Prospect Watch: Frosteria could graduate for Baffert, Godolphin
The Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland is, of course, the highlight of the upcoming racing week, but you can bet that hardcore racing fans will keep an eye on Del Mar and Churchill Downs as well.
After all, the two tracks have assembled excellent weekend cards, with several competitive maiden races for 2-year-olds on the agenda. Let’s review four promising prospects with a chance to enter the spotlight on Saturday and Sunday:
Saturday, Nov. 7
Del Mar Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 furlongs, 5:30 p.m. ET)
#2 Frosteria
A Godolphin homebred conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, Frosteria showed promise in her debut, dashing 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita. Sent off as the 5-2 second choice behind stablemate Private Mission, Frosteria wasn’t quite up to beating her barnmate, but she did rally nicely from a tracking position to finish second by 1 3/4 lengths.
Frosteria pulled 6 3/4 lengths clear of the rest, and the winning time of 1:16.82 produced respectable speed figures. Frosteria herself received an encouraging 88 Brisnet Speed rating, and after working a bullet half-mile in :47 2/5 on Oct. 29, she’s clearly the filly to beat on Saturday.
Sunday, Nov. 8
Churchill Downs Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (7 furlongs, 1:30 p.m. ET)
#7 Ginkgo
If Ginkgo’s pedigree is any indication, she’s destined to be a speedy sort. A daughter of champion sprinter Runhappy, Ginkgo was produced by the Seeking the Gold mare Enth, previously dam of the stakes-winning sprinters Sower and Vast.
Despite the abundance of speed in Ginkgo’s pedigree, she isn’t necessarily going to be a win-early type. Runhappy didn’t peak until his 3-year-old year, and trainer Kenny McPeek strikes at just a 7% rate with first-time starters, so Ginkgo figures to improve with experience and maturity.
But on the bright side, McPeek has gone 8 for 38 (21%) to start the Churchill Downs meet, and Ginkgo has flashed meaningful speed during morning workouts. Perhaps this $225,000 yearling purchase will outrun expectations on debut, with better to come down the road.
Churchill Downs Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (1 mile on turf, 3:36 p.m. ET)
#3 Fulsome
A Juddmonte Farms homebred conditioned by high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, Fulsome has put together a steady string of half-mile and 5-furlong workouts in preparation for his debut. A son of leading sire Into Mischief out of a Distorted Humor mare, Fulsome brings high-class bloodlines to the equation, but he isn’t necessarily bred to be a turf star. While his pedigree is reasonably slanted toward success on the lawn, Into Mischief is best known as a sire of top-class dirt horses, and dam Flourish won races on both surfaces.
In short, it’s easy to conclude Fulsome is capable of excelling over multiple surfaces. Whether he wins or loses on Saturday (with hot jockey Florent Geroux aboard, a win is certainly within reach), Fulsome should have plenty of options down the road.
It’s easy to see why trainer Brendan Walsh has chosen to debut Halfbarberbingie on turf. From a pedigree perspective, the $250,000 yearling acquisition is bred to relish the lawn. A son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who is siring high-class turf horses left and right, Halfbarberbingie was produced by the Discreet Cat mare Topic, a Grade 1-placed turfer who romped in the CTT and Thoroughbred Owners of California Handicap, racing 1 3/8 miles on grass.
Walsh strikes at just an 8% rate with first-time starters, so Halfbarberbinger probably won’t be cranked for a peak effort on debut. But hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione (a 20% winner at Churchill Downs) takes the mount, stamping Halfbarberbinger as one to watch for the future.