Prospect Watch: 6 well-bred juveniles debut this week
Question: What do Beholder, Into Mischief and Mendelssohn have in common?
Answer: They all were produced by the broodmare Leslie’s Lady, and they all are half-siblings to an unraced 2-year-old slated to debut at Keeneland this week.
Let’s take a quick break from examining the Breeders’ Cup pre-entries and highlight half a dozen of the best-bred juveniles in the entries over the next two days:
Thursday
Keeneland Race 5: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 3:08 p.m. EDT)
No. 4 Marr Time
Pedigree: Not This Time–Leslie’s Lady, by Tricky Creek
Purchase price: N/A
Trainer: Brad Cox
Of all the juveniles debuting this week, the best-bred prospect has to be Marr Time. A daughter of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up and hot young sire Not This Time, Marr Time was produced by the Tricky Creek mare Leslie’s Lady. As noted above, Leslie's Lady is the dam of two-time leading sire Into Mischief, four-time Eclipse Award winner Beholder, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) hero Mendelssohn.
This is an indisputably stellar pedigree, and Marr Time appears to be living up to her lofty lineage. The bay filly has been training fast on the Kentucky circuit, most notably breezing a bullet five furlongs from the Keeneland starting gate in 59.4 seconds. Marr Time might need to get a race under her belt before hitting peak form (Cox trainees often improve second time out), but then again, Marr Time might have the speed and talent to win with something less than her absolute best.
Keeneland Race 7: Maiden special weight (seven furlongs, 4:12 p.m.)
No. 5 Mistical Curlin
Pedigree: Curlin–Mistical Plan, by Game Plan
Purchase price: $375,000
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Did you know Mistical Curlin is a son of a Grade 1 winner out of a Grade 1 winner? Sire Curlin was a two-time Horse of the Year who counted the Preakness among his signature victories, while dam Mistical Plan was quick enough to win the Princess Rooney Handicap (G1) sprinting six furlongs.
Both Curlin and Mistical Plan peaked as older horses, so Mistical Curlin is unlikely to be an early-maturing sort. Plus, trainer Kenny McPeek isn’t known for cranking his runners to win on debut, so Mistical Curlin surely will benefit from Thursday’s run. But regardless of how Mistical Curlin performs in his first start, he looks like one to follow in the long term.
No. 10 Magazine Street
Pedigree: Gun Runner–Remit, by Tapit
Purchase price: N/A
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
It is safe to say Steve Asmussen is familiar with Magazine Street’s immediate family. Not only did Asmussen trainer Gun Runner (the 2017 Horse of the Year) and Remit (a two-time stakes winner), he also conditioned Magazine Street’s half-siblings Finite (a three-time graded stakes winner) and Reride (a two-time stakes winner).
Every horse I just listed did their best work over one mile or farther, so Magazine Street is bred top and bottom to thrive running long. Thursday’s seven-furlong spring might be a bit short for the chestnut colt, though the fact that Gun Runner sires 32 percent winners from first-time starters is encouraging. A respectable effort should be in the offing.
Friday
Belmont Park Race 6: Maiden special weight (6 1/2 furlongs, 3:15 p.m.)
No. 3 Union Lights
Pedigree: Union Rags–By the Light, by Malibu Moon
Purchase price: N/A
Trainer: Michelle Nevin
A son of Belmont Stakes hero Union Rags, Union Lights hails from a productive female family. The bay colt is a son of nine-time stakes winner By the Light, who previously foaled the multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter/miler By the Moon.
Union Lights has put together an encouraging work tab in preparation for his debut, including a bullet half-mile in 47 seconds at Belmont Park last week. Don’t be surprised if this well-bred colt outruns his 8-1 morning-line odds.
No. 4 Red Line Overdrive
Pedigree: Nyquist–Spirit of the Dawn, by Malibu Moon
Purchase price: $900,000
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
One of the priciest youngsters in the entries this week is Red Line Overdrive, who sold for $900,000 earlier this year. The son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist has since put together a lengthy work tab on the New York circuit, capped off by four furlongs from the Saratoga training track starting gate in 48.4 seconds.
Red Line Overdrive’s dam, Spirit of the Dawn, failed to place from two starts. But she hails from a productive family, with General George Handicap (G3) winner Javerre among her siblings. Nyquist was an early-maturing sort who sires 14 percent winners from first-time starters, so if all the elements of Red Line Overdrive’s pedigree come together in the right way, he can challenge for victory on debut.
No. 6 Dads Good Runner
Pedigree: Gun Runner–Seeking the Silver, by Grindstone
Purchase price: N/A
Trainer: Michelle Nevin
Let’s see … Gun Runner is a Horse of the Year who sires 32 percent winners from first-time starters, and Seeking the Silver is an accomplished broodmare who previously produced the multiple Grade 1-winning sprinters Dads Cap and Paulassilverlining. That’s a pretty flashy pedigree, right?
Whether Dads Good Runner’s elite breeding can translate into victory on debut is another question; his work tab looks a little light, and trainer Michelle Nevin strikes at only a 10 percent rate with first-time starters, below her overall 17 percent win rate. But based on his pedigree, we can’t recommend counting Dads Good Runner out of the mix, at least not in the long term.