Prospect Watch: 4 to follow at Ellis and Los Alamitos
Racing at Churchill Downs and Santa Anita is on hiatus for the time being, but Ellis Park and Los Alamitos are taking up the slack on the Kentucky and California circuits.
Both tracks have carded intriguing maiden special weights for 2-year-olds on Friday, so let’s check out the fields and highlight four of the most interesting first-time starters.
Friday
Ellis Park Race 5: Maiden special weight (five furlongs, 3:42 p.m. EDT)
No. 2 Meraj
Age: 2
Pedigree: Army Mule–Star Pearl, by Tapit
Purchase price: $100,000
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Hailing from the first crop of foals sired by undefeated Carter Handicap (G1) winner Army Mule, Meraj was produced by the Tapit mare Star Pearl, a two-time stakes winner running long on dirt and Tapeta. This is a pedigree blending speed with stamina, so Meraj has the potential to excel over a variety of distances.
Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Meraj has been posting sharp workouts on the Kentucky circuit. Last month, he clocked half a mile from the Ellis Park starting gate in 47.6 seconds, then followed up with five furlongs in 1:00.4 seconds. It’s easy to see why Meraj is favored at 9-5 on the morning line to win his debut.
No. 7 Retained
Age: 2
Pedigree: Bayern–Rarities, by City Zip
Purchase price: N/A
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
In 2014, owner Kaleem Shah enjoyed a season of success with Bayern, who rattled off victories in the Haskell (G1), Pennsylvania Derby (G2) and Breeders’ Cup Classic. Perhaps Shah can enjoy a similarly strong run with Retained, a son of (you guessed it) Bayern.
Retained has shown promise in the mornings at Keeneland, wrapping up his pre-race preparations with a swift half-mile from the starting gate in 47.2 seconds. Bayern sires 18 percent winners from first-time starters, so don’t count Retained out of the mix.
Los Alamitos Race 5: Maiden special weight (five furlongs, 7:05 p.m.)
No. 1 Jin Tong
Age: 2
Pedigree: Goldencents–Ever Adored, by Forest Wildcat
Purchase price: $40,000
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jin Tong sold for just $40,000 as a weanling and doesn’t bring the flashiest pedigree to the table, though sire Goldencents was a brilliant two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner and dam sire Forest Wildcat won multiple Grade 3 sprints.
This is a pedigree packed with speed, and since Goldencents and Forest Wildcat each have sired 13 percent winners from first-time starters, Jin Tong is eligible to win from an early age for two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill. Jin Tong clocked a bullet half-mile from the San Luis Rey Training Center starting gate in 47.6 seconds last month, so don’t dismiss this Calumet Farm colorbearer from consideration.
No. 5 Happy Tears
Age: 2
Pedigree: Into Mischief–Watch Your Six, by Discreetly Mine
Purchase price: $160,000
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Could Happy Tears be something special? He certainly has been training fast in the mornings at Santa Anita. On June 19, he clocked half a mile in a bullet 47 seconds. On June 26, he traveled the same distance from the starting gate in 47.2 seconds. And last Sunday, he sped half a mile from the starting gate in a bullet 47 seconds.
Trainer Michael McCarthy wins at only an 8 percent rate with first-time starters, but Happy Tears is a son of three-time leading North American sire Into Mischief, whose progeny win at an excellent 16 percent rate on debut. Throw in hot jockey Diego Herrera (a 20 percent winner at Los Alamitos this meet), and Happy Tears has to rank among the favorites to win on Friday.