How to bet the late Pick 4 on Hawthorne's Friday card
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The late pick 4 begins in race 6 on Friday at Hawthorne with a 50-cent base minimum and low 15 percent takeout. Recently announced, this pool will be guaranteed at $25,000 through the remainder of the meet every Friday.
In race 6, the top Power Pick is No. 6 Valley Vista (9-2 morning line). This horse won his last start and now is cutting back in distance from 6 1/2 furlongs to 5 1/2. He should be involved early, though I disagree that he'll be the speed of the speed. A concerning trainer stat for Joel Campbell leads me to lean in another direction, as he is 0-for-32 with horses returning 31-60 days after their last start.
The one dictating fractions could be No. 4 Just Right Mike (4-1). The last time he got his picture taken was in June at Canterbury going the 5 1/2 furlong distance. He's now first off the claim for trainer Blanca Candelas, who is 14 percent with this move, albeit with a small sample size of only seven. In race 7, No. 7 Hallie's Rainbow (4-1) is projected to be the one controlling the tempo early. According to the Pace Report, she could be lone speed. Lightly raced compared with many other contenders in this field, she'll be making her fourth career start.
An interesting price in race 8 is No. 3 C F V Wicked Red (10-1), who will have jockey Alexis Centeno aboard. Centeno rode for the first time in C F V Wicked Red's last start, which was a win. According to the Jockey Report, Centeno is winning on dirt at 29 percent. Based on the odds of his mounts, his expected win percent is 14 percent, resulting in an exceptional HRN Impact Score of +111 percent. In race 9, the final leg of the late pick 4, No. 12 Little Mighty Man (7-2) is at the top of the Charting Horse Value sheet. In the PFDS Odds column, Little Mighty Man and No. 4 Richiesgotswagger (9-2) are fairly close. This could indicate that one might be the better bet over the other if there's a decent odds discrepancy between the two. The horse that receives the "C+" spot play designation is No. 6 High Hero (30-1). Although his last two races haven't been much, he'll be making his third start off a brief freshening and stretching out an extra half furlong. His last win was at this six-furlong distance over a sloppy track in May, so this might be a price worth considering if there's some rainy weather.
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