Ranked: The best Kentucky Derby Preps

It was a fun change of pace to see the Travers (G1) and Haskell (G1) used as Kentucky Derby preps in 2020, but most of the racing world is pleased to be back on track with the normal prep schedule in 2021.

Even with the change of schedule last year, one constant remained as the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Florida Derby (G1) once again were the most productive prep races. Authentic finished second behind fourth-place Kentucky Derby finisher Honor A. P. in the Santa Anita Derby before winning the Haskell and the Kentucky Derby. Tiz the Law won the Florida Derby prior to winning the Belmont and Travers Stakes and running second in the Kentucky Derby.

Four of the last 13 Derby winners have exited the Florida Derby. Five of the last 13 have crossed the finish line first if one takes Maximum Security into account. 

Another four of the past 13 Derby winners have exited the Santa Anita Derby.

Counting Country House's win via disqualification, three of the last 13 winners raced in the Arkansas Derby before winning in Kentucky.

Country House also ran in the Louisiana Derby (G2) prior to the Kentucky Derby, making him the only horse in the last 13 years to run in Fair Grounds' marquee race prior to a Kentucky Derby win.

History has shown that the Blue Grass (G2) and Wood Memorial (G2) have been surprisingly abysmal over the same timespan. Even the Sunland Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), formerly the Spiral, have produced a Derby winner more recently than Keeneland or Aqueduct's final 3-year-old prep.

History is not on the side of Essential Quality, but the 2021 Blue Grass seems much stronger than recent editions. The 2021 Wood Memorial was even weaker than normal, and it would be shocking to see that trend turn around this year.

Below we rank the final preps on the 2021 Kentucky Derby trail. Both of Keeneland's preps are listed as they came only one week apart.

1. Blue Grass Stakes (G2): Though the Blue Grass has yielded little success in recent years, the 2021 edition was the deepest of any prep race. The winner, Essential Quality, will be favored on the First Saturday of May. Highly Motivated might not prove to adore a mile and a quarter, but he is one of the most talented runners in this crop. Rombauer won the El Camino Real Derby prior to running a distant third in the Blue Grass. Hidden Stash just missed taking the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) before running fourth. The fifth through seventh finishers all were prior stakes winners. The final time of the Blue Grass was respectable and they came home very fast, making this the top prep of 2021.

2. Santa Anita Derby (G1) The Santa Anita Derby might not have been as deep as other preps, but it could once again yield the Derby winner. Rock Your World enters Kentucky undefeated and his win at "The Great Race Place" netted the only triple-digit Beyer among final preps. Runner-up Medina Spirit defeated subsequent Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie and ran second in a pair of swiftly run races won by stablemate Life Is Good. Dream Shake, the distant third-place finisher, will have a chance to flatter Rock Your World when he runs in the Pat Day Mile.

3. Louisiana Derby (G2): Fair Grounds' final Derby prep is likely to produce four Kentucky Derby starters, yet analysts have been split on the overall strength of the race. Risen Star winner Mandaloun did not fire in this spot, which muddied the Louisiana form. Fourth-place finisher Proxy returned to run a dud in the Lexington, but it is hard to judge that sloppy track effort. Hot Rod Charlie looked good winning, but as mentioned above he could not get by Medina Spirit previously and also was defeated by Essential Quality. Midnight Bourbon is an honest runner but seems a just step below the best in the class. O Besos closed nicely in the Louisiana Derby and looks like a live long shot in the Kentucky Derby. The 99 Beyer Speed Figure earned by Hot Rod Charlie puts this race in the conversation as a potentially productive prep, but there are plenty of question marks that must be considered.

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4. Florida Derby (G1): Like the Santa Anita Derby, there was not much depth in the 2021 Florida Derby, but it did feature a few runners who could be very good. Known Agenda won smartly and figures to have a strong chance in Kentucky. Soup and Sandwich might have distance questions, but he appears to have plenty of talent. Third-place Greatest Honour was among the early Derby favorites prior to disappointing in this race. Impressive maiden winner Collaborate was biting off too much in this spot though he can still prove to be a good one. This year's Florida Derby was not as strong as recent years, but it has enough juice to produce at least one solid contender.

5. Arkansas Derby (G1): This was supposed to be a walk in the park for Concert Tour, but like Caddo River, he proved he needs the lead to be at his best. Super Stock received a perfect setup in this race and did not have the form worthy of a Derby start heading into the Arkansas Derby. He will be the only starter moving on to Kentucky, making Oaklawn's prep much less productive than usual in 2021.

6. Tampa Bay Derby (G2): The speed figures came back light in this race, but it is important to note Helium could have run much faster if he was not wide every step of the way. While the undefeated colt is an interesting Derby long shot, it would be surprising to see him emerge victorious in Kentucky. Runner-up Hidden Stash returned to run a distant fourth in the Blue Grass and will be among the outsiders in the Derby. Fourth-place finisher Unbridled Honor returned to run second in the Lexington.

7. Lexington Stakes (G3): Like Super Stock, King Fury did not have stellar form entering this race and he was gifted with a fast pace. He received a strong 95 Beyer, but it came over a sloppy track and it is hard to believe in that he will be able to reproduce that effort in the Derby. This race featured a slew of recent maiden winners who were not ready for the step up in class and a vulnerable favorite in Proxy, who was a cut below the best in Louisiana. It would be surprising to see King Fury take another step forward.

8. Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3): It is always hard to analyze this race on the synthetic, and this year's edition seems too slow to be a productive one. Winner Like the King has no proven dirt form. The runner-up Sainthood suffered a troubled trip and owns a win over dirt. He is more likely to pull off a surprise among the two runners, but a minor award seems to be his ceiling. 

9. Wood Memorial (G2): It is usually not a good sign when a 72-1 shot wins a Derby prep, and it is even more discouraging when the race is run in 1:54.49. Dynamic One was likely ever so slightly best over his long-shot winning stablemate Bourbonic, who could not even win at Parx in his previous start. This dreadfully slow prep is the least likely to produce the 2021 Kentucky Derby winner.