Queen Elizabeth II Cup: Odds, analysis for a strong field

The Grade 1, $800,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, drew a field of nine 3-year-old fillies who will race 1 1/8 miles on the Keeneland turf course Saturday. The international field has horses who won races in four countries in North America and Europe at 13 racetracks.

The fillies in the QE II all are stakes winners. Morning-line favorite Fionn is the only Grade 1 winner in the field. Laurelin, who is undefeated in five starts, is one of two with a Grade or Group 2 victory. There are also four Grade 3 winners.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Queen Elizabeth II with morning-line odds by Brian Zipse. The QE II is set as race 9 of 10 with post time scheduled for 5:16 p.m. EDT.

1. Lush Lips, 9-2. Ten Sovereigns – Brendan Walsh / Tyler Gaffalione – 9: 3-4-0 - $381,622. Lush Lips began her career in Ireland with a pair of starts as a 2-year-old. She came to America to race at Kentucky Downs in her final starts for Aidan O’Brien. She became a winner on the synthetic track at Gulfstream Park after moving to the barn of Brendan Walsh. Her next move was back onto the turf where she ran five times with only first- or second-placed finishes. She won the Tepin at Churchill Downs in June and was second in three graded stakes, including the Del Mar Oaks (G1) in August. Win contender.

2. Laurelin, 3-1. Zarak – Graham Motion / Kendrick Carmouche – 5: 5-0-0 - $571,250. Laurelin is undefeated in five starts going back to her maiden victory at Aqueduct in October as a 2-year-old. She moved to stakes competition with a win in the New York version of the Tepin. After a five-month layoff, she made her first start of this year and won the Memories of Silver with another run from off the pace. Laurelin added the Penn Oaks before becoming a graded-stakes winner in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2). Top pick.

3. Simmering, 12-1. Too Darn Hot – Ollie Sangster / Luis Saez – 11: 2-2-3 - $362,840. Simmering will make her first appearance in North America in the QE II. Last year she raced twice as a maiden at Ascot with a Group 3 win at the July meeting after a second in the Albany (G3) against a field of 16 at the royal gathering in June. Since then, Simmering raced in five Group 1 and two Group 3 stakes in Europe without a victory, but she hit the board three times. She has had one turf workout at Keeneland. Toss.

4. Daisy Flyer, 15-1. Mshawish – Rusty Arnold / Florent Geroux – 6: 2-0-1 - $236,702. Daisy Flyer was a maiden winner at Kentucky Downs last year in her second start and then in her fifth race had a late-running victory in the Lake George (G3) at Saratoga. Last seen she had to steady at the one-eighth pole in the Dueling Grounds Oaks (G3) and finished next to last in a 12-horse field. Toss.

5. Opulent Restraint, 8-1. Dubawi – Chad Brown / Joel Rosario – 7: 2-1-2 - $301,000. Opulent Restraint won twice as a 2-year-old in a maiden at Saratoga and then in the Chelsey Flowers at Aqueduct in October to end her juvenile campaign. This year she finished top three in all three of her races, with a neck loss to Laurelin at Aqueduct and a pair of thirds at Saratoga behind that undefeated filly again and also a loss to the probable favorite Fionn. Rosario gets back on board as Flavien Prat chose to stay with the favorite. Use underneath.

6. Candy Quest, 8-1. Connect – Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz – 8: 3-3-0 - $611,481. Candy Quest was a debut winner at Aqueduct in her only start as a 2-year-old. She went to Florida for the winter, where she won an allowance and was a close second in a stakes race. Then she ran behind Laurelin twice in April in the Memories of Silver and had the lead in the Penn Oaks before finishing second. Trainer Mark Casse sent her to Canada, and she won the Ontario Cotillion (G3). Last seen she rallied from 12th at Kentucky Downs and again gave up the lead but this time to Fionn. Use underneath.

7. Destino d’Oro, 8-1. Bolt d’Oro – Brad Cox / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 5: 3-0-1 - $462,809. Destino d’Oro was a first-out winner at Kentucky Downs last year and then was third by a head in the Jessamine (G2). Her 2025 campaign began in June with an allowance win at Churchill followed by her Grade 3 victory in the Pucker Up (G3) at Ellis Park. Last month she was sixth in the Dueling Ground Oaks as an odds-on favorite. Destino d’Oro will get a rider change to Irad Ortiz Jr. Toss.

8. Will Then, 15-1. War of Will – Jonathan Thomas / Frankie Dettori – 7: 3-0-1 - $200,271. Will Then ran at five tracks in two countries. She broke her maiden in her second try at Woodbine after a debut at Kentucky Downs and then won the Jimmy Durante (G3) at Del Mar. She won again in California to start her 3-year-old racing in the China Doll at Santa Anita. Since then, Will Then was third and fifth twice in graded stakes, including a fifth-place finish in the Del Mar Oaks (G1). Toss.

9. Fionn, 5-2. Twirling Candy – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 8: 6-1-1 - $1,779,170. Fionn leads this field in number of victories and is the only $1 million earner. She broke her maiden in her second start at Fair Grounds in December, starting a three-race winning streak at the New Orleans track that included an allowance and the LaCombe Memorial. After running third in the Appalachian (G2) at Keeneland behind Nitrogen, Fionn started her current three-race string of victories. She won the Regret (G3), the Belmont Oaks (G1) and last month the Dueling Ground Oaks. The one to beat.

Summary: Fionn is the favorite and the one to beat in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, which has an accomplished international field of nine. Fionn comes to the race riding a three-race winning streak. That streak would stand at seven if she had not taken one of her only two losses at the Keeneland spring meeting.

Laurelin is undefeated in five career starts and is listed as the 3-1 second choice on the morning line. The France-bred began her career last October and improved in every start, with increasing speed figures each time. She got her first graded-stakes victory at Saratoga in August. Laurelin has been carefully handled by Graham Motion and will face the toughest field of her career. That being said, Laurelin has the look of a filly who can take another step forward on Saturday. Laurelin is the QE II top pick.