Kentucky Derby prep: Rebel Stakes 2023 fair odds, analysis

Right church, wrong pew when it came to last week's fair odds of the Risen Star Stakes (G2). I correctly identified the top three choices as underlays but did not assess the rest of the field correctly.

There were 14 in the Risen Star, and Saturday's Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn does not feature quite as robust a gathering. Still, 11 entrants should help create opportunities, especially since I view the morning-line favorite, No. 1 Verifying, as a likely underlay.

Click here for Oaklawn entries and results.

We'll see whether my most likely winner, No. 5 Giant Mischief, actually is not the favorite. I think he will be, but at a 2-1 chance to win the race, I expect there to be value in using him liberally, if not in the win pool, then definitely as a key at fair odds.

Both No. 4 Gun Pilot and No. 6 Reincarnate are wild cards for me, wagering-wise. The former is 8-1 on the morning line, but I expect him to be bet more. The latter is 7-2, but I think he will not take that kind of action.

No. 9 Event Detail has performances on Tapeta at Turfway that make him competitive here, but progeny of City of Light are winless in 25 dirt routes. That's a tough stat against proven winners on the main track, but the talent is there to give this one at least a plug underneath Nos. 4, 5 and 6, considering the morning line is 30-1, and my fair odds are half that.

So why am I against Verifying? I don't love the rail for his running style. Jockey Florent Geroux will have to send, which is fine, but there is other speed in the race, and I think there's opportunity for him to be compromised. Numbers-wise he fits but is by no means a standout. I just can't imagine betting this horse as the favorite.