Proven Kentucky Derby formula tabs Improbable as top pick
A formula that has accurately picked the Kentucky Derby winner in five straight years honed in on Improbable as the most likely hero in Saturday's race -- and that's before race favorite Omaha Beach's scratch was announced Wednesday evening.
According to SportsBettingDime.com, which touts reliable up-to-the-minute
odds and predictive analysis, Improbable scores the best figure in an algorithm combining foaling date, post position and jockeys with Derby experience.
"According to our formula, Improbable is the horse you
should be betting right now, especially while odds are still around 6-1," said Matt McEwan, chief sports data scientist. "Roadster, on the other hand, is the horse to avoid at the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
“No horse with a score greater than 100 in our formula has won the Derby in the last five years. Roadster's score comes out to 317."
Improbable scored out at 89.75. The lower the total, the better.
Scores are calculated as follows: ((Birthdate's day of the year/365) X
(post position tier multiplier)) - (.05 for a previous jockey KD win)) x
(morning-line American odds).
As for that multiplier, post Nos. 5-13 receive the smallest multiplier. Nos. 3-4 and 14-16 are next. Then the stalls widely regarded as the worst, on the far inside and outside, are multiplied most in this formula.
Here's how the scoring has worked out for the Top 4 morning line choices the last four years:
2019 Scores
Omaha Beach
(scratched) = 142.4
Roadster = 317.4
Game Winner = 108.6
Improbable
= 89.75
2018 Scores
Justify:
66.9 (winner)
Audible 142.48
(3rd)
Magnum Moon: 318.1
(19th)
Mendelssohn: 281.5
(20th)
2017 Scores
Always
Dreaming: 74.7 (winner)
Classic Empire:
131.5 (4th)
McCracken: 211.6
(8th)
Irish War Cry: 340
(10th)
2016 Scores
Nyquist 58.71 (winner)
Exaggerator: 61.9
(2nd)
Gun Runner: 455.9
(3rd)
Mohaymen: 501.4
(4th)
2015 Scores
American
Pharoah: 25.75 (winner)
Dortmund: 60.9
(3rd)
Carpe Diem: 160.2
(10th)
Materiality: 488.2
(6th)
2014 Scores
California Chrome:
18.8 (winner)
Hoppertunity: 241.4
(scratched)
Wicked Strong:
439.7 (4th)
Danza: 439.7 (3rd)