Prospect Watch: 9 impressive first-timers at 3 tracks
The numerous qualifiers on the road to Kentucky Derby 2023 taking place this week are supported by a bevy of high-quality maiden special weights for 3-year-olds.
Well-bred and expensive youngsters dot the entries. Among the most exciting is a half-brother to Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit who sold for $1.1 million at auction last year.
The fields are so deep, I can’t help but analyze nine first-timer starters in this week’s edition of Prospect Watch.
Thursday
Fair Grounds race 8: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 5:45 p.m. EST)
No. 1 Gun Collector
3-year-old colt
Pedigree: Gun Runner–Wembley, by Bernardini
Purchase price: $550,000
Trainer: Michael Stidham
Sold for more than half a million dollars as a yearling, Gun Collector boasts a classy pedigree to match his price tag. The son of 2017 horse of the year and hot young sire Gun Runner was produced by Wembley, a daughter of champion and Preakness winner Bernardini. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. and trainer Michael Stidham are both winning more than 20 percent of the time at Fair Grounds this meet, so don’t count Gun Collector out of the mix.
No. 2 Wicked Again
3-year-old colt
Pedigree: Gun Runner–Just Wicked, by Tapit
Purchase price: N/A
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen is thoroughly familiar with the pedigree of Wicked Again. He trained Gun Runner. He trained Just Wicked, winner of the Adirondack (G2). And he trains Wicked Again’s full-sister Wicked Halo, a three-time Grade 2 winner who finished third in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Wicked Again has been training fast at Fair Grounds and has hot jockey Reylu Gutierrez named to ride, so this gray colt might be a good one.
No. 4 Billy Jack
3-year-old colt
Pedigree: Uncle Mo–C. S. Royce, by Unbridled’s Song
Purchase price: $75,000
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Billy Jack has been training up a storm at Fair Grounds in recent weeks. Half a mile from the starting gate in 47.8 seconds on Feb. 1… the same conditions in 48.4 seconds on Feb. 8… a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.4 on Feb. 14… followed by an identical bullet exercise on Feb. 21. A son of champion juvenile and successful sire Uncle Mo out of C. S. Royce (the dam of Preakness runner-up Cherry Wine plus stakes winners Sweeping Paddy and C. S. Incharge), Billy Jack is bred like a star and looks ready to challenge on debut.
No. 5 Squire Creek
3-year-old colt
Pedigree: Uncle Mo–Covenant, by Speightstown
Purchase price: $525,000
Trainer: Brad Cox
Uncle Mo and Speightstown both sire 15 percent debut winners, according to Brisnet stats, so Squire Creek has the pedigree to factor right out of the gate. He’s turned in three consecutive five-furlong workouts at Fair Grounds in 1:00.6, and red-hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 34 percent winner at Fair Grounds) is in the saddle for similarly hot trainer Brad Cox. All signs suggest a competitive performance is in the offing for Squire Creek.
Saturday
Gulfstream Park race 4: Maiden special weight (seven furlongs, 12:27 p.m.)
No. 5 Scotland
3-year-old colt
Pedigree: Good Magic–Gemswick Park, by Speightstown
Purchase price: N/A
Trainer: Bill Mott
A son of champion juvenile Good Magic out of Old Hat (G3) winner Gemswick Park, Scotland has turned in several bullet workouts over the slow track at Payson Park, highlighted by five furlongs from the starting gate in 1:01.4. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott isn’t a frequent winner with first-time starters, striking only 8 percent of the time since 2000, but Scotland looks ready for a strong run. The fact Good Magic sires a solid 16 percent winners from first-time starters is encouraging.
No. 10 Illustrated
3-year-old colt
Pedigree: Justify–Appealing Zophie, by Successful Appeal
Purchase price: $1.1 million
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
One of the best-bred runners debuting this week is Illustrated, who sold for $1.1 million as a 2-year-old in training. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify was produced by Appealing Zophie, whose previous foals include Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit and the multiple graded-stakes winner Ride a Comet. Illustrated enters off consecutive bullet workouts at Palm Beach Downs (including a half-mile from the starting gate in 48.8 seconds) and is nominated to the Triple Crown, so expectations are surely high for this bay colt.
Fair Grounds race 7: Maiden special weight (one mile and 70 yards, 5:15 p.m.)
No. 3 Rule Breaker
3-year-old colt
Pedigree: Into Mischief–Artemis Agrotera, by Roman Ruler
Purchase price: $1 million
Trainer: Brad Cox
Illustrated isn’t the only seven-figure auction acquisition debuting this week. Rule Breaker sold for $1 million as a 2-year-old in training, at least in part because he’s a son of four-time leading North American sire Into Mischief out of Frizette (G1) and Ballerina (G1) winner Artemis Agrotera, previously the dam of Saratoga’s Albany winner Chestertown. Rule Breaker is nominated to the Triple Crown and has shown speed in the mornings for ultra-hot trainer Brad Cox (a 41 percent winner at Fair Grounds this meet), so a winning debut could be on the horizon.
No. 6 Gatlinburg
3-year-old colt
Pedigree: Malibu Moon–My Sugar Bear, by Giant’s Causeway
Purchase price: $290,000
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Malibu Moon is the sire of Kentucky Derby winner Orb, and My Sugar Bear is the dam of San Marcos (G2) winner Friar's Road, so there’s quite a bit of class in the pedigree of Gatlinburg. He breezed a quick five furlongs from the Fair Grounds starting gate in 1:00.8 last month and is worth watching on Saturday, though Brisnet stats indicate trainer Steve Asmussen wins only 9 percent of the time when debuting horses over one mile or farther.
Oaklawn Park race 10: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 6:25 p.m.)
No. 7 Huntsville
3-year-old colt
Pedigree: Violence–Juanita, by Mineshaft
Purchase price: $45,000
Trainer: Brad Cox
It’s a little surprising that Huntsville sold for only $45,000 as a yearling, considering sire Violence won the CashCall Futurity (G1) and dam Juanita (a daughter of 2003 horse of the year Mineshaft) won the Indiana Oaks (G2) and La Troienne (G2) during an accomplished career. Perhaps Huntsville will turn out to be a bargain; he’s shown speed in the mornings at Oaklawn (clocking five furlongs from the starting gate in 1:00.8) and has Brad Cox in his corner, so there’s plenty to like about his chances.