Prospect Watch: 6 maiden 3-year-olds worth your attention
Another great weekend of racing awaits at racetracks across the country, and while it’s probably too late for 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders to debut, that doesn’t mean we won’t see a future star exit the maiden ranks.
Remember Tiznow, the only two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic? And Arrogate, the richest racehorse in North American history? Both were voted champion 3-year-old male at the Eclipse Awards, even though neither debuted until April of their sophomore seasons.
With this in mind, let’s dig in and review half a dozen promising 3-year-olds worth watching. You never know when the next champion will emerge.
Friday
Oaklawn Park Race 5: Maiden special weight (6 furlongs, 4:06 p.m. EDT)
No. 6 Time Is Yours
There’s plenty of quality in the pedigree of Time Is Yours. Sold for $130,000 as a yearling, the bay colt hails from the first crop of high-class juvenile Not This Time (who sires 22 percent debut winners) out of an unraced mare by Horse of the Year Ghostzapper.
So far, Time Is Yours appears to be living up to his lofty lineage. He’s shown speed in the mornings at Oaklawn, most recently blazing a bullet five furlongs from the starting gate in 59.8. Considering trainer Kelly Von Hemel strikes at a 21 percent rate with first-time starters, there are plenty of reasons to believe Time Is Yours can fire a big shot on debut.
Saturday
Fair Grounds Race 2: Maiden special weight (1 1/16 miles, 12:48 p.m. ET)
No. 1 Road Bible
Talk about a classy pedigree! Road Bible is a son of Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up Pioneerof the Nile (the sire of Triple Crown champion American Pharoah) out of the stakes-winning mare Wonder Gal, who placed four times at the Grade 1 level.
Wonder Gal was a talented sprinter/miler, but Pioneerof the Nile brings stamina to the equation, so versatility could potentially be a strong suit for Road Bible. Sold for $610,000 as a yearling, the bay colt is nominated to the Triple Crown and has been training steadily at Fair Grounds for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. After clocking a bullet five furlongs from the starting gate in 59.4 on Mar. 1, it’s clear Road Bible has at least a little ability—we’ll find out how much when he takes center stage on Saturday.
Fair Grounds Race 5: Maiden special weight (6 furlongs, 2:13 p.m. ET)
No. 3 Beduin Fighter
Like Road Bible, Beduin Fighter has flashed speed in the mornings for Steve Asmussen, most notably clocking five furlongs from the Fair Grounds starting gate in 59.2. Although he’s not a Triple Crown nominee, Beduin Fighter is bred to be a classy prospect; he’s a son of elite sire War Front (whose progeny win over all surfaces and distances) out of a mare by Horse of the Year Mineshaft.
War Front is primarily renowned for his success siring turf horses, with many excelling in Europe. But his best dirt runners include Preakness (G1) champ War of Will and two-time Grade 1 winner Omaha Beach, so on paper there’s potential for Beduin Fighter to develop into a high-class runner on the main track.
Gulfstream Park Race 6: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:37 p.m. ET)
No. 1 Jeebar
Although we usually focus on first-time starters in Prospect Watch, we would be remiss if we failed to give a shout-out to Jeebar. A son of Metropolitan Handicap (G1) winner Frosted, this Juan Avila trainee has shown plenty of potential in his first two starts against tough competition at Gulfstream Park.
Indeed, in his Jan. 9 debut, Jeebar came out second best behind future Sam F. Davis (G3) winner Candy Man Rocket, with next-out winners Promise Keeper and Untreated among his beaten rivals. Then, on Feb. 6, Jeebar was beaten just a nose by the promising Democracy, with subsequent runaway maiden winners Bears Watching and Collaborate behind him.
Surely the third time will be the charm for Jeebar? Quick workouts suggest he’s still in strong form, and it’s going to take a serious racehorse to beat him on Saturday.
No. 7 Successful One
If any horse has the pedigree to challenge Jeebar, it’s surely his Juan Avila-trained stablemate Successful One. The son of Tale of the Cat was produced by the Successful Appeal mare Successful Sarah, whose previous foals include multiple Grade 2 winner and Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) runner-up C Z Rocket.
Since Avila strikes at just an eight percent rate with first-time starters, Successful One probably won’t be cranked for a winning effort on debut. On the other hand, the bay colt has put together a steady string of workouts at Gulfstream Park dating back to October, so a top-three finish could potentially be in the offing.
No. 9 Hierro
Although Hierro sold for just $17,000 as a yearling, he’s actually bred to be a quality runner. Sired by Kentucky Derby runner-up Bodemeister, whose son Always Dreaming went one better with a victory in the “Run for the Roses,” Hierro was produced by the Smart Strike mare Golden Motion, previously the dam of Zia Park Oaks winner Golden Emotion.
As with Successful One, Hierro probably isn’t cranked to win right out of the gate, considering trainer Daniel Pita has gone just 1-for-30 saddling first-time starters since 2017. But this may be something of a statistical anomaly, since Pita went 10-for-79 (13 percent) with debut runners between 2010 and 2016. Hierro wrapped up his preparations for this race by breezing a bullet half mile in 48.2 from the Gulfstream Park West starting gate, so there are reasons to believe he can outrun expectations on Saturday.