Analysis: Identifying Omaha Beach's top Breeders' Cup threat

In a first this Breeders’ Cup season, Predicteform Form Cycle Analysis is appearing on Horse Racing Nation, with insights on each runner derived from Predicteform’s proprietary Pace Figures. To learn more about the Predicteform Form Cycle Patterns read our Pattern Guide or watch this short video.

Here's what we can learn from Predicteform when it comes to Saturday's $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile:

1. Giant Expectations: Immediately take notice of the New Pace Top, the most positive dirt pattern and a strong indication of forthcoming improvement. It’s not too surprising, as the NPT came about as he turned back to a seven-furlong sprint for the first time since his initial lifetime start. The two fastest Final Figures are also at 8 furlongs. Would not be too surprised to see an improved mid-pack stalking effort and a rail-skimming final run. He’s the value in the field.

2. Improbable: One whose Final Figures are too slow, a 74.8 and 73.8, in his last two starts. He’s got big dirt spread of 15.5 (Final Figure minus four-furlong figure) from the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), but that type of running style likely won’t fit against these top milers.

3. Spun to Run: His Final Pace Figures are three points (or more) slower than the rest of the field.

4. Mr. Money. This is an excellent example of the difference between the past performances and Predicteform Pace Figures. If you just look at PPs, Mr. Money has the look of a horse who likes to be on the lead or sitting second. However, when considering the Pace Figures, Mr. Money has three consecutive widening double-digit dirt spreads in his last three starts. These big dirt spreads are the sign of a horse getting faster later in the race. Now we have a turn back in distance, shortening to a mile off a couple of nine-furlong routes. His Form Cycle Pattern actually looks like he’ll come from off the pace because his dirt spreads are much stronger than the rest of the field. We expect Mr. Money to eat up ground the last eighth of the race and close faster than the competition. Solid consideration in first two slots.

5. Omaha Beach: The most consistent performer in the field who has run 78-79 his last four starts. What is also evident, and this is by comparing his Fastest Final Figure to the rest of the field, is Omaha Beach has only run the sixth-fastest final figure in the field. This means he’s got more potential to run a big number than not. His average dirt spread over the last four races is just .18, which means he runs about the same pace at a half mile as he does at the finish — what you want to see from a miler. The most likely winner and a must use in both first and second.

6. Ambassador: International shipper.

7. Coal Front: The win on Sept. 21 at Parx was not surprising to us, nor to the betting public, as he paired up two positive Form Cycle Patterns in the two races prior. The New Pace Top on Belmont Stakes day in the Met Mile (G1) is the strongest Form Cycle Pattern while the Reversal shows the first time a horse runs a faster Final Figure than half-mile figure. However, most critical to his Form Cycle analysis is the three race negative progression with Final Figures, which is not appealing.

8. Blue Chipper: International shipper.

9. Diamond Oops: A pure sprinter who has run only one race where his Final Figure was faster than the half-mile figure. That was until last out when they moved to dirt and he changed his running style, which is supposed to happen, as turf is a game of acceleration (each quarter gets faster) while dirt racing is deceleration (each quarter gets slower). His second most-recent start shows a Delayed Pace Top, which is a positive sign for horses moving back to dirt. Though, from the looks of dirt spread here, this one is more of a type who could falter in the last eighth.

10. Snapper Sinclair: Final Pace Figures are more than five points slower than the rest of the field. 

About Predicteform

Originally developed by legendary professional horse player Cary Fotias from watching more than 100,000 races, Predicteform.com Pace Figures will tell you if a horse is likely to get better or worse in its next start. The Predicteform.com Pace Figures are not just a single final speed number but rather a series of numbers at the key points in a race which are incredibly powerful in predicting the positive and negative Form Cycle Patterns of a horse.