Prospect Watch: 5 new juveniles to follow at Churchill
Another busy week of racing is on the agenda at Churchill Downs. Saturday’s Winning Colors (G3) and Keertana Stakes rank as the highlights, but there are also a couple of competitive dirt maiden races for 2-year-olds on the slate.
Could we see future Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks contenders in action? You never know, so let’s dig into the entries and review five promising first-time starters:
Thursday
Churchill Downs Race 1: Maiden special weight for 2-year-old fillies (5 furlongs, 5:00 p.m. EDT)
#6 Bali Kuta
Bali Kuta is the second starter sired by Bal a Bali, the Brazilian Triple Crown winner who recovered from laminitis to win multiple Grade 1 turf miles in the U.S. Bal a Bali’s first starter, Tapit Doux, broke her maiden on Tuesday.
But Bal a Bali isn’t the only accomplished name in Bali Kuta’s pedigree. Her dam, the Sligo Bay mare Paladin Bay, matured early enough to win the Princess Elizabeth Stakes as a juvenile and later added the Selene (G3) to her accomplished resume. Considering this classy pedigree, it’s a little surprising that Bali Kuta sold for only $7,000 as a yearling.
With seven timed workouts under her belt, including a couple of half-mile gate moves, Bali Kuta has the potential to outrun expectations on debut.
#8 Gimmick
Purchased for $450,000 as a yearling, Gimmick is a daughter of two-time leading sire Into Mischief out of the Speightstown mare Quick Flip, winner of the Sandpiper Stakes dashing six furlongs as a juvenile. This is a pedigree geared sharply toward speed, and since Into Mischief and Speightstown both sire 16 percent debut winners, Gimmick definitely has the breeding to be an early-maturing sort.
Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Gimmick has shown speed in the mornings at Keeneland, most notably breezing a couple half miles from the starting gate in :47 2/5 and :47 3/5. With hot jockey Ricardo Santana in the saddle, Gimmick is a logical favorite to make her first start under colors a winning one.
Saturday
Churchill Downs Race 1: Maiden special weight for 2-year-olds (5 furlongs, 6:00 p.m. EDT)
#3 Detroit City
A son of Florida Derby (G1) winner and capable sire Dialed In, Detroit City was produced by the Elusive Quaity mare Quality Lass, a versatile sprinter who won stakes on both turf and synthetic surfaces.
A Calumet Farm homebred trained by Jack Sisterson, Detroit City is the only January foal in Saturday’s field, so the chestnut colt might have a maturity advantage over his younger rivals. He already has shown meaningful speed during morning training, cranking out a swift half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :47 1/5, so don’t be surprised if Detroit City factors at a fair price under jockey Tyler Gaffalione.
#4 Lansdowne
Although Lansdowne sold for only $52,000 as a yearling, the gray colt is one of the best-bred youngsters in Saturday’s field. A son of 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, Lansdowne is the seventh starter produced by Citiview, a Citidance mare who previously foaled Acorn (G1) and Humana Distaff (G1) winner Midnight Lucky.
Trainer Dallas Stewart already has won one juvenile race at Churchill Downs this spring, saddling first-time starter Seize the Night to spring a 13-1 surprise last Friday. Perhaps Landsdowne can post a similar upset on Saturday – he breezed a sharp half mile from the Churchill Downs starting gate in :47 4/5 last week, and Jon Court (who rode Seize the Night) has been assigned the mount.
Sire Unified won the Peter Pan (G2) and placed in the Carter Handicap (G1). Dam Promise Me a Cat won the Sweet Patootie Stakes as a juvenile and later placed in five other stakes. There’s certainly speed and class in Roger McQueen’s pedigree, which surely is one reason the Larry Rivelli trainee sold for $530,000 at the OBS 2021 March Sale of Two Year Olds in Training. The fact Roger McQueen blazed a quarter mile in :20 2/5 before the sale undoubtedly played a role as well.
Roger McQueen has continued to show serious speed during morning workouts, most recently clocking a bullet half mile in :47 4/5 at Arlington Park. Rivelli wins at a 29 percent rate with first-time starters, and Churchill’s leading jockey Florent Geroux is named to ride, so all the signs suggest Roger McQueen will be formidable on Saturday.