Prospect Watch: Classics winners' progeny debut
From a graded stakes perspective, the post-Breeders’ Cup weekend is shaping up to be a quiet one on the North American racing front.
But a handful of high-quality maiden races for 2-year-olds will fill the void, providing fans with an opportunity to see future Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks contenders in action.
Let’s highlight a half-dozen promising first-time starters worth following:
Friday, Nov. 13
Churchill Downs Race 10: Maiden Special Weight (6 furlong, 5:36 p.m. ET)
#8 Gagetown
It’s safe to say Gagetown has the pedigree to be a Grade 1 winner. A son of 2016 Preakness (G1) champion Exaggerator, Gagetown was produced by the Eltish mare Betty’s Solutions, previously the dam of Mother Goose (G1) winner and Kentucky Oaks starter Include Betty.
Conditioned by hot trainer Brad Cox, Gagetown has flashed speed in the mornings, most recently cranking out 5 furlongs in :59 4/5 at Ellis Park. Cox trainees often show improvement second time out, so we might not see Gagetown’s absolute best on debut. But with hot jockey Florent Geroux in the saddle, Gagetown certainly has the potential to vie for victory.
Saturday, Nov. 14
Aqueduct Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 12:50 p.m. ET)
A son of Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Blame, whose foals win at a 15% rate on turf, Proven Innocent was produced by the A.P. Indy mare Meghan’s Joy, already the dam of six stakes winners from 10 foals. Considering four of the six achieved their signature victories on grass, including the multiple Grade 1-placed Ironicus, it’s clear that Proven Innocent has the pedigree to thrive over the Aqueduct turf course.
Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey has been hot this year and wins at a solid 14% clip with runners debuting on grass, so although Proven Innocent’s work tab looks light at first glance, it’s reasonable to assume he’ll fire a decent effort first-time out and improve down the road.
Aqueduct Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (7 furlongs, 1:45 p.m. ET)
#1 Dynamic One
Sold for a hefty $725,000 as a yearling, Dynamic One is a son of Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags out of the Smart Strike mare Beat the Drums, herself produced by champion 2-year-old filly Storm Flag Flying.
Trained by Todd Pletcher (who’s gone 5-for-9 to start the Aqueduct meet), Dynamic One has been posting sharp workouts at Belmont Park, including a bullet 5 furlongs from the starting gate in :59 2/5. Two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz takes the mount, suggesting Dynamic One has a big chance to factor on debut.
Sprinting on dirt as a juvenile is unlikely to be Wolfie’s Dynaghost’s best ballgame. Not only is the bay colt a son of late-maturing Horse of the Year Ghostzapper (whose progeny tend to improve with age), he was produced by the stoutly bred Dynaformer mare Dynaire, best known as the dam of durable long-distance turf star Sadler’s Joy. Throw in the fact trainer Tom Albertrani strikes at just a 6% rate with first-time starters, and it seems Wolfie’s Dynaghost — although promising from a pedigree standpoint — will likely show his best as an older runner.
#12 Unbridled Honor
The second Todd Pletcher trainee boasts a solid work tab similar to that of Dynamic One, suggesting the two colts have been working in company. A son of champion Honor Code out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, Unbridled Honor hails from a productive family — his dam, Silvery Starlet, is a half-sister to Haskell (G1) winner Roman Ruler and Cigar Mile (G1) winner El Corredor. With so many classy bloodlines in the mix, Unbridled Honor looks like a live contender for the 2021 classics, and I’m excited to see what this Whisper Hill Farm homebred can achieve on Saturday.
Churchill Downs Race 11: Maiden Special Weight (1 mile, 6:06 p.m. ET)
A Charles Fipke homebred, D’oro Forever is a daughter of stamina influence Medaglia d’Oro (the sire of 2009 Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra) out of Lemons Forever, winner of the 2006 Kentucky Oaks and herself a daughter of Belmont Stakes champion Lemon Drop Kid. Though Lemons Forever was a serious racemare, she’s arguably been even more successful as a broodmare, foaling Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) winner Forever Unbridled and Ballerina (G1) winner Unbridled Forever —both of them participants in the Kentucky Oaks.
In short, D’oro Forever’s pedigree is packed with Grade 1 class and two-turn stamina. If she follows the examples set by her immediate relatives, a start in the 2021 Kentucky Oaks is surely on the horizon for this Dallas Stewart trainee.