Q&A: NHC champ Coles seeks a repeat, talks growing the game
Coles: “It’s been an incredible year for a lot of reasons. Being able to get rid of a law school loan debt and student loan debt that had carried over and racked up interest year after year. It was like paying a double mortgage. Having that gone and being able to use my money more proactively is nice. But I mean, after that it’s been all the people I’ve gotten to meet. People that I used to look up to and now they’re in my phone and just being able to talk to people on a daily basis, because I didn’t have anybody growing up that knew much about horses. I had one friend in Vegas, but he’s a professional poker player and doesn’t play (horse racing) regularly. This is something I’ve always done on my own and now to have a network of people to bounce ideas off of and talk to and just the programs keep getting better.
Coles: “I’m a very competitive person, so I don’t know if it was a blessing. I would definitely prefer to have an idea in my head, but I went there early and I think it forced me to be over-prepared -- not that you can be over-prepared -- but just making sure I had everything down. I walked through the room the day before. I didn’t know how to use a card at these tournaments. I didn’t know where the lunch buffet was. I didn’t know where I was playing, where I put my seat card thing. There were so many little things that were kind of nerve-racking before the tournament even began.
"But I knew that there was no way with all the amazing handicappers there that I was going to be the best handicapper in the room. So I was formulating a strategy that I thought, by the numbers, made sense. I’m a very data-driven person, and there are a lot of things that I’d heard people talk about over the years and statistics and things that they do in tournaments that didn’t make any sense to me but that I thought I could exploit from a strategy standpoint. But I knew I had to come with a pretty crazy and special game plan, something a little bit different than most of the people do to put myself in the best spot. Fortunately, it all kind of came together.”
Coles: “I remember just about everything. It was a Golden Gate allowance race and I think I started the Final Table in ninth. I was never in the lead. I led for all of five minutes in the whole tournament. That was after this race. It was I Love Romance, and I knew the guy in first was consistently playing the favorite and the favorite looked tough in that race so there was no way I could pick that horse. We knew we were down to a four-horse field because it had come off the turf, and you knew you were going to have very limited opportunities to make your move in the last race. So I knew it was the time, if you were going to win the tournament it was right there. The second-betting choice, I figured one of the second or third players at least were going to play that horse. Fortunately, they both did.
"So I was looking for a horse that kind of would be live and still had a good chance. It was her first or second start as a 4-year-old, (trainer) Jonathan Wong, it was an angle that STATS Race Lens says he does well with, but it was kind of a contrarian angle because he does all right claiming to allowance -- which is an angle most people will not want to use because it is a terrible class angle. But he had done fine with it and it was the price I needed and the horse I thought had a lot of reason to improve. In a situation like that, you’re dealing with a lot of unknowns, but it was the type of the horse who was still young enough and horses turning from 3 to 4 are horses I like to look at for an improvement angle. The horse just ran the race of her life. It was close and I’ll never forget it, but the work wasn’t done because both people behind me had picked that horse as well. So I still had to pick the winner in the last. Luckily, Mike Smith somehow stuck around for a four-horse race off the turf and gave the horse (Fiery Lady) a good ride in the last won it.”
Coles: “I learned how to bet, honestly, I think when there was a Greyhound track in Kenosha, Wisc., that used to be open that my family lived close by. So we used to go up there and have some fun on a Friday or Saturday once in a while and I learned how to read a racing form and place simple bets. My dad did know that much. He wasn’t a serious handicapper, but he knew how to do those things. So he was able to teach me all that. I would look at the serious people who looked like they were making the most money and I would be like ‘There has to be more to this’. So slowly, I would kind of study things and we would always watch the big days, the Triple Crown races.
"But if you didn’t have the special horse racing package -- especially back then -- you didn’t get to see much else. And it wasn’t legal in Illinois, the online ADWs. I kind of really turned it up once that became legal. I think it was 2013 right before Palace Malice won the Belmont Stakes. I think I watched TVG at the time and TVG all of the sudden was legal for Illinois players, so I don’t think I was seen the rest of the weekend. I got right to betting and learning a lot of things the hard way. The American Pharoah Triple Crown is where my love for the sport kind of took off. I just love that horse so much. I watched him as a 2-year-old and every step of the way as a 3-year-old. It was so crazy and I still get goosebumps watching the highlight reel of that horse, and I wish we would have gotten to see more of him after that. But that’s what kind of drew me in. I love puzzles and I love handicapping and in a way, it doesn’t really feel like work to me. It just feels like solving puzzles. It’s very comparable to everything I’ve done in my whole life.
“That kind of leads me into the next segment. I think getting the word out as to how similar (handicapping) is to the daily fantasy world and the poker world and players like that who are doing similar things would help (bring in new people). Just finding ways to make data more accessible and not completely insane with the prices for what people need to do the work. There are some companies that are doing better. I think STATS Race Lens is pretty affordable and there are usually promo codes available. Things like TimeformUS you can get a decent idea. Anyone who provides data and allows people to see it or do promos and give people free stuff for the weekend to try it out. Things like that are great to get people involved. Things like that and more videos and more reach.
"I think people are just intimidated, kind of like when you walk by a craps table and see a million things going on. But then, once you learn the game, you kind of get hooked pretty easily and see that it’s just amazing and there are so many sides to it that are really cool. The horses are just amazing animals and there is just a lot of cool stuff. I think certain people have a jaded view of racing. They think it’s people down to their last dollar and being in a real grimy place. They don’t know that horse tournaments and things like the NHC Tour are top-class events all the way and have a lot of really good people who are so welcoming to newcomers. We just need to get the word out that tournaments are a great option.”