Prospect Watch: Half-brothers to Sinister Minister, Girvin to debut
A son of Grade 1 winner Curvy, a second-time starter trying turf for trainer Ian Wilkes, half-brothers to Sinister Minister and Girvin — there are plenty of promising 2-year-olds entered to race across the country this week.
In our latest edition of Prospect Watch, we highlight seven well-bred youngsters to follow at Del Mar, Ellis Park and Saratoga.
Thursday, July 23
Saratoga Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 1:54 p.m. ET)
#3 Mo Normal
A daughter of juvenile champion and successful sire Uncle Mo, Mo Normal’s dam is New Normal, winner of the 2010 Natalma (G3) racing a mile on turf at Woodbine. Uncle Mo might be primarily known for his prowess siring dirt runners, but he’s also responsible for some high-class grass horses, including Hollywood Derby (G1) winners Mo Town and Mo Forza. With this in mind, Mo Normal looms as the horse to beat on debut for trainer Christophe Clement, who has gone 6-for-15 (40%) to start the Saratoga meet. She took a spin over the Saratoga turf course on July 13, waltzing a half-mile in :53, and will be guided by two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz. It’s easy to see why Mo Normal is the 5-2 morning line favorite.
Saturday, July 25
Ellis Park Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 mile, 2:46 p.m. ET)
#2 Western Pharoah
A Calumet Farm homebred trained by Jack Sisterson, Western Pharoah is a son of Triple Crown champion American Pharoah out of the Exchange Rate mare White Clover, a two-time stakes winner who placed in the 1 1/16-mile Monmouth Oaks (G3). Western Pharoah has turned in a lengthy series of workouts at Keeneland in preparation for his debut, culminating with a quick half-mile in :48 1/5 on July 18. As a May foal, it’s possible Western Pharoah isn’t as far along as some of his older rivals. But this well-bred youngster warrants watching based on his pedigree alone, and if he shows promise at Ellis Park, improvement down the road figures to be in the offing.
Trainer Steve Asmussen has been on fire with juveniles this season, going 15 for 44 (34%) so far, and on Saturday he’ll saddle 6-5 morning line favorite Midnight Bourbon in the third race at Ellis Park. A son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Tiznow, Midnight Bourbon was produced by the unraced Malibu Moon mare Catch the Moon, who has already achieved acclaim as the dam of Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Girvin and Iroquois (G3) victor Cocked and Loaded. This is a pedigree geared sharply toward stamina, so Midnight Bourbon — a January foal who sold for $525,000 as a yearling — should enjoy the opportunity to race a mile on debut.
Ellis Park Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (1 mile on turf, 4:10 p.m. ET)
This gray colt didn’t run badly in his debut over the Churchill Downs dirt for trainer Ian Wilkes, rallying from last place to place fourth in a five-furlong dash. He finished just 5 1/2 lengths behind Therideofalifetime, who returned to crush a similar maiden race with impressive speed figures. Considering Wilkes rarely wins with first-time starters, Private Island should show improvement second-time out while switching to turf and stretching out significantly in distance. The progeny of Bodemeister strike at an 11% rate when trying turf for the first time, and dam Lenawee previously produced River City Handicap (G3) winner Thatcher Street, so there’s plenty of turf breeding in Private Island’s pedigree. A strong performance should be on the horizon.
#6 Mr. Slate
Sold for $260,000 as a yearling, Mr. Slate hails from the first crop of Flintshire, a five-time Grade 1 winner who twice finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1). Suffice to say, Mr. Slate is bred to be an effective turf horse and should enjoy tackling the lawn on debut. But according to statistics from Brisnet, high-percentage trainer Bret Calhoun has gone 0-for-29 with horses debuting on turf in recent years, suggesting Mr. Slate might need to get a race under his belt before vying for victory.
#9 Lock Up
Remember Sinister Minister? The speedy Bob Baffert trainee made headlines when dominating the 2006 Blue Grass (G1) by 12 3/4 lengths, emerging as one of the favorites for that year’s Kentucky Derby. (He finished 16th.) Now Sinister Minister’s half-brother Lock Up has arrived on the scene for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. A son of Maclean’s Music, the sire of 2017 Preakness (G1) winner Cloud Computing, Lock Up sold for $300,000 as a yearling and has shown decent speed in the mornings at Churchill Downs. But with a pedigree geared more toward dirt than turf, it’s unclear what to expect from this 8-1 shot in his first run.
Del Mar Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (1 mile on turf, 5:00 p.m. ET)
#6 Caisson
It’s safe to say Caisson is bred to thrive on turf. A son of acclaimed sire War Front, who has sired a bevy of Grade 1 winners on the lawn, Caisson was produced by E. P. Taylor (G1) winner Curvy, a daughter of European superstar stallion Galileo. With this high-class pedigree in tow, Caisson understandably sold for $340,000 as a yearling, and her morning workouts hint she may have been a bargain at that price. Under the care of high-percentage trainer Richard Mandella (a 22% winner this year), Caisson has flashed some serious speed, clocking a bullet half-mile in :47 2/5 on June 5 and a bullet six furlongs in 1:13 flat on July 16. With Del Mar’s reigning champion summer meet jockey Flavien Prat aboard, Caisson figures to receive plenty of support in the wagering.