Prospect Watch: Maiden ranks relevant again on the Derby trail
About a week ago, we were reaching that point in the racing season when maiden races for 3-year-olds stop being relevant as part of the Triple Crown trail. If a horse fails to secure its first victory before the middle of March, it’s usually tough to progress into the the spring classics.
Then came the announcement that the 2020 Kentucky Derby will be postponed to Sept. 5 because of the coronavirus pandemic. Now, as of Friday, there are 169 days to go until the Derby, and all those maiden races are back in play as potential steppingstones to Churchill Downs.
It’s
possible the Derby winner hasn’t even debuted yet, which would have been hard
to imagine before this week's news dropped. So with this in mind, let’s continue as usual and review a half-dozen promising
prospects to watch this weekend:
Friday
Santa Anita Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (1 mile on turf, 7:08 p.m. ET)
#2 West Sider
Trained by Bob Baffert, this $200,000 yearling purchase delivered a winning effort in his debut at Santa Anita on Feb. 2, rallying from a few lengths off the pace to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths. A grass race might seem like an odd spot for West Sider’s first start against winners, but with limited allowance options for 3-year-olds at Santa Anita, this might be the perfect opportunity to let West Sider stretch out in distance without jumping straight into graded stakes company. Sire Uncle Mo is responsible for several high-class turf runners, including Hollywood Derby (G1) winners Mo Tom and Mo Forza, so there’s a chance West Sider will handle the surface switch just fine. Regardless of how he performs on Friday, don’t be surprised if West Sider transitions back to dirt next time out.
Saturday
Fair Grounds Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 3:06 p.m. ET)
#1 Verb
It's hard to believe Verb hasn’t broken his maiden by now. Trained by Keith
Desormeaux, the son of Dialed In has been knocking heads with high-class
runners since last May, cracking the trifecta in all five of his starts without
ever reaching the winner’s circle. The horses who have beaten Verb include the
stakes winners Fore Left, By Your Side, Basin, Phantom Boss and Rowdy Yates — suffice
it to say, that’s some tough company. Verb has never run farther than six furlongs, but he will stretch out to 1 1/16 miles on Saturday. Perhaps the
substantial step up in distance will make the difference for Verb, a Calumet
Farm runner purchased for $65,000 as a weanling.
#2 Malahini
Although Mahalini never fired in his debut on Feb. 15 at Fair Grounds, retreating steadily to finish 10, stretching out from six furlongs may trigger improvement. As a son of Curlin out of the four-time graded stakes-winning sprinter Kauai Katie, this $825,000 yearling purchase always has had the pedigree to be a high-class runner. Trainer Mark Casse is showing confidence by tossing Malahini right back into a competitive maiden special weight, and the colt has trained forwardly since his debut. An improved effort at lofty odds could be in the offing.
#7 Mystic Guide
We featured Mystic Guide prior to his debut sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds on Feb. 15, when we noted that the son of Ghostzapper “figures to be at his best when tackling route distances down the road.” Mystic Guide will get his opportunity on Saturday, and I’m expecting a victory. A Godolphin homebred trained by Michael Stidham, Mystic Guide ran a big race first time out, overcoming a poor start to rally and finish third by just 1 1/4 lengths. Produced by the A. P. Indy mare Music Note, a five-time Grade 1 winner who placed in two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (G1), Mystic Guide should thrive while stretching out over 1 1/16 miles. Take note: Stidham wins at a 22% rate with horses running long for the first time.
Gulfstream Park Race 6: Maiden Special
Weight (6 furlongs, 3:15 p.m. ET)
#1 Celtic Brotherhood
In this six-furlong maiden dash for Florida-breds, the first-time starter Celtic Brotherhood is worth watching. As a son of Brethren out of the Boston Harbor mare Boston Maggie, Celtic Brotherhood is a half-brother to Shes a Bullet, a four-time graded stakes winner in Puerto Rico. Celtic Brotherhood’s work tab is modest, but he’s been breezing over the slow track at Palm Beach Downs, so his works might be better than they appear at first glance. Trainer George Weaver wins at a solid 17% rate with debut runners, and he’s been on fire across the board at Gulfstream this winter, winning with 39% of his starters. Top jockey Luis Saez has accepted the mount, so keep an eye on this $60,000 auction purchase, who will race in the colors of West Point Thoroughbreds.
Oaklawn Park Race 10: Maiden Special
Weight (6 furlongs, 6:38 p.m. ET)
#7 Prodigious Bay
Purchased for $110,000 as a 2-year-old in training, Prodigious Bay flashed talent in his debut, sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs last November. Overlooked at 11-1, the son of Bayern pressed a fair pace before weakening only a little down the stretch to finish third behind future Risen Star (G2) winner Mr. Monomoy. It was a promising effort, considering trainer Ron Moquett doesn’t often win with first-time starters, and while Prodigious Bay hasn’t run since, Saturday’s sprint at Oaklawn looks like an ideal place to get back on track. Prodigious Bay did breeze a fast half-mile in :47 4/5 on Feb. 29, suggesting he’ll be reasonably fit off the layoff.