Prospect Watch: 6 promising juveniles debut at Keeneland
The Keeneland fall meet continues with several deep maiden special weights for 2-year-olds on the agenda. Expected starters include a half-brother to Kentucky Derby runner-up Commanding Curve. Let’s highlight half a dozen first-time starters slated to debut over the next week.
Friday
Keeneland race 8: Maiden special weight (1 1/16 miles, 4:44 p.m. EDT)
No. 3 Mother Freedom
2-year-old filly
Pedigree: West Coast–Mother, by Lion Hearted
Purchase price: N/A
Trainer: Sarah Hamilton
A daughter of 2017 champion 3-year-old male West Coast, Mother Freedom is slated to become the seventh starter produced by Mother, whose previous foals include 2014 Kentucky Derby runner-up Commanding Curve and the multiple Grade 1-placed sprinter/miler Mother Mother. Trainer Sarah Hamilton doesn’t win often with first-time starters, but Mother Freedom is worth following in the long run based on her classy pedigree.
Sunday
Keeneland race 6: Maiden special weight (seven furlongs, 3:40 p.m.)
No. 7 Shiloh’s Mistress
2-year-old filly
Pedigree: Vino Rosso–Ahh, by Saint Liam
Purchase price: $235,000
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
A daughter of champion and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso, Shiloh’s Mistress was produced by Ahh, the dam of Falls City Handicap (G2) and Allaire DuPont Distaff (G3) winner Ahh Chocolate. Trainer Michael McCarthy is winning at a 20 percent rate with first-time starters this year, and a fast five-furlong workout in 1:00.6 on Oct. 5 at Churchill Downs suggests Shiloh’s Mistress has talent. She’s eligible to factor under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.
No. 9 Happy Talk
2-year-old filly
Pedigree: Arrogate–Chattertown, by Speightstown
Purchase price: $175,000
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
There’s a lot to like about the pedigree of Happy Talk. She’s a daughter of champion and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Arrogate out of Chattertown, the dam of Jim Dandy (G2) winner Laoban. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas trained Arrogate’s Kentucky Oaks (G1)-winning daughter Secret Oath and likewise conditions Happy Talk, who blazed five furlongs in a bullet 58.6 seconds on Oct. 1 at Churchill Downs. Don’t be surprised if Happy Talk springs a mild upset for Lukas, who in 2023 has saddled multiple winning first-time starters in a single year for the first time since 2014.
Wednesday
Keeneland race 5: Maiden special weight (seven furlongs, 3:08 p.m.)
No. 4 Popweiser
2-year-old colt
Pedigree: Nyquist–Co Cola, by Candy Ride
Purchase price: $100,000
Trainer: Wayne Catalano
Popweiser brings a classy pedigree to his debut. He’s a son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of Co Cola, the dam of Acorn (G1) winner and Kentucky Oaks (G1) runner-up Search Results. Popweiser has turned in a series of fast workouts at Keeneland (including five furlongs from the starting gate in 59.2 seconds) and shouldn’t be underestimated in his first run under colors.
No. 7 So Smooth
2-year-old colt
Pedigree: Curlin–Spanish Harlem, by More Than Ready
Purchase price: $200,000
Trainer: Chad Brown
$200,000 yearling acquisition So Smooth is a son of two-time horse of the year Curlin out of Spanish Harlem, winner of the Barely Even racing one mile over the Gulfstream Park dirt. There’s both speed and stamina in this promising pedigree, so keep an eye on So Smooth, who breezed five furlong in a solid 1:01 seconds at Churchill Downs last month.
No. 9 It’smyluckytime
2-year-old colt
Pedigree: Not This Time–Luckycall, by Itsmyluckyday
Purchase price: $450,000
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Not This Time sires 20 percent winners from first-time starters, according to Brisnet stats, and that bodes well for It’smyluckytime. Sold for $450,000 as a yearling, the chestnut colt has put together a solid work tab highlighted by half a mile from the Churchill Downs starting gate in 48.4 seconds. Pletcher has gone 3-for-8 (38 percent) debuting juveniles at Keeneland since 2018, so don’t count It’smyluckytime out of the mix.