Prospect Watch: Million-dollar sophomores aim for maiden wins
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Photo:
Eclipse Sportswire
Exactly three years ago on Thursday, Triple Crown winner Justify made his debut at Santa Anita, crushing a seven-furlong maiden special weight by 9 1/2 lengths. They said it couldn’t be done—winning the Derby off such a late debut—but Justify ultimately rewrote the history books and proved anything is possible.
The takeaway? It’s still possible the 2021 Kentucky Derby winner has yet to break his maiden. With this intriguing thought in mind, let’s examine a handful of promising sophomores entered to race in high-profile maiden special weights on Saturday at Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park…
Saturday, Feb. 20
Aqueduct Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (1 mile, 3:20 p.m. ET)
#4 Exalted Charm
A son of capable miler Anchor Down out of a mare by Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner Silver Charm, Exalted Charm failed to challenge after breaking slowly in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Gulfstream. Racing near the back of the pack throughout, Exalted Charm finished eighth by 23 lengths. But the quality of the field was deep (runaway winner Prevalence is widely regarded as a Derby candidate), and Exalted Charm is eligible to improve while facing easier company at Aqueduct. Keep in mind, trainer Kelly Breen wins at a solid 20% rate with second-time starters, and Exalted Charm has been nominated to the Triple Crown.
#6 I Am the Law
Speaking of Triple Crown nominees, the first-time starter I Am the Law has also been made eligible for the series. As a son of Mshawish (a Grade 1 winner on both dirt and turf) out of a mare by the versatile sire Distorted Humor, I Am the Law has the pedigree to be a multi-surface threat for trainer John Terranova. First things first, we’ll see how he handles dirt under hot jockey Kendrick Carmouche. A lengthy series of workouts over the Belmont Park training track should have I Am the Law fit for a respectable effort on debut.
#7 Will E Sutton
Sold for $1 million as a yearling, Will E Sutton ran evenly in his debut on Feb. 8 at Aqueduct, tracking the pace in a seven-furlong sprint before weakening slightly to finish fourth. It’s interesting to see the son of Curlin wheeling back just 12 days later for hot trainer Jonathan Thomas, who strikes at a lofty 33% rate (from a large sample size) with second-time starters. An improved effort should be in the offing from this Triple Crown nominee.
Gulfstream Park Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/8 miles, 3:41 p.m. ET)
#1 Ghazaaly
Although Ghazaaly never threatened for victory in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Gulfstream last month, the son of Curlin nevertheless stayed on gamely down the stretch to finish third behind Prevalence and Stage Raider, the latter being a half-brother to Justify. Produced by the Giant’s Causeway mare Transportation, this $1.05 million yearling purchase is bred to thrive while stretching out in distance for the first time, which is a winning move 27% of the time for trainer Todd Pletcher. A Triple Crown nominee owned by Shadwell Stable, Ghazaaly looms as the runner to beat in his second start.
#6 Swingman
A son of Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist conditioned by Kenny McPeek, Swingman was far from disgraced in two starts on the Kentucky circuit last fall. After finishing third in a seven-furlong sprint at Churchill Downs, Swingman stretched out over 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland to finish third again, beaten 6 3/4 lengths by future Sam F. Davis (G3) third-place finisher Hidden Stash. It’s possible Swingman will need to get a race under his belt before returning to peak form—after all, he hasn’t run in four months. But the 1 1/8-mile distance should be right up his alley, and McPeek wins at a solid 20% rate with horses racing on Lasix for the first time. Ignore this Triple Crown nominee at your own risk.
#7 Prayer Book
The second Pletcher trainee isn’t nominated to the Triple Crown, but that doesn’t mean an encouraging effort isn’t in the offing. A son of hot sire Uncle Mo out of the Broken Vow mare Bella Jolie, Prayer Book is a half-brother to Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner and champion sprinter Runhappy, so Prayer Book is eligible to improve while transitioning to dirt off a couple of uninspiring efforts on turf. Hot jockey Irad Ortiz (a 31% winner when teaming up with Pletcher) retains the mount on Prayer Book, who sold for a lofty $500,000 as a yearling.
Enjoy the racing!
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