Prevalence may give Godolphin 3 chances at 1st Kentucky Derby win

Godolphin’s highly regarded Prevalence will make his stakes debut in Saturday’s Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Racetrack.

The nine-furlong test for 3-year-olds is the final local Kentucky Derby qualifier, awarding 100-40-20-10 points to the top four finishers.

Godolphin seeks its first Kentucky Derby win but could have as many as three entries on the first Saturday in May with unbeaten Champion 2-Year-Old Essential Quality, who runs in Saturday’s Grade 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland, and UAE Derby (G2) winner Rebel’s Romance.

If Prevalence is to join Godolphin’s Derby contingent, he’ll need to finish first or second in the Wood Memorial to garner the required qualifying points.

Unbeaten in two starts, the son of multiple champion-producing stallion Medaglia d’Oro has yet to start at graded-stakes level. The talented bay colt shined going seven furlongs on debut on Jan. 23 at Gulfstream Park, winning by 8 1/2 lengths in paid workout-like fashion.

The debut score had trainer Brendan Walsh and Godolphin USA president Jimmy Bell considering going right into graded stakes company in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on Feb. 27 at Gulfstream Park. However, a fever altered the colt’s training schedule and the connections called an audible, with Prevalence returning victorious in a one-turn optional-claiming mile on March 11 at Gulfstream.

“I really think that’s the goodness of having an allowance race,” Bell said. “A lot of time you get that wow factor of a first performance and then you don’t get that in their second race. In all fairness, it is their lifetime second start, so they are still figuring things out. That’s more natural than an issue. Perhaps it’s maybe a blessing in going back in an allowance race. He got good experiences in both races. To have those two races under his belt, they were both progressive steps.”

Prevalence breezed a stiff half-mile in 47.60 seconds at Palm Meadows Training Center on Sunday, the fastest of 30 works at the distance.

“His last work showed that his energy level was where it needed to be,” Bell said. “He went a half in 47 and 3 and galloped out as easy as possible, so his energy level right there said it all. He’s an easy horse to read. You know where he’s at and what he’s feeling. Certainly, the extra time and having the Wood Memorial where it is on the calendar was important.”

Bell said the Wood Memorial will dictate the direction of the horse’s sophomore campaign.

“When the race is finished, he’ll answer all our questions and point us in one direction or another,” Bell said. “We want to let him show us what he is or isn’t or what he can or can’t do. Even if you can’t run a mile and a quarter, there’s good races and great careers that come underneath that.”

Prevalence represents Godolphin's legacy and that of his multiple champion-producing sire Medaglia d’Oro. The prolific stallion has stood at Darley Stud, Godolphin’s breeding division, since 2009 and has been among the leading sires in North America.

Bell identified a similar mental strength between Prevalence and his sire.

“They both have that ability to respond to whatever and however,” Bell said. “They put all their energy into their running. I'm a big believer in mental toughness as well as physical ability. It’s important to have it all from a physical standpoint, but having it mentally all together is also important. During his racing career, Medaglia d’Oro showed up on a lot of big days and was very consistent. This one is consistent so far as well.”

Medaglia d’Oro, a three-time Grade 1-winner, also is the sire of Wood Memorial aspirant Risk Taking, who likely poses the biggest threat to Prevalence.

“It would be nice to see a Medaglia d’Oro in the winner’s circle,” Bell said.

Godolphin enjoyed a record-extending ninth triumph in the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1) Saturday with Mystic Guide, which will be a tough act to follow for the lightly raced Prevalence.

Bell said Mystic Guide will get rest and relaxation after a 3 3/4-length victory in the Dubai World Cup. The son of Ghostzapper trained by Michael Stidham was Godolphin’s first North American-based and -trained Dubai World Cup winner.

Bell said Mystic Guide could return to action this summer at Saratoga Race Course.

“It's been a phenomenal 2021 for him and us both,” Bell said. “Watching him show us the talent he has and that he can get the mile and a quarter distance was gratifying to see. He'll get a pretty good break coming back home after two just unbelievable races this year We’re talking more Saratoga-ish time of the year.”

Never worse than third in eight career starts, Mystic Guide won last year’s Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga before a close second to Happy Saver in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park. After a 4 1/2-month layoff, he returned to action with a six-length win in the Razorback (G3) over a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park en route to Dubai.

“He showed that he can handle any kind of track, it seems,” Bell said. “It’s never an easy assignment to ship halfway around the world and bring your ‘A’ game. He handled it all very well. He showed that he’s made a big development not only physically but mentally as well. It takes a certain type of horse mentally and physically to handle that travel on a big night. He certainly shined on the right evening.”