Raven Run fair odds: How low will Emery go?

If you were allowed to bet horses to lose, then V V's Dream would be my play-against in the Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland.

It brings me no joy to write this, as she was my early Kentucky Oaks (G1) horse this winter. The reality is she is the 8-1 fourth choice on Nick Tammaro's morning line, but she is my eighth choice via fair odds.

Since we can't bet against her, what can we do with that information? If she does take any kind of money, then that could potentially keep Emery in my 6-5 value range.

Emery is 7-5 on the morning line, but I think she will be less than that as she was in her first five career starts, four of them victories. She was not favored in the Test Stakes (G1), but there's certainly no shame in finishing second to next-out winner Ways And Means on the Grade 1 stage at Saratoga.

She is the class of this group, but I do not think she wins this race more than half the time. In other words, she would not be worth a bet at odds on.

Miuccia drew well to track Emery early. She got shuffled back wide last out, but I expect a better voyage here. My Mane Squeeze has similar numbers to Miuccia but is giving two pounds. Although I see her as the more likely winner between my second and third alternatives, if she ends up being the one who's bet other than Emery then maybe the value is on Miuccia.

Depending on what you think of the other races, Emery isn't a bad single off her 7-5 morning line. But if you're leaning on short prices elsewhere, then I think using just Miuccia and My Mane Squeeze here to upset the favorite could be prudent.