure fits well in this Grade 2 but may be a bit camera shy. Win contender.
4. Serve the King (GB) (5-2 – Kingman – Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 10: 4-2-1 - $296,180) Serve the King won the restricted John’s Call at Saratoga which was followed by a second in the Turf Classic Invitational (G1) behind stablemate Rockemperor. Notably, this Chad Brown trainee ran well without Lasix in his two most recent starts. He prefers to run from a stalking position which should be ideal in this field. The likely favorite.
5. Shamrocket (7-2 – Tonalist – Todd Pletcher / Javier Castellano – 20: 4-6-7 - $411,660) Trainer Todd Pletcher will try and win the Red Smith for the third time with Shamrocket who is fresh off his first stakes victory in the Point of Entry at Belmont a month ago. The son of Tonalist was previously stakes-placed multiple times including the Bowling Green (G2) this summer at Saratoga. Expect him to sit a stalking trip and wait for the front runners to back up. Back in form.
6. Corelli (30-1 – Point of Entry – Jonathan Thomas / Manny Franco – 20: 5-3-3 - $283,709) This year Corelli ran only in stakes with two wins to his credit in the Singspeil (G3) at Woodbine in August and the Henry Clark at Pimlico in April. The 6-year-old gelding is a deep closer with plenty of long distance races in his past performances. Most recently, he was fourth in the Kinickerbocker (G3) at Belmont and before that he was an overmatched sixth in the Canadian International (G1). Use underneath.
7. Channel Cat (6-1 – English Channel – Jack Sisterson / John Velazquez – 29: 6-3-5 - $1,416,022) The only win for the 6-year-old Channel Cat in the past two years was in the Man O’War (G1) in May of 2021 at Belmont with a front-end effort at odds of 8-1. That running style makes him dangerous these days because jockeys avoid pace battles especially going long distances. His three starts following that victory were not good enough to get Channel Cat selected to run in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Thus, trainer Jack Sisterson has rerouted him into this end of the year Grade 2. He is, by far, the leading money winner in the field. Top choice.
8. Sanctuary City (15-1 – Temple City – James Ferraro / Ruben Silvera – 15: 4-4-3 - $301,795) Sanctuary City is a 4-year-old New York-bred who last won an open company allowance race in May at Belmont. After that victory he tried a pair of Grade 3 stakes in New York without a top three finish. Sanctuary City also finished third and most recently second in state-bred stakes. He is another off the pace runner. Toss.
9. No Word (8-1 – Silent Name (JPN) – Todd Pletcher / Jose Lezcano – 11: 2-2-3 - $262,013) No Word is the second entry in the Red Smith for Todd Pletcher. He finished fifth in the Knickerbocker (G3) in his most recent start which came after a second in the Bernard Baruch (G2) at Saratoga which was run on a yielding grass course. He has not won a race since an allowance at Belmont in June of 2020. Last year as a 3-year-old, he was third in the Saratoga Derby and second in the Belmont Derby (G1) behind Gufo. No Word had his best results from a stalking position. He will need his best effort from last year to be a threat. Trifecta possible.
10. Price Talk (15-1 – Kitten’s Joy – Tony Dutrow / Eric Cancel – 8: 4-0-2 - $183,104) There is a layoff line in the past performances of Price Talk after all eight of his turf races. The 4-year-old gelding was claimed for $50,000 on August 12 at Saratoga after a victory and since then won an allowance at Belmont at the end of September for his new trainer Tony Dutrow. Price Talk finished third in Gio Ponti at Aqueduct a year ago. He comes into this race with wins in his last two starts, but he has limited stakes experience. Toss.
Summary: The pace in turf races in New York has become hard to predict with any confidence because riders don’t want to use their horses early in the race especially when the distance is long like in the 9 1/2-furlong Red Smith. That makes Channel Cat a win contender because in his last four starts John Velazquez wanted him to be part of the early pace.
Will Channel Cat be able to carry his speed for the entire race as he did in the Man O’ War in May?
The Brown, Clement, and Pletcher runners should take plenty of money and Channel Cat, who is often ignored at the windows, should come with the right kind of odds.