Prospect Watch: Kentucky Derby contenders on Pegasus day?
The Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup and Pegasus World Cup Turf are the obvious highlights on Saturday’s action-packed card at Gulfstream Park. But fans are also advised to check out the afternoon’s fourth race, a competitive maiden special weight packed with promising 3-year-olds.
The majority of the dozen entrants are experienced runners with one or more races to their credit. But five are untested first-time starters, and we’ll give each one a look in this week’s Prospect Watch.
Saturday, Jan. 29
Gulfstream Park Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs, 12:57 p.m. EST)
No. 5 Mackillop
Age: 3
Pedigree: Into Mischief–Tres Osos, by Malibu Moon
Purchase price: $300,000
Trainer: Chad Brown
Four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown is set to saddle Mackillop, a son of three-time leading sire Into Mischief. Sold for $300,000 as a juvenile, Mackillop is bred to be a speedy and early-maturing sort; after all, Into Mischief sires a solid 16 percent winners from first-time starters.
Mackillop has been training forwardly over the slow track at Payson Park, most recently clocking four furlongs in a bullet 49.4 seconds. Jockey Jose Ortiz (a 38 percent winner teaming up with Brown over the last two months) is named to ride, setting the stage for an encouraging debut.
No. 7 Magia Nera
Age: 3
Pedigree: Bernardini–Jet Black Magic, by Hold Me Back
Purchase price: $100,000
Trainer: Kelly Breen
There’s plenty of class in the pedigree of Magia Nera. Sire Bernardini was a champion three-year-old who won the Preakness, while dam Jet Black Magic nabbed the Delta Downs Princess (G3) as a juvenile. And while strong bloodlines alone won’t make an elite racehorse, they’re a good place to start.
Magia Naria has put together a solid work tab for trainer Kelly Breen, who wins at a respectable 19 percent rate with first-time starters. After turning in a series of five-furlong workouts (including a gate move at Palm Meadows in 1:00.8 seconds), Magia Nera capped off his preparations with a quick half mile in 48.2 seconds. Don’t be surprised if Magia Naria outruns his 12-1 morning line odds.
No. 8 Umbra
Age: 3
Pedigree: Blame–Gloaming, by Malibu Moon
Purchase price: N/A
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
A Stuart S. Janney III homebred, Umbra hails from the barn of National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. Janney, in partnership with Phipps Stable, bred and owned McGaughey’s 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb.
Only time will tell if Umbra can follow the same path, but at least he has a quality pedigree in his corner. Sire Blame won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and dam sire Malibu Moon is the sire of Orb, so it’s safe to say Umbra has stamina in his pedigree. His work tab isn’t overly flashy, and seven furlongs is probably shorter than Umbra wants to run, but this race can be a stepping stone toward bigger and better things.
No. 10 Swing Shift
Age: 3
Pedigree: Midnight Storm–Tasunke, by Indian Charlie
Purchase price: $550,000
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Sold for $550,000 as a juvenile, Swing Shift is conditioned by ultra-hot trainer Todd Pletcher, who has gone 22-for-53 (42 percent) at Gulfstream Park this winter. This includes a stellar 6-for-15 (40 percent) record with first-time starters, suggesting Swing Shift will be ready to fire a strong shot on debut.
As a son of versatile Grade 1 winner Midnight Storm (a high-class competitor on both dirt and turf), Swing Shift has the pedigree to perform on multiple surfaces. But he’ll kick things off on dirt with three-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz aboard, so there’s a chance he’ll develop into a Kentucky Derby type.
No. 12 Congressman
Age: 3
Pedigree: Constitution–Don’t Stop to Shop, by Unbridled’s Song
Purchase price: $275,000
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
The second Pletcher trainee in this deep field is Congressman, a son of Pletcher’s Florida Derby (G1) and Donn Handicap (G1) winner Constitution. Considering Constitution loved Gulfstream Park and sires 19 percent winners from first-time starters, there’s a lot to like about Congressman’s chances.
Congressman has shown some speed in the mornings, most notably clocking five furlongs in a quick 1:00.2 seconds at Palm Beach Downs. Just as importantly, he’ll be ridden by Luis Saez, a 44 percent winner teaming up with Pletcher over the last two months. Swing Shift is a shorter price on the morning line, but Congressman might have the better chance at prevailing.