Rebel fair odds: A rare Baffert overlay in Kentucky Derby prep

My favorite utility of the fair-odds concept is it lets me hedge my bets against the actual odds of a race.

Take the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on Sunday at Oaklawn. As the 7-2 second choice, which is what the morning line suggests, I love Litmus Test. At sub 2-1, which is what I think he will be, I am likely to fade him.

But I do see the Los Alamitos Futurity winner as the most likely winner of this race, which would give Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert his sixth win in it in the points era and ninth overall.

Litmus Test was no match for eventual champion 2-year-old Ted Noffey in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but his fourth-place finish earned a nice Ragozin figure. He regressed from that while still winning the Los Al Futurity (G2) and shows up here for his 3-year-old debut with a steady string of works. And he is one of only three entrants with a two-turn stakes win, the uncoupled Mark Casse-trained pair being the other two.

Blackout Time is the 8-5 morning-line favorite, and I'm less sold on taking this horse at a short price than Litmus Test.

Like Litmus Test, Blackout Time finished behind Ted Noffey last year in a Grade 1 race. Unlike Litmus Test, Blackout Time was scratched from the Juvenile and did not return to the worktab until Jan. 23. I really liked his Breeders' Futurity (G1) against Ted Noffey, so I'm keen to see how he develops here and not looking to give up on him going forward, but he will be too short a price now.

If both Litmus Test and Blackout Time take money, then there absolutely will be value in longer-priced horses. The aforementioned Casse pair are the winners of the local preps for this; Strategic Risk won the Smarty Jones before finishing 10th in the Southwest (G3), which Silent Tactic won. If you're willing to forgive Strategic Risk's last then he is likely playable if he drifts from his 12-1 morning line.

Another option, of course, is to believe that Silent Tactic is the real deal. There are worse things than third choices off that kind of effort. He is likely to be the best play if Litmus Test and Blackout Time end up underlays.

Soldier N Diplomat and Rancho Santa Fe are horses worth using in some capacity. The price looks right, and although a win by either would require some sort of jump up, they have shown enough that they belong underneath or even among the logicals.