Queen’s Plate 2018: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

The Queen’s Plate, the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, was first run in 1860, making it the oldest run stakes race in North America. The $1 million feature renews Saturday at 1 1/4 miles at Woodbine, where 3-year-olds foaled in Canada are eligible to run on the Tapeta surface.

Although the distances of the three Canadian Triple Crown races are the same as in America, three different surfaces are used. The second jewel of the series, the Prince of Wales Stakes, is run on the dirt at Fort Erie Racetrack. The third leg is Breeders’ Stakes, is run on the turf back at Woodbine. The last horse to win the Canadian Triple Crown was Wando in 2003.

The Queen’s Plate has been won by fillies 36 times, including last year with Holy Helena; Lexie Lou in 2014; and in 2011 by Inglorious. This year, the field contains the fillies Dixie Moon and Wonder Gadot.

A double post-position draw was held Wednesday, meaning first the order was chosen, and then the connections picked their spot in the gate. The last four posts selected in order were: 2, 1, 15 and 16. To accommodate the field of 16, an auxiliary gate will be used for the two horses breaking from posts 1 and 2.

Here is the full field analysis for the Queen’s Plate with the official morning line:

Boyhood Dream [ML 30-1 - Dialed In – M. Maker/A. Garcia – 8: 1-1-1 - $33,565] Trainer Mike Maker won the Queen’s Plate in 2016 with Sir Dudley Digges for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey. Boyhood Dream is one of three starters in this year’s race for Maker. This one needed six tries to get his initial win, and that happened in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland back in April. Since then, two tries at Woodbine have produced an allowance placing and a fourth in the Plate Trial. Only win is a maiden claimer.

Cooler Mike [ML 30-1 - Giant Gizmo – N. Nosowenko/J. Campbell – 8: 3-2-0 - $197,290] This gelded son of Giant Gizmo broke his maiden in restricted company first time out in an allowance race by four lengths. He followed that with a second in a stakes race and then another allowance win. When stretching out to a distance of ground, he finished fourth three times in a row. This year he has a second and then an allowance victory at Woodbine. Rider Jesse Campbell won the Queen’s Plate in 2013. Ten-furlong distance will be a big challenge.

Inge [ML 30-1 - Victor’s Cry – N. McKnight/S. Sutherland – 11: 3-1-2 - $157,270] This gelding was claimed for $40,000 out of a winning effort in his juvenile finale at Woodbine. This year, trainer Norm McKnight took Inge to Oaklawn Park, where he started four times without a win. Back at Woodbine, he was placed first in the Wando Stakes and then faded to fifth in the Marine. The distance appears to be too much for this one. Will help set the pace.

Strike Me Down [ML 10-1 – Tapit – G. Motion/J. Ortiz – 4: 1-2-1 - $109,100] From the stable of the five-time Queen’s Plate winners Sam-Son Farm, this son of Tapit took to the Tapeta with a 2018 maiden-breaking effort at Woodbine. He raced twice on the grass with a juvenile debut at Saratoga and then a second in a stakes race behind Dixie Moon. Most recently he ran second in a Monmouth Park turf stake for Graham Motion. He should be able to handle the distance, but the step up in class is another question. Lightly raced colt lands Jose Ortiz.

Silent Poet [ML 30-1 – Silent Name - N. Gonzalez/G. Boulanger – 3: 2-1-0 - $71,420] This lightly raced colt has Queen’s Plate-winning connections. Trainer Nick Gonzalez has two victories, while owner Stronach Stables has taken home the Plate four times. Silent Poet had one start as a juvenile, finishing second on the Woodbine grass. This year, he won his debut while sprinting five furlongs on the main track at Woodbine, then backed that up with turf spirt victory in an allowance. The colt has some talent but has class and distance questions to answer here. A big class and distance test.

 Real Dude [ML 50-1 – Ghostzapper – S. Attard/D. Moran – 2: M-0-0-1 - $8,830] Thoroughbred racing industry leader and Canadian Frank Stronach sends this homebred son of Ghostzapper, and the 2008 Sovereign Award winning 3-year-old filly Ginger Brew, into the Queen’s Plate as a maiden. He was third in a Woodbine maiden special weight on June 9. Regally home-bred maiden.

Dixie Moon [ML 4-1 - Curlin – C. Phillips/E. da Silva – 8: 4-2-0 - $654,800] This filly will take on the boys in the Queen’s Plate after a very successful 2-year-old campaign that included a sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Dixie Moon finished third in the balloting for the division’s top honor, a 2017 Sovereign Award. She has shown an affinity for the Tapeta at Woodbine with three wins and a second there in just four starts, the most recent being the win over Wonder Gadot in the Woodbine Oaks. Jockey Eurico Rosa da Silva won the Queen's Plate in 2009 and 2010. This filly loves the Tapeta.

Alternative Route [ML 20-1 - Tiznow - A. Stall, Jr./M. Murrill – 5: 2-0-0 - $73,560] Al Stall ships Alternative Route north of the border for the first time from Kentucky. He has been racing exclusively against open company, prepping for the Queen’s Plate with a victory in a March stakes race at Turfway Park on the synthetic racing surface there. It seems that Stall had his mind set on the Queen's Plate for this son of Tiznow. That was followed by a fourth in the Arlington Classic (G3) on a wet and yielding Chicago turf course. All five of his starts have been around two turns, and he prefers to stalk the early pace. Trainer Al Stall targeted this race.

Say the Word [ML 20-1 – More Than Ready – G. Motion/R. Hernandez – 7: 1-1-1 - $58,330] This More Than Ready gelding broke his maiden after six tries on the turf when he won at Keeneland in April. Say the Word wears the silks of Sam-Son Farm, who most recently won the Queen's Plate in 2009 with Eye of the Leopard. This Motion trainee went to Woodbine for his first run on the Tapeta that produced a third in an allowance. I never count out Motion at big odds. Will need to improve a lot.

Telekinesis [ML 5-2 – Ghostzapper – M. Casse/P. Husbands – 4: 2-1-1 - $144,330] Trainer Mark Casse, who won the Queen's Plate in 2014 with the filly Lexie Lou, has three runners in this year’s field. Casse is the Sovereign Award winner for Top Trainer in Canada in 2018. Telekinesis has been well thought of since he was purchased for $470,000 as a weanling in the 2015 Keeneland November sale by Stonestreet Stables. He did not race until this year when he won at first asking at the Fair Grounds. Next up going two turns, he was third in an allowance at the New Oleans track. In April, the Casse runner was caught at the wire by My Boy Jack in the Lexington (G3). He put it all together with a gate to wire victory in the Plate Trial. This one is likely to attract a lot of attention at the betting windows. He’ll be racing close to or on the lead with a chance for a big paycheck here. Can he get the distance while pushing the pace?

Wonder Gadot [ML 3-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – M. Casse/J. Velazquez – 11: 3-4-3 - $800,140] When you look at the past performances of Wonder Gadot, you see races against the best 3-year-old fillies in America. Eleven starts with 10 finishes in the money gives this Casse trainer a big class edge over most of this field. In the Kentucky Oaks, she pushed the superstar Monomoy Girl all the way down the stretch before falling a half-length short. Wonder Gadot followed that with another narrow defeat in the Woodbine Oaks, this time to Dixie Moon. She has not won a race since her juvenile finale in the Demoiselle (G2). Last year’s Sovereign Award-winning 2-year-old filly will no doubt be in contention at the end of the race, and the 10 furlongs should be to her advantage. Can she get a much-deserved win?

Pawnbroker [ML 50-1 – Gio Ponti- M. Maker/J. Rosario – 1: M-0-0 - $4,380] Maker sends out this $40,000 yearling purchase for the Ramseys in just his second career start. In his May debut he was fourth and now he takes on the Triple Crown series. Second career start for this maiden.
 

Marriage Counselor [ML 50-1 - Overanalyze - M. Maker/J. Samuel – 5: 1-0-2 - $24,490] Another runner for Maker and the Ramseys, this one recently got his first career victory in a maiden claimer on the Woodbine grass going the 10-furlong distance. Ramsey always willing to take a shot.

Neepawa [ML 15-1 – Scat Daddy – M. Casse/F. Geroux – 8: 1-1-2 - $104,614]  Neepawa has two starts on the Woodbine Tapeta. He finished second in the Coronation behind Aheadbyacentury and this year was third in an allowance. Top rider Florent Geroux has the mount on this horse that likes to stalk the pace. He should handle the distance well. Back on best surface here.

Aheadbyacentury [ML 15-1 - Midnight Lute – J. Ross/L. Contreras – 7: 2-0-3 - $233,800] This son of Midnight Lute won November's Coronation Futurity, one of the Canada’s biggest races for 2-year-olds, but the last time the winner of that race went on to Queen’s Plate glory was in 1976. It is similar to the rare Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victor taking down the Kentucky Derby. His two most-recent starts produced third-place finishes in the Marine (G3), as well as the Plate Trial behind both Telekinesis and Rose’s Vision. Aheadbyacentury has raced exclusively at Woodbine, where he also broke his maiden against open company. He looks like one that should be able to handle the distance. A notch below others.

Rose’s Vision [ML 12-1 – Artie Schiller- S. Simon/J. Castellano – 9: 2-3-1 - $140,450] As might be expected from a son of Artie Schiller, this colt found success on the grass. After an April Keeneland allowance win on the turf, he was sent to try the Woodbine Tapeta. A sixth in the Marine was disappointing, but second in the Plate Trial was a big move forward. Can he take yet another step forward?

Summary: The restricted conditions of the Queen’s Plate make the past performances for the field very unique. Two of the top horses in the field are fillies while others ran most of their races against Canada-breds.

Clearly, the Top 3 of Telekinesis, Dixie Moon, and Wonder Gadot stand out in a lot of ways, and it is likely the winner will come from that trio. I just have a feeling that an upset could just as well happen in this $1 million tussle. My upset candidates are Alternative Route and Strike Me Down.

I like the way trainer Al Stall has prepared Alternative Route for the Queen’s Plate, especially when he they won the Rushaway on the Turfway Park synthetic surface. Without traveling all the way too Toronto, Stall confirmed that his horse could handle the Woodbine track. I would have liked to see more progress in the speed figure department in his next start, but the turf at Arlington was a bog, and Alternative Route’s run under those conditions was admirable. That last race will give him higher odds here.

Strike Me Down is a horse that is getting better with every start. In his four-race career, his speed figures have improved with every start. I like the way Motion sent him to Woodbine to break his maiden on the Tapeta and followed that with a second in a Monmouth Park grass stakes. I think the synthetic track may be his best surface and this son of Tapit and the stakes winning Strike Softly has tactical speed.