Rebel trend: Speed succeeds a lot in this Kentucky Derby prep
The abundance of speed in Saturday’s Grade 2, $1.25 million Rebel Stakes is in step with a winning pattern that has seen pacesetters and stalkers dominate the Kentucky Derby prep since American Pharoah started the trend in his Triple Crown season of 2015.
Confidence Game’s 18-1 upset last year was a rare outlier. It marked the first time since 2014 that the Rebel winner came from more than 1 3/4 lengths off the lead after the first four furlongs of the 1 1/16-mile race. Since the Derby points format was put into effect in 2013, Will Take Charge that year at 28-1 was the only other exception.
These were the past-performance lines so far for Rebel winners in the Kentucky Derby points era, including the two divisions in the oversubscribed renewal five years ago:
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Confidence Game | 5 - 6 1/2 | 5 - 4 1/2 | 5 - 1 3/4 | 1 | 1 | 18-1 |
| 2022 | Un Ojo | 4 - 3 1/2 | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 | 1 | 75-1 |
| 2021 | Concert Tour | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8-5 |
| 2020 | Nadal | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | *4-5 |
| 2019 | Long Range Toddy | 2 - hd | 5 - 1 3/4 | 5 - 1 3/4 | 4 - 1 1/4 | 1 | 8-1 |
| Omaha Beach | 3 - 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4-1 | |
| 2018 | Magnum Moon | 4 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 1/2 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 3-1 |
| 2017 | Malagacy | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 3-1 |
| 2016 | Cupid | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5-2 |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | *2-5 |
| 2014 | Hoppertunity | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1/2 | 3 - 1 | 4 - nk | 1 | 6-1 |
| 2013 | Will Take Charge | 6 - 4 1/2 | 6 - 4 3/4 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 2 1/2 | 1 | 28-1 |
| * favorite | |||||||
| Source: Equibase |
Speed kills in the Rebel, and it traditionally does not carry a lot of value. Seven of those 10 forwardly placed winners went off at odds no longer than 4-1, although only American Pharoah and Nadal in 2021 were the only favorites.
Hoppertunity won at 6-1 in 2014. That was when Bob Baffert was in the middle of a seven-year run when he trained six Rebel winners, including American Pharoah. Long Range Toddy was 8-1 when he scored, albeit from mid-pack in a tightly bunched field in one of the race’s two divisions in 2019. Two years ago Un Ojo was much more forward than he had been in any previous start on his way to a 75-1 shocker.
It seems every preview of Saturday’s Rebel includes some version of the declaration that there is plenty of early speed. Morning-line favorite Timberlake was on the lead most of the way when he broke his maiden last summer at Ellis Park. He stalked the pace in October when he won the Champagne (G1) in the Aqueduct slop.
Timberlake is one of the eight horses in the Rebel’s 13-horse lineup who has an E or an E/P designation in his Quirin Speed Points, according to Brisnet. According to the Quirin primer, the E says “he must have the lead.” That applies to Northern Flame, Carbone, Time for Truth and Tejon Pass. The E/P stands for early presser, meaning “the horse is comfortable on the lead or within 1-3 lengths of the leader.” Timberlake, Mena, Woodcourt and Next Level fall into that stalker category.
On their own the Quirins do not say what will happen with all that speed once it is put on display. It leaves horseplayers to decide if it will hold up or break down. If it falls apart, the P designation that says a horse “prefers to run 4-7 lengths behind the leader, somewhere near mid-pack” could come into play. Just Steel, who is the second choice on the morning line, has been that sort of horse as are Dimatic, Lagynos and Common Defense.
Magic Grant, whose has been no better than second to last at the earliest call in his first four starts, is the lone S horse in the field. That means sustaining in that he “prefers staying in the back of the pack in favor of a strong late run.” This only pure closer in the Rebel carries the longest morning-line odds of 50-1.
Whether the Rebel continues to reward horses going forward early will be known soon enough just as it was at Fair Grounds last week. That was when it was pointed out that six of the last seven winners of the Risen Star (G2) were pacesetters or stalkers. The lone exception was Angel of Empire in 2023.
And then came Sierra Leone splashing from near the back of the pack to overpower his rivals and win the race. He was a reminder of that old caveat that past performance is not necessarily an indication of future success.
The same thing may be said of trends.