Prospect Watch: Pletcher to debut son of California Chrome
Earlier this year, the exciting sprinter Volatile rattled off victories in the Aristides Stakes and Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) before retiring to stud with an injury. His career was short but meteoric, leaving racing fans to wonder what he would have accomplished if he had stayed sound.
Only time will tell whether Volatile’s younger half-brother Grendel can reach the same lofty heights, but we’ll get a better idea when the Steve Asmussen-trained 2-year-old debuts at Fair Grounds on Saturday.
For this week’s Prospect Watch, let’s review Grendel and five other promising unraced juveniles in the entries:
Saturday, Dec. 19
Aqueduct Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 furlongs, 1:45 p.m. ET)
Owned in partnership by Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable, Inspiration Point sold for $725,000 as a 2-year-old in training, and it’s easy to understand why. A son of two-time Horse of the Year California Chrome, Inspiration Point was produced by the unraced Unbridled’s Song mare Diva Style, a half-sister to Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tiz the Law.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Inspiration Point has shown potential in the mornings. On Dec. 9 he turned in a blazing workout over the typically slow training track at Belmont Park, clocking a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47.00 flat. With hot jockey Jose Ortiz named to ride, Inspiration Point warrants respect on debut. Stablemate (and apparent workmate) #3 Too Boss is another worth following.
Fair Grounds Race 12: Maiden Special Weight (6 furlongs, 6:21 p.m. ET)
#6 Military Bearing
Although Military Bearing seems unlikely to challenge for victory sprinting 6 furlongs on debut, he could develop into a capable classics contender for trainer Dallas Stewart. A son of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Empire Maker out of a mare by elite sire and stamina influence Smart Strike, Military Bearing is a half-brother to Cambodia, a four-time graded stakes winner running long on turf.
Despite the abundance of stamina in Military Bearing’s pedigree, the $275,000 yearling purchase has flashed tactical speed during morning workouts, most notably breezing a half-mile from the Fair Grounds starting gate in :47 3/5 on Dec. 6. Stewart strikes at just an 8 percent rate with first-time starters, so Military Bearing probably won’t be cranked for a peak effort on debut. But don’t be surprised if he outruns expectations, with better to come down the road.
#9 Prate
Fast workouts have been the norm rather than the exception for Prate, an exciting Juddmonte Farms homebred conditioned by ultra-hot trainer Brad Cox. Case in point: On Nov. 28 at Keeneland, Prate blazed a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :46 3/5.
A son of two-time leading sire Into Mischief, who sires a lofty 16 percent debut winners, Prate is bred for speed and should give a good account of himself on Saturday. Hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 22 percent winner at Fair Grounds) takes the mount, adding to the appeal.
#11 Grendel
Sold for just $35,000 as a yearling, Grendel surely would have brought a higher price if he’d sold after his half-brother Volatile posted a flashy win in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1). As it stands, Grendel looks like a bargain.
A son of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Bayern out of the stakes-winning Unbridled’s Song mare Melody Lane, Grendel is bred to run long at first glance. But Volatile was best as a sprinter, and Grendel’s half-sister Buy Sell Hold matured early enough to win the 5-furlong Kentucky Juvenile Stakes as a 2-year-old, so there’s plenty of speed in the mix as well.
That speed has been evident in Grendel’s morning workouts. Under the care of Steve Asmussen, Grendel has fired off a couple of bullet workouts at Fair Grounds over the last month, including a swift half-mile from the starting gate in :47 4/5 on Nov. 18. With Asmussen’s go-to jockey Ricardo Santana aboard, Grendel is a serious threat to win on debut.
Gulfstream Park Race 11: Maiden Special Weight (1 mile on turf, 5:14 p.m. ET)
#7 Advanced Placement
It’s easy to see why Advanced Placement is slated to debut on turf. A son of five-time Grade 1-winning turf router Point of Entry, Advanced Placement was produced by Miss Chapin, a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner Royal Academy. This makes Advanced Placement a full brother to Louisville (G3) winner Admission Office and a half-brother to Just a Game (G1) winner Coffee Clique, two runners who achieved their signature victories on grass. All told, six of Miss Chapin’s seven winning foals to date have won races on turf.
Since Advanced Placement is bred to improve with maturity, and since Brian Lynch strikes at only a 9 percent rate with first-time starters, it’s unlikely Advanced Placement will produce a peak effort in his first run under colors. But you can count on this bay colt to show improvement with time and experience.
Tampa Bay Downs Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 mile and 40 yards, 1:12 p.m. ET)
#2 New Dawn
Bred by WinStar Farm, owned by Godolphin, trained by Bill Mott — it’s safe to say New Dawn has high-profile connections in his corner. Sold for $600,000 as a yearling, the son of Medaglia d’Oro has the breeding to excel over the Tampa Bay Downs main track. After all, his dam is the Giant’s Causeway mare Wait Til Dawn, winner of the 2012 Suncoast Stakes racing 1 mile and 40 yards at Tampa.
Although New Dawn’s work tab isn’t overly eye-catching at first glance, he’s breezed 15 times since the end of August, suggesting he’ll be fit for a respectable debut. He’s bred to thrive running two turns, so I’m excited to see what kind of effort New Dawn can produce with hot jockey Samy Camacho in the saddle.