Prospect Watch: Half to Breeders' Cup winner set for debut

On a truly “Super Saturday” of Breeders’ Cup prep races, the future of racing will be on display in a high-profile maiden race at Belmont Park, while a Friday afternoon event at Churchill Downs and Sunday maiden flight at Santa Anita both bear mentioning by the Prospect Watch.

While the participants aren’t yet established stars, who’s to say a year or two from now we won’t be analyzing their abilities just as passionately as we analyze the abilities of McKinzie and Midnight Bisou?

Yes, the big-name horses running in Grade 1 races will attract most of the headlines this week. But to make sure we don’t forget the next generation, let’s examine some promising 2-year-olds entered to race this weekend.

Friday

Churchill Downs Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (6 ½ furlongs)

#4 Silver State

Trainer Steve Asmussen is having a tough time with juveniles at the Churchill Downs September meet, as he’s gone just 1-for-15 overall and 0-for-3 with first-time starters. But perhaps Silver State can help reverse these trends. A son of Hard Spun out of the Empire Maker mare Supreme (the dam of three winners from three starters), Silver State has the pedigree of a promising prospect and appropriately sold for $450,000 as a yearling. A lengthy work tab at Churchill Downs adds to the appeal of Silver State, who races for the notable partnership of Winchell Thoroughbreds and Willis Horton.

#10 Newscaster

Trainer Steve Hobby might not be a household name, but he’s trained some nice runners through the years, including the 2003 Singapore Plate Stakes (G3) winner Sue’s Good News and her tough-as-nails daughter Tiz Miz Sue, winner of the 2013 Ogden Phipps Handicap (G1). On Friday, Hobby will unveil Sue’s Good News’ latest foal Newscaster, whose half-siblings include not only Tiz Miz Sue, but also 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Bulletin. A son of Uncle Mo, Newscaster has been firing off fast workouts at Churchill Downs, including a half-mile in :47 2/5 on September 21. Hobby doesn’t win very often with first-time starters, but judging from his pedigree and workouts, Newscaster might be primed for a big effort on debut.

Saturday

Belmont Park Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (6 furlongs)

#1 Juulstone

Hessonite was a classy New York-bred turf mare a few years back, winning nine stakes races (including the Grade 3 Beaugay Stakes) during a productive career. Now she’s a broodmare, and her second named foal is Juulstone, a son of American Pharoah conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. Juulstone probably isn’t primed for a winning effort on Saturday; he’s bred more for turf than dirt, and McGaughey rarely wins with first-time starters. But top jockey John Velazquez has accepted the mount, and Juulstone might be one to watch down the road, particularly if he transitions to grass.

#6 Ethos

Centennial Farms went to $550,000 to purchase this son of Ghostzapper from a 2-year-old sale at Gulfstream Park, where he breezed a furlong in :10 1/5. Although Ethos’ dam, Happy Now, has yet to produce a stakes winner, she’s a half-sister to six stakes winners, including the graded winners Ironicus, On Leave, Norumbega, Hunting, and Quiet Harbor. There are plenty of grass influences in Ethos’ pedigree, so don’t be surprised if this Jimmy Jerkens-trained runner ultimately proves best on turf.

#9 Mandatory

A half-brother to 2015 Cotillion Stakes (G1) winner I’m a Chatterbox, Mandatory is yet another well-bred runner from the first crop of American Pharoah. Acquired for $400,000 as a 2-year-old in training, Mandatory has posted a couple of sharp workouts at Belmont Park in recent weeks and could be a live prospect for trainer John Kimmel, who is 3-for-12 (25%) with juvenile first-time starters at Belmont since 2016.

#10 Toledo

This Juddmonte Farms homebred is a son of leading stallion Into Mischief out of a Bernardini mare, so he’s bred to win early but also carry his speed over at least a mile. Conditioned by Chad Brown, Toledo has posted a solid series of workouts at Belmont Park in preparation for his debut and will have top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle. Based on his connections and respectable work tab, Toledo could start as the favorite on Saturday.

Sunday

Santa Anita Park Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs)

#3 Thunder Code

He closed well on debut for trainer John Shirreffs, who isn’t known for having them ready to fire at first asking. We’ll get a better ready on the Jerry Moss homebred son of Honor Code given the winner of his flight, American Theorem, goes first in Friday’s American Pharoah Stakes (G1). Runner-up Hydrogen has already flopped in a minor Los Alamitos stakes.

#4 Eel Point

The $600,000 son of Into Mischief, out of an Afleet Alex mare, attracted $600,000 as a yearling from the top connections of SF Bloodstock and Starlight West. Since then, Sol Kumin’s Madaket Stables has bought in, always a sign that a horse has talent. The other Baffert trainee in the field, #6 Heros Reward, enters his debut off three straight gate works, a sign that it might be worth seeing him run before placing a bet on the Gary and Mary West colt.

#5 Great Power

He didn’t meet reserve when hammering for $290,000 as a yearling, but the growing partnership of trainer Simon Callaghan and Qatar Racing, which is doing more business in the United States these days, has since acquired the son of Blame. Out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, this colt will have Flavien Prat aboard for his debut and shows a bullet three-furlong work at the end of August.