Prospect Watch: 4 juveniles to follow at Churchill Downs
Most handicappers this week are focusing their attention on Belmont Park, where a multitude of graded stakes highlighted by the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes will take place.
But we would be remiss for failing to highlight a pair of competitive maiden special weights for 2-year-olds at Churchill Downs on Friday. The fields are packed with promising first-time starters, so let’s take a look at four of the most interesting newcomers to know.
Churchill Downs Race 3: Maiden special weight (five furlongs, 1:43 p.m. EDT)
No. 2 Personal Pursuit
Age: 2
Pedigree: Tapit–Maddie’s Odyssey, by Kitten’s Joy
Purchase price: $500,000
Trainer: Mark Casse
It’s no wonder why Personal Pursuit sold for half a million dollars as a yearling. The gray filly is a daughter of three-time leading sire Tapit out of Maddie’s Odyssey, a daughter of two-time leading sire Kitten’s Joy. Maddie’s Odyssey placed against stakes company and has previously foaled All American (G3) winner Grecian Fire, Echo Eddie winner Smuggler’s Run, Great Lady M (G2) heroine Sneaking Out and multiple stakes winner Been Studying Her.
Can Personal Pursuit become the fifth stakes winner produced by Maddie’s Odyssey? It’s not out of the question. Personal Pursuit has been training with promise for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, most notably clocking a swift half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in 47.6 seconds. She looks like a promising filly.
No. 4 Rum Runner Ready
Age: 2
Pedigree: Gun Runner–Stormy Allure, by Stormy Atlantic
Purchase price: $135,000
Trainer: William Morey
Let’s see. Rum Runner Ready is a daughter of red-hot young stallion Gun Runner (who sires 24 percent winners from first-time starters) out of Stormy Allure, who has previously achieved renown as the dam of two-time Princess Rooney (G2) winner Stormy Embrace. It’s safe to say Rum Runner Ready is bred to be a high-class filly.
Rum Runner Ready has shown speed in the mornings at Churchill Downs, even turning in a couple of bullet three-furlong workouts. Morey wins at a 31 percent rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights, so don’t overlook Rum Runner Ready as a win contender.
Churchill Downs Race 6: Maiden special weight (five furlongs, 3:18 p.m.)
No. 1 Duplantis
Age: 2
Pedigree: Mastery–Gold Vault, by Arch
Purchase price: N/A
Trainer: Tom Drury
There’s a lot to like about the pedigree of Duplantis. Sire Mastery won the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) as a juvenile, and dam Gold Vault has achieved broodmare fame as the dam of Contested (winner of the Test, G1, and Acorn, G1) and Mosler (victorious in the Elusive Quality and Laurel Dash).
Duplantis doesn’t bring the flashiest work tab to the table, though it’s encouraging to note trainer Tom Drury wins at a lofty 21 percent rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights. There are enough positive signs here to suggest Duplantis can factor in his first run under colors.
No. 3 Macho Villa
Age: 2
Pedigree: Quality Road–Moonlit Promise, by Malibu Moon
Purchase price: $275,000
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas already has achieved one big win at Churchill Downs this spring, nabbing the Kentucky Oaks with Secret Oath. Who knows, perhaps Macho Villa can develop into Lukas’ next stakes star.
Certainly Macho Villa has the breeding to compete at a high level. Sire Quality Road won four Grade 1 races ranging in distance from one mile to 1 1/8 miles, and dam Moonlit Promise won the six-furlong Ontario Fashion (G3) plus two editions of the seven-furlong Bessarabian (G2).
Lukas rarely saddles winning first-time starters, but Macho Villa did breeze a bullet three furlongs from the Churchill starting gate in 36 seconds last month, so don’t be surprised if he shows a bit of speed on debut. In any case, he’s bred to improve with maturity, so keep an eye on Macho Villa in the long run.