Prospect Watch: 3 to see at Churchill Downs, 2 at Aqueduct
As we cross into the second half of November, with barely more than six weeks remaining in the year, well-bred 2-year-olds are continuing to debut with frequency at racetracks across the country.
Let’s highlight five of the most exciting newcomers in the entries this week:
Friday, Nov. 19
Churchill Downs Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs, 4:06 p.m. EST)
No. 10 Rocket Dawg
Pedigree: Classic Empire–Rever de Vous, by Distorted Humor
Purchase price: $375,000
Trainer: Brad Cox
A son of champion juvenile Classic Empire (who sires 28 percent winners from first-time starters), Rocket Dawg hails from the barn of Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox. While Cox’s typically lofty win percentage drops to “only” 15 percent with first-time starters (since 2020), Rocket Dawg’s workouts—including five furlongs in 1:00.4 seconds at Churchill Downs last month—suggest Rocket Dawg can produce a strong showing in his first run under colors.
Indeed, there are plenty of positive signs for Rocket Dawg. Dam Rever de Vous was a debut-winning juvenile who placed in a stakes on Jan. 1 of her sophomore season, and as a broodmare, she’s foaled three winners from three starters. Add in jockey Florent Geroux (a 22 percent winner when teaming up with Cox over the last two months), and Rocket Dawg warrants ample respect.
Saturday, Nov. 20
Aqueduct Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs, 2:43 p.m.)
No. 10 Never Change
Pedigree: Uncle Mo–Danette, by Curlin
Purchase price: Not available
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
The first of two Todd Pletcher-trained colts entered in this maiden dash for juveniles, Never Change is a son of juvenile champion and successful sire Uncle Mo out of Danette, a daughter of two-time Horse of the Year and noted stamina influence Curlin. Danette was good enough to place third in the Chandelier as a juvenile, so any way you slice it, Never Change has the pedigree to be a Kentucky Derby type.
Never Change has put together a lengthy work tab at Belmont Park in preparation for his debut, culminating with five furlongs from the starting gate in 1:01.8 seconds. The Repole Stable homebred is well worth following, and a victory on Saturday could potentially launch him on to the Triple Crown trail.
No. 13 Outperform
Pedigree: Gun Runner–Terrific Treasure, by Street Cry
Purchase price: Not available
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
The second Pletcher trainee is on the also-eligible list, but if a scratch allows him to start, he’ll be a key contender for victory. A son of hot young sire Gun Runner (who sires 32 percent winners from first-time starters), Outperform was produced by the Street Cry mare Terrific Treasure, which gives Outperform a pedigree geared toward success over classic distances.
A Repole Stable homebred, Outperform has been cranking out sharp workouts at Saratoga and Belmont. Several of his breezes have been bullet moves, including five furlongs from the Belmont starting gate in 1:00.2 seconds last Saturday. Throw in the presence of hot jockey Irad Ortiz (a 30 percent winner at Aqueduct this meet), and Outperform appears primed for a competitive effort on debut.
Churchill Downs Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 4:06 p.m.)
No. 5 La Crete
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro–Cavorting, by Bernardini
Purchase price: Not available
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Talk about a well-bred filly, La Crete is a daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner and elite sire Medaglia d’Oro out of the Bernardini mare Cavorting, a three-time Grade 1 winner over distances ranging from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. And in case you’ve forgotten, Cavorting’s first foal—Clairiere—won the Cotillion (G1) a couple months ago.
With this stamina-oriented pedigree in tow, it’s easy to see why La Crete is starting her career over 1 1/16 miles. Steve Asmussen isn’t a frequent winner with horses debuting in routes (striking at just a nine percent rate), but hot jockey Joel Rosario is slated to ride the Stonestreet Stables homebred, suggesting La Crete is held in high regard. Take note, Rosario and Asmussen have gone 5-for-15 (33 percent) teaming up together over the last two months.
Churchill Downs Race 11: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs, 6:06 p.m.)
No. 4 Run the Tap
Pedigree: Gun Runner–Hightap, by Tapit
Purchase price: $210,000
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Hailing from the barn of hot trainer Kenny McPeek, Run the Tap is bred to be an elite racehorse. Sire Gun Runner is off to a terrific start at stud (siring 32 percent winners from first-time starters, as mentioned previously), while dam Hightap (a two-time Grade 3 winner) has already achieved renown as the dam of Fourstardave Handicap (G1) winner Halladay.
Run the Tap might need some racing experience before she finds her best stride, considering McPeek wins at just a 6 percent rate with first-time starters. But once she gets a race or two under her belt, watch out—Run the Tap has the pedigree to develop into a Kentucky Oaks contender.