Rebel Stakes 2021 guide: Odds, picks and analysis

Oaklawn Park is the site of a Bob Baffert vs. Brad Cox battle with a likely Kentucky Derby starting spot on the line.

Cox’s Caddo River (9-5) and Baffert’s Concert Tour (2-1) co-headline Saturday’s $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2). Post time from Oaklawn is scheduled for 6:16 p.m. EST, with TVG to bring televised coverage of the 1 1/16 mile race.

The Rebel offers Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 50-20-10-5 basis. Fifty points has been enough to crack the starting gates each spring since Churchill Downs instituted the points system in 2013.

Jockey Florent Geroux will ride Caddo River, a Hard Spun colt who took Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones Stakes back in January. A Caddo River win would give Cox, who also trains Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner Mandaloun and reigning 2-year-old champion Essential Quality, a trio of 3-year-olds with at least 40 Derby points.

Concert Tour enters with a 2-for-2 record, including a San Vicente Stakes (G2) score last month at Santa Anita. Baffert has trained seven Rebel winners and already has one runner, San Felipe Stakes (G2) victor Life Is Good, that has sewn up a Kentucky Derby spot.

Beyond Caddo River and Concert Tour are Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) hero Keepmeinmind (4-1), Steve Asmussen-trained stakes winner Super Stock (6-1) and Get Her Number (8-1), who took the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) in his last start.

Here is a look at the 2021 Rebel Stakes field (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Caddo River (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux), 9-5

2. Big Lake (Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr.), 12-1

3. Hozier (Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia), 12-1

4. Ger Her Number (Peter Miller, Javier Castellano), 8-1

5. Twilight Blue (Joe Sharp, Brian Hernandez Jr.), 15-1

6. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro, David Cohen), 4-1

7. Concert Tour (Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario), 2-1

8. Super Stock (Steve Asmussen, Joe Talamo), 6-1

TimeformUS’ pace projections show Caddo River assuming the lead from the rail under Geroux, with Concert Tour tracking in second. Keepmeinmind is the deepest closer in the field.

For more information on each of the Rebel Stakes eight runners, check out HRN’s free past performances page.

Rebel Stakes links

Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis go head-to-head handicapping the Rebel Stakes, analyzing all eight runners. Neither handicapper picked the morning-line favorite.

Reinier Macatangay also handicaps the Rebel Stakes. He finds Caddo River and Concert Tour hard to separate and says the race may not generate much value for bettors.

This week on HorseCenter, hosts Matt Shifman and Brian Zipse make their Rebel Stakes picks. The two hosts also look at the 3-year-old filly picture and rank their top 10 Kentucky Oaks prospects.

Caddo River and Concert Tour are among Keeler Johnson’s watch list horses in action this week. Johnson also has his eyes on another Kentucky Derby hopeful in Prevalence, who won an allowance optional claiming event Thursday at Gulfstream Park.

Speaking to Oaklawn’s communication team, trainer Bob Baffert said, “I usually try to bring my best horses” to the track’s Kentucky Derby preps. His Rebel winners like American Pharoah, Hoppertunity and Lookin at Lucky back up that statement.

The Rebel field’s only Grade 1 winner is Get Her Number, who makes his first start Saturday in more than five months. Trainer Peter Miller talked to Oaklawn’s communications team about his decision to ship the colt from California to Arkansas.

2020 Kentucky Oaks heroine Shedaresthedevil and Whitmore, reigning Champion Male Sprinter, both make their 2021 debuts Saturday on the Rebel Stakes undercard. Macatangay is playing against both those notable runners.

Other Saturday stakes

Courtesy of the NTRA, here is a look at some of the other big races taking place Saturday across the country.

3:03 p.m. EST – $350,000 Azeri Stakes (G2), Oaklawn Park, FS2 and TVG

Shedaresthedevil, winner of 2020 Kentucky Oaks, will make her seasonal debut in the Azeri Stakes, the final major local prep for the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap on April 17. Trained by Brad Cox, Shedaresthedevil will be making her first start since finishing third in her first race against older horses, the Spinster Stakes (G1) on Oct. 4 at Keeneland. The daughter of Daredevil had won her previous three starts, including the Kentucky Oaks last Sept. 4, where she defeated eventual divisional champion Swiss Skydiver.

5:45 p.m. EST – $200,000 Hot Springs Stakes, Oaklawn Park, FS2 and TVG

Whitmore, the champion male sprinter of 2020, will be making his seasonal debut in the Hot Springs Stakes where he will attempt to win the six-furlong test for a fifth consecutive year. The 8-year-old gelding used his famed kick to capture the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Keeneland last November en route to earning the Eclipse Award for divisional honors. Trained by Ron Moquett, Whitmore first won the Hot Springs Stakes in 2017.

6:46 p.m. EST – $100,000 San Simeon Stakes (G3), Santa Anita, TVG

Bob and Jackie would appear to rate a big chance cutting back in distance for Richard Baltas as he faces sharp recent winner Gregorian Chant, defending champ Cistron and Jolie Olimpica, who will be facing males for the first time in North America in Saturday’s San Simeon Stakes. Bob and Jackie has won four out of his 10 lifetime starts and will be sprinting for the first time since his debut at age 2 in 2018 when he was a close second going 6½ furlongs on Santa Anita’s hillside turf course.

7:20 p.m. EST – $300,000 Beholder Mile (G1), Santa Anita, TVG

Swiss Skydiver, the reigning champion 3-year-old filly, is poised to make her 2021 debut as she heads a field of eight older fillies and mares in Saturday’s Beholder Mile. Trained by Kenny McPeek and owned by Peter Callahan, Swiss Skydiver, who defeated males in the Preakness Stakes, has been idle since running seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Keeneland last November. The daughter of Daredevil was impressive in her lone Santa Anita appearance, going gate to wire while taking the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) by four lengths last June 6.

Rebel Stakes preview

From Oaklawn Communications:

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has dominated Oaklawn’s four-race Kentucky Derby prep series the last decade. But it is Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox who has owned 2021.

Cox sent out Caddo River to a record-setting 10¼-length victory in the Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 22 for breeder/owner John Ed Anthony of Hot Springs, Ark. Cox then saddled champion 2-year-old male Essential Quality to win the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on Feb. 27 and remain unbeaten in four career starts.

It is now Caddo River’s turn, again, this time in the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2), which highlights Saturday’s blockbuster program at Oaklawn. Probable post time for the Rebel, the 11th of 12 races, is 5:16 p.m. CST. Racing begins at noon. The infield will be open, weather permitting.

The Rebel is Oaklawn's third of four Kentucky Derby points races. The eight entrants from the rail out: Caddo River, Florent Geroux to ride, 122 pounds, 9-5 on the morning line; Big Lake, Ricardo Santana Jr., 117, 12-1; Hozier, Martin Garcia, 117, 12-1; Get Her Number, Javier Castellano, 119, 8-1; Twilight Blue, Brian Hernandez Jr., 119, 15-1; Keepmeinmind, David Cohen, 119, 4-1; Concert Tour, Joel Rosario, 117, 2-1; and Super Stock, Joe Talamo, 117, 6-1.

The Rebel will offer 85 points (50-20-10-5, respectively) to the top four finishers toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby, which is limited to 20 horses.

Caddo River earned 10 points for his front-running victory in the one-mile Smarty Jones, which marked the two-turn debut for the long-striding son of 2007 Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun. Caddo River closed his 2-year-old campaign with a front-running 9½-length maiden victory going a mile Nov. 15 at Churchill Downs.

Baffert finished second to Cox in the Southwest with Spielberg, but returns for the Rebel, a race the trainer has won a record seven times, with a more highly regarded prospect in unbeaten Concert Tour (2-for-2). Concert Tour, who will be making his two-turn debut, broke his maiden Jan. 15 at Santa Anita and won the San Vicente Stakes (G2) on Feb. 6 at Santa Anita.

“Concert Tour, I just think that he’s done everything right and he’s worked well coming into this race,” said Baffert, who, since 2010, has 15 victories in Kentucky Derby prep races at Oaklawn. “I think Caddo River is definitely the horse to beat. Cox is tough right now. He’s got some nice horses and does a great job. And Keepmeinmind ran a great race in the Breeders’ Cup. He’s a good horse. You want to move forward. You just want to make a forward progression. They have to run first or second, to me. They’ve got to run first or second.”

Caddo River had been based at Oaklawn before Cox moved the colt to Fair Grounds on Feb. 11, shortly before severe winter weather shuttered Oaklawn for almost two weeks. Remaining on a regular work schedule, Caddo River breezed four times at Fair Grounds before returning to Hot Springs on Wednesday. Caddo River was able to clear his rivals from the extreme outside (post 7) going into the first turn of the Smarty Jones and now gets the rail for the Rebel.

“We’ll see how it goes,” Cox said. “He’s doing great. We couldn’t ask him to be training any better. He hasn’t missed anything. He’s on a great schedule and training like the part.”

Caddo River’s resume has been flattered in recent weeks. Smarty Jones runner-up Cowan finished a troubled second in the Saudi Derby on Feb. 20 in Saudi Arabia and Greatest Honour, who twice finished behind Caddo River in maiden races last fall in New York, won the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) on Jan. 30 and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) on Feb. 27. Both races were at Gulfstream Park.

“It’s nice to see that horse has been kind of dominating the south Florida circuit,” Cox said. “He’s run twice and obviously he’s moved forward. I think we’ve moved forward as well. It gives us confidence, for sure.”

Baffert won the 2020 Rebel with Nadal, who also entered 2-for-2 after breaking his maiden sprinting in January at Santa Anita and winning the San Vicente. Concert Tour stalked the pace in the San Vicente and Baffert called Saturday’s post position “fine.”

“My horses always seem to draw the rail,” Baffert said. “I draw it so much. It’s one of those things, they still have to get away cleanly. Spielberg had a nice outside post and it ended up a horrendous break. No fault of anybody’s, but he just moved at the last minute. They still have to get away from there and break cleanly and get into the race. You just want to get them into a nice rhythm where they can breathe easily and not get stopped.”

Late-running Keepmeinmind will be making his first start since breaking his maiden with a last-to-first victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) on Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs. Prior to the Kentucky Jockey Club, Keepmeinmind finished third to Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 6 at Keeneland and second to Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) on Oct. 3 at Keeneland.

Keepmeinmind was to make his 3-year-old debut in the Southwest, which was originally scheduled to be run Feb. 15 before the race was postponed twice because of severe winter weather. Robertino Diodoro, Oaklawn’s leading trainer last year, opted to pass the delayed Southwest and point for the Rebel after Keepmeinmind’s training schedule was interrupted by snow and bitter cold. Keepmeinmind has been based at Oaklawn since late December.

“I like the draw, the post, I like everything about it, to be honest,” Diodoro said. “No complaints. My famous saying is the race is run on dirt, not paper, but on paper it looks like more pace than I predicted to be in there. I like what the race looks like.”

Diodoro said Keepmeinmind will carry the silks of famed Spendthrift Farm for the first time in the Rebel after it recently purchased an interest in the son of Laoban.

Grade 1 winner Get Her Number will be making his 3-year-old debut for Southern California-based trainer Peter Miller. Super Stock ran third in the Breeders’ Futurity for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.

The Rebel is the final major local prep for the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 10. Nadal won the second division of last year’s Arkansas Derby. 

Baffert also won the Rebel in 2010 (Lookin At Lucky), 2011 (The Factor), 2012 (Secret Circle), 2014 (Hoppertunity), 2015 (American Pharoah) and 2016 (Cupid).