Rebel 2022: See how pacesetters, stalkers have recent success

American Pharoah splashed through the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on his way to winning the Triple Crown. That must make what is now a $1 million race a real barometer to gauge success come spring in the Kentucky Derby, right? 

Yes and no. Early speed has been rewarded lately in both races, but the Oaklawn prep is not necessarily a glide path to Louisville riches.

In truth, only three horses who ran in the race that began in 1961 as the Rebel Handicap went on to win the roses at Churchill Downs. Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Smarty Jones in 2004 and Pharoah all pulled off the Rebel-Kentucky Derby double.

Since 1980, according to the Churchill Downs media guide, the Rebel has sent 58 horses to Louisville with only eight finishing in the money in the Derby. Last year Super Stock was fourth at Oaklawn and 16th at Churchill; Keepmeinmind was sixth at Oaklawn and seventh in Kentucky.

This list of Rebel horses who graduated to the Kentucky Derby includes their Quirin Speed Points with E and E/P for forward-going horses and P and S for those who were closers:

Even though he remains under a ban from the Derby, trainer Bob Baffert is still welcome in the Rebel, which he has won a record eight times in the last 13 runnings (there were two divisions in 2019), including last year with Concert Tour. This year undefeated Newgrange ships in from Baffert’s Southern California stable as the likely favorite Saturday, especially since he won at Oaklawn last month in the Southwest Stakes (G3).

One thing Sunny’s Halo, Smarty Jones and American Pharoah had in common was their running style. In the 1983 Derby, Sunny Halo never was more than a half-length behind, and he took the lead for good on the backstretch. Smarty Jones and American Pharoah brought stalking-style, Quirin Speed Points of E/P 7 to Louisville, and they lived up to them with their forward placement on the way to the winner’s circle.

Newgrange also brings an E/P 7 designation to Oaklawn for this race, which has been run at 1 1/16 miles since the handicap conditions were dropped in 1984. If he were to end up later with another trainer and, therefore, eligible to use a 100-40-20-10 prep next month to get to Louisville, his style would fit the pattern of Derby-winning pacesetters and stalkers during the nine years of the current qualifying-points system. 

As for the Oaklawn race itself, here were the running lines for each Rebel winner since 2000, showing their lengths behind at each call when they trailed:

Whether it is Baffert’s success with early speed or the fact the points system rewards that style, forward placing has been a common denominator among recent winners of the Rebel. Seven of the last nine either led the whole way or were never more than 1 1/2 lengths behind at any call. Even the two exceptions, Omaha Beach and Long Range Toddy in both divisions of the oversubscribed 2019 renewal, were never more than two lengths adrift. 

Contrast that recent pattern to the 11 Rebels from 2003 to 2013. The Factor in 2011 was the only gate-to-wire winner, and seven others made up at least 4 3/4 lengths.

Saturday’s Rebel field includes seven entrants – Kavod, Newgrange, Cairama, Stellar Tap, Ben Diesel, Chasing Time and Dash Attack – prone to going forward early. The other four – Un Ojo, Texas Red Hot, Barber Road and Ethereal Road – have come from off the pace in most of their races.

There is one other variable to throw in the mix. According to the National Weather Service, there is a 30 percent chance of rain Saturday with a high of 43 degrees and a homestretch tailwind of only 5 mph.