Prospect Watch: Deterministic, Test Score siblings debut on turf

This week's Prospect Watch features an exceptional collection of young horses making their debuts or early career starts, highlighted by siblings to Grade 1 winners and horses from champion producing families. The week is anchored by 31 first-time starters with elite bloodlines.

Gun Runner's influence continues to grow with multiple offspring making their debuts, including Arabia Wild, the half-brother to Grade 2 winner Protonico, and Spice Runner, who makes his third start in the Ellis Park Juvenile. Meanwhile, Grade 1-winning connections shine through debuts like Screen Test, half-sister to Belmont Derby (G1) winner Test Score; Morana, half-sister to Fourstardave (G1) winner Deterministic; and Flower Stone, half-sister to Breeders' Cup Classic winner White Abarrio.

Tuesday

Arabia Wild makes his debut at Horseshoe Indiana in race 1, a one-mile dirt maiden special weight featuring seven runners. This 2-year-old colt by Gun Runner represents the Brad Cox stable and carries impressive family credentials through his half-brother Protonico, a Grade 2 winner who earned nearly $1 million and sired Awesome Again (G1) winner Medina Spirit. The morning line has him at 4-1 odds, suggesting connections believe he possesses the ability to compete immediately. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. takes the mount for owner Sumaya U.S. Stable.

Wednesday

Screen Test debuts at Colonial Downs in race 5, going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf in a competitive maiden special weight field with 12 in the main field plus two also-eligible entrants. This 2-year-old filly by blazing-hot sire Not This Time brings exceptional family credentials as the half-sister to Grade 1 winner Test Score, who has earned over $1.1 million. The Graham Motion trainee draws post 12 in the large field, with Jorge Ruiz aboard at 6-1 morning line odds. She's a homebred for Mrs. Jerry Amerman and Amerman Racing, just like Test Score.

Bullfight also debuts Wednesday at Horseshoe Indiana in race 6, tackling 7 1/2 furlongs on turf in a 12-horse maiden special weight. This 2-year-old colt by Raging Bull brings Grade 2 connections through his half-brother Andthewinneris, who earned over $500,000. Trainer Cherie DeVaux sends him out from the rail with Adam Beschizza riding at 4-1 morning line odds for the partnership of West Point Thoroughbreds and Elements Racing.

Thursday

Morana is entered for her first career start at Horseshoe Indiana in race 5, a five-furlong maiden special weight on turf, with 10 in the main field plus five also-eligibles. This 3-year-old filly by Frosted carries outstanding family credentials as the half-sister to Grade 1 winner Deterministic, who just won the Fourstardave Saturday and has earned nearly $2 million. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has her ready for this turf debut if it happens, with Adam Beschizza in the irons, though Morana is four deep on the also-eligible list and will need some scratches to get in. She's a homebred for Hinkle Farms, demonstrating the operation's commitment to this bloodline.

Friday

Silvadar debuts at Monmouth Park in race 4, facing six opponents in a five-furlong dirt maiden special weight. This 2-year-old colt by freshman sire Silver State brings Grade 1 family credentials through his half-sister Chocolate Gelato, winner of the Frizette (G1). Richard Dutrow Jr. trains the colt for FMQ Stables, with Samy Camacho taking the riding assignment from post 6. The Vincent Colbert-bred colt represents solid breeding despite his sire's smaller profile.

Saturday

Sina returns for her second start at Delaware Park in race 4, stretching out to six furlongs on dirt after a promising debut effort. This 2-year-old filly by Gun Runner finished second, beaten three lengths in her June 27 debut at Churchill Downs while earning an 88 HRN speed figure. She's the half-sister to Grade 1 winner Alva Starr, who earned over $1 million. Brett Brinkman trains the homebred filly for P. Dale Ladner, with Jaime Rodriguez aboard from post 6 in the seven-horse field.

Fancy Footwork makes her second start at Saratoga in race 3, stretching out to 1 1/16 miles after sprinting her July 12 debut. This 2-year-old filly by Curlin showed ability in her first start, earning an 87 HRN speed figure while beaten 8 3/4 lengths. She's out of Grade 1 winner Tara's Tango and represents the powerful combination of trainer Amelia Green and jockey John Velazquez. She is entered for main track only, so will only run if the race is moved from turf to dirt.

Sunday

Flower Stone makes her debut at Ellis Park in race 1, going seven furlongs on dirt in a nine-horse maiden special weight. This 2-year-old filly by leading freshman sire Yaupon carries exceptional family credentials as the half-sister to Grade 1 winner White Abarrio, who earned over $7 million including victories in the Pegasus World Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic. Steve Asmussen trains the Spendthrift Farm homebred, with Keith Asmussen taking the mount from post 5. The combination of champion breeding and elite connections makes this one of the week's most anticipated debuts.

Spice Runner gets his third career start in stakes company at Ellis Park in race 6, the seven-furlong Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes. This 2-year-old colt by Gun Runner brings Grade 1 family credentials through his full brother Gunite, who earned nearly $2.5 million. His last start came in the Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs, where he finished fifth behind Romeo. Steve Asmussen trains the Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred, with Keith Asmussen riding from post 5 in the six-horse field. The family connection to Gunite suggests significant potential, and he still has upside to improve in just his third start.

Prospect Watch entries

Legend:

Div: Age and sex. 2F for 2-year-old fillies, 2M for 2-year-old males (colts/geldings), etc.

Top sibling (highest graded stakes): The sibling with the highest level of graded stakes won (G1, G2, G3) followed by the most money won if two siblings are at the same level. 

Bolded names are mentioned in the article.