Read how experts handicap the new turf chute at Santa Anita

Arcadia, Calif.

Instead of running down the hill, they come out of the backstretch chute these days to race 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf at Santa Anita.

It may not be as spectacularly picturesque, but the grass extension christened Dec. 26 presents its own series of idiosyncrasies. Instead of bearing right midway down the slope, there is a flat, dogleg left right out of the gate, just as the horses come into the general view of the still-empty grandstand.

Of course, there is still a dirt crossing, too.

Enough about the aesthetics. Even though the extension still does not show up on Google Maps, it does have trends from 60 races.

* There have been 20 winners (33.3 percent) that led a half-mile into their races, including 15 (25.0 percent) that were first at every call, according to Equibase charts. There were 35 leaders (58.3 percent) at the top of the stretch that went on to win.

* Only nine winners (15.0 percent) were fourth or worse turning for home.

* Favorites have won 22 times (36.7 percent). Fourteen long-shot winners (23.3 percent) carried post-time odds of at least 10-1, although there have been none in the last 11 out of the turf chute.

* The rail starter has finished first only six times (10.0 percent), but post 2 has produced 12 winners (20.0 percent).

* Flavien Prat has ridden 12 victories from the new chute, all since Feb. 5, including 7 of 11 going into this week. Umberto Rispoli is next with 10, with all but two coming in January. Juan Hernández has 8.

What handicapping peculiarities have come with the chute that starts near the fork in the road between Huntington Drive and Colorado Place? HRN posed that open-ended question last week at Santa Anita to four experts whose answers came from first-hand knowledge charting the first 2 1/2 months of races on the new trail.

Andy Harrington, private clocker, NationalTurf.com (@clockerandy): “At the six furlongs and especially the 6 1/2 in the new configuration, you get a unique blend of horses. You get five- or 5 1/2-furlong grass and dirt horses trying to stretch out, and you get some milers and mile-and-a-sixteenth horses. A lot of turf horses are cutting back.”

Peter Eurton, two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer (@EurtonRacing): “It’s very similar to how it was starting at 5 1/2 furlongs. It’s fast, and I think you have to have tactical speed. You have to get a good jump whether it’s six furlongs or 6 1/2. I definitely like it better than the 5 1/2, because your horse can be more precocious and be more involved in the race early.”

Harrington: “There’s that bend to the left, and everybody gets a little bit of position out of the gate. You don’t want to get cut off when you break from the rail or the ‘2’ hole. You don’t want to get the field to come over on you. If you’re way out in the ‘9’ or ‘10’ hole, you don’t want to be out in the ‘9’ path going down the back side.”

Jon White, morning-line oddsmaker, Santa Anita and Del Mar (@PostTimeJon): “There was the thought by some that perhaps the outside posts might not be all that good when going 6 1/2 furlongs out of the new turf chute. I have not noticed nor have I heard any chatter that there is any pronounced advantage or disadvantage regarding post positions in any races starting in the new turf chute.”

Harrington: “After the initial 100 yards everybody kind of treads water for the first quarter-mile. It is sort of what happened with the downhill races, where you would break, and then you would twist around. You couldn’t really do a lot of maneuvering except to get position early. After that they run like most turf races here. It’s position, position, position.”

White: “Through the years the inside post down the hill, for the most part, has not seemed to be the place to be. That really is not all that surprising. Most likely it is mainly because, in races coming down the hill, horses are asked to make a right-hand turn early.”

Eurton: “I think it’s a lot different from going down the hill. The 6 1/2 down the hill has a big difference from the new 6 1/2 on the flat. The difference I see going 6 1/2 out of the chute is they won’t quite let their horses all out early in the race because of the dirt. Maybe a couple steps. Going five furlongs or 5 1/2, you can let them run as much as you want early on. It’s also just very difficult to close at 5 1/2 vs. the new six or 6 1/2.”

Harrington: “You need to pretty much be on the rail at some point in the race, hopefully work a trip out in the lane and split horses. It’s really difficult to sit and do the ‘4’ or ‘5’ path. In fact, it’s impossible. You’ve got to work out a ground-saving trip at some point in the race. The really good turf riders know you can’t go three-, four- or five-wide the whole way and expect to win. This is no surprise that Flavien Prat is by far the best grass horse rider out there. It’s not a coincidence guys like Prat and Umberto Rispoli, who have been doing great on the grass forever, still do great in these elongated sprints. Without using any names there are some jocks that just don’t get it, whether it’s two turns on the grass or these sprints on the grass. I don’t think they realize how tight that turn is and how much weight it takes out a horse’s legs if you’re not tucked in and how much the turf course is a little more banked than the dirt course.”

Eurton: “At the longer (6 1/2-furlong) distance, not a lot of guys are going to want to send as much, because they know they are going to have to come across the dirt. So they come out of there in kind of a checking mode. They let their horses run, but not like they would going 5 1/2 when they’re already on the grass. That’s the biggest thing.”

Gary Stevens, Hall of Fame jockey, FS1 analyst, agent for Drayden Van Dyke (@GStevens_jockey): “You need a horse that’s handy and athletic but can finish. I think it plays very much the same as off the hill. You better have one that’s fast, but you better have one that can stay a mile.”

White: “In my opinion, from what I have seen, there have not been any concrete trends so far regarding the races out of the new turf chute. This is in contrast to the sprints down the hill, in which horses coming off a start in a longer race often did well.”

Harrington: “Initially the races seemed to be playing up close, and you needed to be generally inside. Since then it’s played really fair. The 6 1/2 is a little bit different than the six. It plays longer than 6 1/2 to me, just because there’s a little more turning and twisting early. I’ve seen some routers who didn’t have a legitimate run in the lane.”

Stevens: “You better handicap it, the 6 1/2-furlong races especially, exactly like you handicap the downhill turf course. Milers are exceptionally important. Milers shortening up to the 6 1/2, I think it plays more like a route race, an extended mile race, than it does a sprint race.”

White: “If someone does believe there is some sort of trend (toward post-position bias), I would caution them that the sample size still is not all that large yet to be drawing any definite conclusions. However, I would say that because the turf chute is new, it behooves horseplayers to continue monitoring the situation going forward to see if any trend or trends do evolve.”