Raven Run guide: Odds, picks, analysis and PPs at Keeneland
Saturday's feature at Keeneland is the Grade 2, $350,000 Raven Run stakes for 3-year-old fillies, headlined by 2-1 morning line favorite Alva Starr. She has won three of five lifetime and comes in off a dominant 8 3/4-length win in the Prioress at Saratoga for trainer Brett Brinkman.
We've got you covered with Super Screener picks (including a surprising top pick) and analysis below.
But before we get into the picks, let's take a look at the best speed figures of 2023 for this group. If you want to check out HRN's Free Past Performances page, you can download free PPs courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
Raven Run - best speed figures this year
| Beyer | TimeformUS | HRN | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lily Poo | 81 | 107 | 88 |
| 2 | Simply Stated | 88 | 102 | 102 |
| 3 | Nom de Plume | 73 | 102 | 95 |
| 4 | Vahva | 91 | 115 | 100 |
| 5 | Apple Picker | 77 | 105 | 101 |
| 6 | Dazzling Blue | 94 | 114 | 94 |
| 7 | Alva Starr | 98 | 121 | 106 |
| 8 | Lady Raider | 88 | 109 | 100 |
| 9 | Ancient Peace | 82 | 111 | 91 |
Looking at the pace
The TimeformUS pace projector indicates the Raven Run could have a fast pace, led by no. 7 Alva Starr, the favorite, out in front. No. 2 Simply Stated has raced on the lead or close to the lead in her last four starts, so jockey Luis Saez may elect to challenge Alva Starr on the front end.
The HRN Pace Report gives the Raven Run a pace number of 53, which indicates some possibility of a fast pace, but not necessarily.
Super Screener picks
The Super Screener notes that favored Alva Starr is definitely the horse to beat on paper, but also gives a shot to no. 9 Ancient Peace on the outside, noting that if this filly can rate, she should be in a good spot and have the stamina to outclose the competition at a nice price.
There's also a great super Screener deal where you can get the Breeders' Cup Super Screener right now and get an early start on handicapping the championship races.
In addition, handicapper Reinier Macatangay makes the case for another outsider in his Saturday plays.
Here is the complete Raven Run field below: