Prospect Watch: These 6 juveniles are worth your attention
The highly anticipated summer meets at Del Mar and Saratoga are just around the corner, which means top-class juvenile racing is about to heat up in a big way on the California and New York circuits.
In the meantime, an intriguing slate of maiden special weights for juveniles will unfold at tracks across the country this week. Let’s review a handful of the most promising first-time starters in the entries for these pre-Del Mar/Saratoga appetizers:
Friday
Gulfstream Park Race 6: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 4:34 p.m. EDT)
It’s safe to say Summertime Magic is bred to win from an early age. A daughter of Carpe Diem, who won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) as a juvenile, Summertime Magic was produced by the stakes-placed Tapit mare Tap Softly, best known as the dam of early-maturing Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Silver Prospector.
Summertime Magic has been training sharply for Hall of Fame conditioner Mark Casse, cranking out a trio of :47-and-change half-mile breezes in the last month. An encouraging debut should be in the offing for the gray filly, who sold for $90,000 as a yearling.
#10 Change Plans
A daughter of three-time leading sire Tapit, Change Plans was produced by the Empire Maker mare Mei Ling, winner of the 1 1/16-mile Heavenly Prize as a 5-year-old. Whereas Summertime Magic is bred to mature early, Change Plans boasts a stout pedigree geared toward long-term success in route races.
As a result, we shouldn’t really expect a winning effort from Change Plans on Friday, especially since trainer Tom Proctor (an 18 percent winner overall) strikes at only a 2 percent rate with first-time starters. Change Plans is unlikely to be cranked for a peak effort. But we can look for this $350,000 weanling acquisition to improve with time and distance and to potentially develop into a stakes star down the road.
Saturday
Ellis Park Race 7: Maiden special weight (seven furlongs, 4:40 p.m. EDT)
#5 Bunduki
2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner is off to a hot start at stud, siring 42 percent winners from first-time starters. Perhaps he can pick up another winner when Bunduki makes her debut under colors on Saturday at Ellis Park.
Certainly Bunduki is bred to be a star. Her dam, Burg Berg, already has achieved renown for producing Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) winner Lombo and Ellis Park Derby hero Gray Magician. This is a pedigree geared strongly toward success over two-turn distances, though Bunduki has also shown speed in the mornings, most recently breezing a half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :47 3/5.
Trainer Kenny McPeek wins at only a 6 percent rate with first-time starters, but don’t be surprised if Bunduki (a $250,000 yearling purchase) outruns her odds.
Belmont Park Race 1: Maiden special weight (six furlongs on turf, 1:00 p.m. EDT)
Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey is set to debut the well-bred prospect Fort Ticonderoga, a son of internationally successful sire War Front out of the Minardi mare Ballet Pacifica. This cross already has proven productive, with Fort Ticonderoga’s full brother Secretary At War winning the Woodhaven Stakes and finishing second in the Seabiscuit Handicap (G2).
With this classy grass pedigree in tow, Fort Ticonderoga appears well-spotted for his debut. Whether he is ready to win right out of the gate is another question – McGaughey strikes at only a 10 percent rate with first-time starters – but hot jockey Jose Ortiz is named to ride, and Fort Ticonderoga breezed a bullet half-mile at Belmont on Tuesday. There are definitely encouraging signs here.
Gulfstream Park Race 7: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:23 p.m. EDT)
#7 Kuhl Star
The first of two Saffie Joseph Jr. trainees in this 5 1/2-furlong dash, Kuhl Star is a son of Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags out of the Northern Afleet mare Light Bringer. The latter matured early enough to place against stakes company at age 2 (and win a stakes at age 3), so combine this with the fact Union Rags won the Champagne Stakes (G1) and Saratoga Special (G2) as a juvenile, and it is not a stretch to think Kuhl Star can be effective from an early age.
Certainly Kuhl Star been training forwardly, turning in a trio of :47-and-change half-mile moves since June 5. Jockey Edgard Zayas (a 37 percent winner when teaming up with Joseph) is named to ride, stamping Kuhl Star as a major player for Saturday’s sprint.
Don’t forget about Kuhl Star’s stablemate. The second Saffie Joseph trainee is a son of Preakness (G1) winner Exaggerator out of the War Chant mare Twinkling, previously the dam of Tampa Bay Derby (G2) third-place finisher and recent Roar Stakes winner Moonlite Strike.
Moonlite Strike went 2-for-3 as a juvenile, and Exaggerator came to hand quick enough to claim the Saratoga Special (G2) and place in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at age 2. So, as with Kuhl Star, Skippylongstocking boasts a deceptively win-early pedigree. We know he has speed – he cranked out a swift half-mile in :46 4/5 at Palm Meadows last month – and jockey J. C. Diaz (a 38 percent winner teaming up with Joseph) is slated to ride. There’s a lot to like about Skippylongstocking.