QEII: Odds and analysis for Keeneland Grade 1
The Grade 1, $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, which will be run at 1 1/8 miles on the turf Saturday at Keeneland, attracted a field of seven 3-year-old fillies who got into the race by invitation only.
Chad Brown has won the QE II four times since 2010, more than any other trainer. Rushing Fall was Brown’s second winner in 2018, and she went on to win the Eclipse Award as champion turf female in 2020.
Here is a full-field analysis for the QE II, which will be run at 5:16 p.m. EDT as race 9 of 10, with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff.
1. California Angel (10-1 – California Chrome – George Leonard III / Rafael Bejarano – 8: 2-1-2 - $276,700) California Angel won her first career start last year at Kentucky Downs along with the Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland. That led to a start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, where she finished 11th. At the beginning of her 3-year-old campaign she tried a couple of Kentucky Oaks prep races but returned to the turf. After a six-month layoff, she ran third in the Dueling Grounds Oaks. Use underneath.
2. Gina Romantica (7-2 – Into Mischief – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 6: 3-1-0 - $186,190) Gina Romantica is one of two horses for Chad Brown in this field. Brown moved her to the turf and she ran the best two races of her career. She finished second in the Pebbles (G3) last month at Belmont at the Big A when she rallied from sixth to get within a half-length of another victory. The daughter of Into Mischief was a stakes winner at Saratoga in August when she used a closing move to make up 10 lengths and beat a field of 10 in the restricted Riskaverse on the grass. Use underneath.
3. She’s Gone (15-1 – Curlin – Vickie Oliver / Luis Saez – 7: 2-0-2 - $137,418) She’s Gone broke her maiden in June at Horseshoe Indiana in the fifth start of her career. She then moved to face allowance company and finished third a neck behind the winner at Ellis Park in July. In her most recent start, She’s Gone won an allowance at Kentucky Downs with a late rally going a mile. She will make her first appearance in a stakes race in the QEII. Toss.
4. New Year’s Eve (8-1 – Kitten’s Joy – Brendan Walsh / Tyler Gaffalione – 7: 3-0-2 - $460,100) New Year’s Eve defeated McKulick in the Edgewood (G2) at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. In the Belmont Oaks (G1) and the Saratoga Oaks (G3) she could not keep up with McKulick. Most recently, she was fourth at Kentucky Downs in the Dueling Grounds Oaks. Toss.
5. Bellabel (7-2 – Belardo – Philip D’Amato / Umberto Rispoli – 8: 3-2-1 - $255,435) Bellabel made the first five starts of her career in Ireland, picking up one victory at the end of her juvenile campaign. Then she moved to the barn of California trainer Phil D’Amato and immediately won a listed stakes at Santa Anita in January. She was given time off until July, when she won the San Clemente (G2) at Del Mar. In August, Bellabel was second in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) behind a favored Graham Motion runner who had run at Royal Ascot. Use underneath.
6. McKulick (7-5 – Frankel – Chad Brown/ Irad Ortiz Jr. – 7: 3-3-1 - $1,088,650) McKulick did not run worse than third in her seven career starts from a debut victory at Saratoga as a 2-year-old to six graded-stakes races this year. The Chad Brown-trainee won 2 of the 3 legs of New York's Turf Triple series in the Belmont Oaks (G1) and the Jockey Club Oaks (G3) with a second in the Saratoga Oaks (G1) behind a Charlie Appleby runner who was the favorite. McKulick is the leading money earner in the field and has the best speed figures. The one to beat.
7. Paris Peacock (10-1 – Muhaarar – Jessica Harrington / Florent Geroux – 9: 2-5-1 - $74,934) Paris Peacock won her last two starts at Gowran Park in Ireland, including a maiden victory and then a Group 3 win going 1 3/16 miles on a turf course that was labelled yielding to soft. She raced from the middle of the 16-horse field to take the lead with a furlong left and well off challengers. Toss.
Summary: McKulick is the horse to beat in the QE II Challenge Cup. She is the leading money winner and the only Grade 1 winner in the field. The daughter of Frankel is trained by Chad Brown, who will be trying to win this race for the fifth time since 2010. McKulick got close to winning the Turf Triple for fillies in New York, being denied by a Charlie Appleby runner in the Saratoga Oaks.
Gina Romantica has a chance to complete a Chad Brown exacta finish, but the California shipper Bellabel and California Angel should compete for the second- and third-place spots.