Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup 2018: Odds and Analysis

Saturday’s Grade 1, $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup marks the last Grade 1 race for Keeneland’s fall meet. The QE II is an invitational race for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. Rushing Fall, the Chad Brown star who won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, leads the field of eight set to go postward at 5:30 p.m. ET.

Here’s a closer look at the field with projected morning odds from Horse Racing Nation:

1. Nyaleti, 15-1 (Arch – Mark Johnston/Corey Lanerie – 15:4-3-1 – $289,103): Nyaleti looks like a filly that could improve here with the time between races. She won a Group 2 in Germany this spring and then finished fourth in the Falmouth Stakes (G1) behind Alpha Centauri. Her first trip outside the United States resulted in a sixth in the Beverly D. against older fillies and mares, and she was only beaten 2 ¾ lengths. Two weeks, later she ran back in England. This is her second time traveling overseas, plus she should be fresh for the QE II. Experience is on her side.

2. Princess Warrior, 10-1 (Midshipman – Kenny McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 12:2-3-2 – $267,941): Princess Warrior appears to be getting her feet back under her. An allowance win at Ellis Park propelled her to a third in the Pucker Up (G3) and second in Kentucky Downs' lucrative Dueling Grounds Oaks. She takes a big step up in class here, and although she was runner-up in the Alcibiades (G1) on dirt at 2, she hasn’t shown the same potential she did a year ago. Improving, but getting a class test again.

3. Fatale Bere, 9-2 (Pedro the Great – Leonard Powell/Kent Desormeaux – 10:5-0-1 – $422,964): This filly enters the QE II off a career-best effort in the Del Mar Oaks (G1). While Fatale Bere is a three-time stakes winner, she hasn’t been the most consistent. She’s come from just off the pace and far back this year, producing wins and losses with both styles. She’ll also have to show she can win big on more than Southern California’s firm turf with rain possible this week in Kentucky. Unclear if she can bring her winning form here.

4. Daddy Is a Legend, 6-1 (Scat Daddy – George Weaver/Robby Albarado – 9:3-1-2 – $265,410): Daddy Is a Legend has no doubt been consistent this year, but she’s also been good at finishing behind Rushing Fall. When Rushing Fall missed the Lake George (G3), Daddy Is a Legend got her chance to break through on the East Coast. She also won Del Mar’s Jimmy Durante (G3) at 2. Likely to pick up the pieces.

5. Mission Impassible, 12-1 (Galileo – Jean-Claude Rouget/Florent Geroux – 9:4-0-1 – $211,814): This French runner is an intriguing one. She was fifth last out in a Group 1 but scored in a Group 2 one race earlier by splitting horses in the stretch. The QE II represents her first run outside France, and it will also be her first race beyond a mile. Mission Impassible will have plenty of obstacles to overcome, but if she can reproduce her winning run, she might shake things up in the stretch. Potential to surprise shipping in.

6. Secret Message, 4-1 (Hat Trick – Graham Motion/Jorge Vargas Jr. – 8:3-2-0 – $184,317): If Rushing Fall doesn’t come through, Secret Message could be ripe for the upset. She’s been improving this year and rallied to break through at this distance in the Pucker Up (G3) after a bad break. She has two runner-up finishes on soft or yielding turf, including her last race in the Sands Point (G2), which suggests the turf condition wouldn’t bother her too much if it gets more rain. Watch out for this late runner.

7. Capla Temptress, 8-1 (Lope de Vega – Bill Mott/Julien Leparoux – 9:3-1-1 – $272,456): Capla Temptress likes to make come-from-behind moves, but she doesn’t always kick it into gear. She showed a lot of potential at 2 winning the Natalma (G1) and was a surprising second in the Lake Placid (G2) to Rushing Fall. She was also seventh in this year’s Belmont Oaks (G1) and Sands Point. In the latter she ran just off the pace and faded. Needs an ideal trip.

8. Rushing Fall, 2-1 (More Than Ready – Chad Brown/Javier Castellano – 6:5-1-0 – $1,008,000): Lightly raced, she sports a nearly perfect record with two wins at Keeneland, plus a win at this distance in the Lake Placid. That score came by 2 3/4 lenghts over Capla Temptress and Daddy Is a Legend. While she seemed to be a late runner at 2, having won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, this year Rushing Fall looks to sit a bit closer to the pace. The clear class of the field.

Summary: What makes this field interesting is that, beyond Rushing Fall, contenders are evenly matched. Without a strong pace, the favorite could end up on or near the lead facing some late runners, and needing to get position from the outside post. Rushing Fall is obvious the filly to beat. Of the rest, Secret Message and Daddy Is a Legend stick out, as they always seem to show up. The Europeans should offer value if you like them.